ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, R ANGEL KATELYN

FIRST RACE

Absolutely sensational Festival Day card gets under way at 12:12 ET and with a rematch among several who ran in the Festival Preview finale for this same $6,250 tag here Feb. 10. J B QUICK wasn’t one of those, as he has spent his 2017-18 meet knocking heads with a slightly better brand; draws favorably here when liable to trip out nicely under Camacho. Likewise, GENTRIFY has taken on tougher and now drops aggressively for Handal; usual show of speed could make him elusive out front. BIG AWESOME was 2nd as the fave behind ABIE in the 2/10 key race and now returns 4 weeks later under new silks for J.Johns, who’s had a productive winter here.

SECOND RACE

Wellllp, it won’t take long at all for the Pletcher stable to flaunt its strength and depth, as the million-dollar baby RULER OF THE NILE comes unveiled here; all the elements you’ve come to expect from Todd are in place, most notably the flashy pedigree and extensive series of morning drills; eager to see what he can do with Johnny V. up. Just to his inside, BOSTON BREEZE ran creditably in his debut last summer at Gulf and now returns after being regrouped by “the other” Chad up in Ocala; can share. MY DREAM debuts for Shug and the Phippses when drawing the tricky rail slot.

THIRD RACE

Making an educated guess that Chad will have MIGHTY SCARLETT ready to roll at first asking after giving the Scat Daddy filly plenty of time to learn the ropes; $260k 2yo purchase gets Irad after a dozen works at PmM since mid-December, which doesn’t even count the 11 official works she had from mid-May to mid-Sept. at Bridlewood, Saratoga, and Belmont; darn near a grizzled veteran. FORTUNE KITTY debuts for top local trainer Delacour, whose prowess with young grassers is becoming known far and wide; tote may yield the most valuable clues. SISTER SUNDAY can benefit from her first start over the course for Clement, while several others bear watching in an inordi- nately deep MSW, including BREAKFAST POND, MISSOURIA, and GALILEO’S MELODY.

FOURTH RACE

Here’s another pricey firster from the Pletcher barn that should inspire fear and respect from the horseplaying multitudes: ALBEROBELLO, a $475k purchase from a mare (Carson Jen) who already has produced a G1 winner (A Z Warrior) among her 4 stakes-winning progeny; plenty of Palm Beach prep beneath her, as you’d expect. INNOCENT steps forth for perennially underrated connections (The Family Humphrey) with a couple of Payson bullets in the holster; liable to be a runner. MONKEY MIND came well-bet when making her debut in a minor stake last fall in Delaware; show of improvement very likely.

FIFTH RACE

Put a big red line through that main-track debacle by RIVER EVANGELIST at Gulf in January, and suddenly this Tapit 4yo looks pretty solid when moving back to the grass; something approaching the whirlwind rally he made in his Nola debut could overcome all here. JAGR shot-and-scored 3 times last summer over the Gulf turf but has settled for

minor shares in most of his races since then; does have the Beyers and overall credentials to be a major player here, especially with Irad taking the call. GAIN GROUND has run two solid races in as many starts over the turf.

SIXTH RACE

Seven filly-mare sprinters who ran here three weeks ago in the Minaret are back for this overnight stakes, including the respective 2-3-4 finishers, all of whom follow here (albeit not necessarily in that order). R ANGEL KATELYN, the day’s best, draws favorably in the open-air outside box when picking up the Eclipse champion jock, J.Ortiz; stalkand-see trip will have her looming large when the real running begins. STORMY EMBRACE is the O’Connell prototype, consistent and hard-hitting; in the midst of it all once again. GRAND PRIX ran a huge one before being passed in the late stages by Just Be Kind in the key race; comes a player again.

SEVENTH RACE

That was quite a flashy debut score by ONE FAST RIDE here three weeks ago, and now the Candy Ride colt adds Lasix and Irad when jumping right up in class in this second running of the Columbia, the leadoff event in the all-stakes pick-5 (races 7-11); easy Palm Beach breeze in the interim for Weaver furthers his readiness. Another Palm Beach shipper, GIDU, likely will come favored here for the TAP powerhouse following that near-miss in the G3 Dania Beach; and, deservedly so. BLUEBLOOD has Casse talking like he might become a real good one; difficult task off an 8-month layoff, but the talent clearly is there.

EIGHTH RACE

Nearly two-year layoff been no prob whatsoever for RAFTING, whose back-to-back scores over the local surface could make him tough to overcome when well-drawn here in the Challenger; can take it up yet another notch in the 3rd race of his form cycle. YOU’RE TO BLAME dominated 2x alw. types at Gulf last out for TAP and certainly fits with these; rarely a subpar effort. WAR STORY has been a punching bag for the big-namers but can boast a flashy bankroll and Beyers; wondering if the 8 1/2 furlongs might prove a bit short for him despite the apparent class edge.

NINTH RACE

Incredible renewal of the G2 Hillsborough offers many alluring choices, but we’ll settle for OFF LIMITS, assuming she can get all 9 of these furlongs; running style suggests she fires harder going a mile or so, but yeah, that last-out G1 triumph in the Matriarch is quite the referral; the power of Chad for all others to surmount. DADDYS LIL DARLING has blossomed into the top-class filly McPeek always thought she would be, with her G1 Am. Oaks being well-earned; been training right along over at Payson; another big year ahead. LA CORONEL was away a bit tardily in the Endeavour when soundly defeated by Dona Bruja; alert break may give her a tactical advantage over the other two G1 winners. LOVELY BERNADETTE, PROCTOR’S LEDGE, and FOURSTAR CROOK all picked a tough year to try to win a Hillsborough.

TENTH RACE

Either of the French-bred 3yo fillies here for the G3 Fla. Oaks for Chad seem entirely capable, with SALSA BELLA getting the slight edge from this corner over ALTEA on the basis of having had a start on North American soil. Have to think they’ll both fire hard down the lane; that’s just the way it is with Chad. CLOSER STILL, like several others in here including the top pick, gave futile chase to Thewayiam over at Gulf; that’s a point in her favor, given how that filly has now won 3 turf stakes already this year across the peninsula. ALMOND ROCA, easily best in a couple of local sprint stakes, is being considered for Ascot, hence the new endeavor of going long on grass; distance might not suit. ANDINA DEL SUR and GOODTHINGSTAKETIME merit respect.

ELEVENTH RACE

The Pletcher domination of the Tampa Bay showcase in recent years can continue today if VINO ROSSO gets the right kind of trip behind Johnny V., waiting off the abundant speed while saving ground as those new blinks help him focus; has the foundation to prove he has what it takes to move forward on the Derby trail. UNTAMED DOMAIN looks to return the West Point folks to the promised land; connections are optimistic this classy dude will be equally effective on dirt as he’s been on grass. QUIP comes well-prepped by Brisset, the former Mott asst. who’s quietly confident in the colt; price will be right. FLAMEAWAY did nothing wrong in the Sam Davis, but have to wonder how he’ll fare with a far different race shape here, i.e., the presence of the speedy WORLD OF TROUBLE. ENTICED and FREE DROP BILLY both are crossentered in the Gotham at Aqu, so that’s something to monitor vis-à-vis them being scratched.