ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, PACIFIC STRIKE

FIRST RACE

Santa Anita Handicap day, first post 12 noon, and a wide-open maiden turf sprint to kick off the card. FRENCHMEN STREET ran the best race of his fourstart career last time in his initial try on the hill, finishing fourth in a race from which the first- and seventh-place finishers returned to win. First-time starters LONTANI and CALL WEST appear to have worked well for Bob Baffert, who is 1-for-3 with first-time starters on the hill (past five years). The debut winner turned out to be a good one: Collected. CAPALL makes his first start for Peter Miller, first on turf, following a runner-up finish on synthetic at Golden Gate. Seven-start maiden BIG BUZZ cuts back to a sprint for the first time, and adds blinkers. Late threat?

SECOND RACE

MCKALE debuts with a string of sharp workouts for Baffert, who is 5-for-10 this meet with debut 3yos on dirt. BOBBY AXELROD debuts with a string of sharp works for Miller. HIGHLY DISTORTED is another first-time starter with solid works for Jack Carava, including a bullet three furlongs Tuesday morning that suggests his is ready to rip. SUPER SOL is a second Baffert firster. This might not be the strongest field of 3yo maidens this winter.

THIRD RACE

MESUT sprinted all five starts, but his style suggests he is begging for a route of ground. He finally stretches out to a mile and one-eighth in this turf N1X. Considering he finished sixth last out at odds of 5-1, he should offer wagering value. CALIFORNIA STREET is first-time turf, which is fine considering his sire is the top turf stallion Street Boss. The main-track maiden win two starts back by ‘STREET would be fast enough. Also-eligible UNAPOLOGETIC drops from N2X to run for the optional $40k claim tag. He won this condition last summer at Del Mar. Lightly raced WELL DEVELOPED seeks his third straight after maiden and Cal-bred N1X wins.

FOURTH RACE

Without champion sprinter Roy H in the field, CITY OF LIGHT is the horse to beat in this seven-furlong G1. He wired the Malibu Stakes opening day, and continues to blaze away in the morning (five of seven works since raced were fastest of the day). Comfortably drawn near the outside, with tactical speed and a versatile style, the consistent colt is the one to beat. He is no sure thing however, because Malibu runner-up EDWARDS GOING LEFT continues to improve. He followed his Malibu with a crushing Cal-bred stakes win in fast time. He is quick enough to establish position from the inside post. GIANT EXPECTATIONS, cross-entered in the Big ‘Cap, may have a better chance in this sprint. The best effort of his career was his only sevenfurlong start on “fast,” a G2 win last summer at Del Mar. CAPTAIN SCOTTY is 2-for-2 and up in class following a sharp a N1X in his California debut.

FIFTH RACE

Wager on the the most likely winner, or back the most likely overlay? Although the favorite in this G1 turf mile will be tough to beat, longshot CHANNEL MAKER is worth backing at a price following a tough-trip fifth in a Gulfstream Park nine-furlong G1. The come-from-behinder’s effort was better than it looks; the pace was slow (winner led wire to wire), CHANNEL MAKER was blocked into the lane, and finished fast when he got clear. The odds should be high for the Grade 1-placed stretchrunner. Tab for an upset. Of course, he faces a

formidable rival that will be heavily favored. That is 2017 champion turf male/Breeders’ Cup Mile winner WORLD APPROVAL. His recent comeback was solid; he has tactical speed to create a good trip and enters with only one knock. That is, price. His odds will be short. BOWIES HERO made up a ton of ground last time in a G3 won by the pacesetter. That race was won by OM, who was aggressively ridden and wired the field. Same tactics again here? If so, that would benefit top choice upset candidate CHANNEL MAKER.

SIXTH RACE

At least for this Grade 2 in early March, MCKINZIE holds the advantage over comebacker BOLT D’ORO. That could change next month in the Santa Anita Derby when both colts will be racingfit. MCKINZIE raced just two months ago; BOLT D’ORO is making his first start in four months. The last-out win by MCKINZIE was very good. He went the final quarter in :24.33; only one other horse this winter (Mopotism) went the final quarter of a dirt mile (“fast”) in less than 25 seconds. In addition to his kick, MCKINZIE also has tactical speed. The three-for-three colt (G1 via dq) will have the jump over his main rival. Tough to beat with a front-running/pace-pressing trip. BOLT D’ORO has not started since a wide-trip third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he worked well for his return and looks super physically. Possibly the best 2yo in the country last year (wide trip in BC), BOLT D’RO is likely to run well in this comeback, and run better next month with a comeback under his belt. KANTHAKA won a sprint stakes last out that fell apart in favor of his closing style. So is he a late-running sprinter, or can he get a route? This is his first try around two turns. AQUILA has improved every start; AYACARA will rally late; LOMBO adds speed.

SEVENTH RACE

ALLABOUTACTION trounced $25k claiming sprinters last out in fast final time, and moves up sharply in class to N1X/optional $40k claiming. This is only his third start following a layoff; he is a fresh horse on his way back up the ladder. COILS GOLD ran like a horse that needed a start last time, a third-place comeback behind two good rivals. The winner Captain Scotty has an upset chance in the G1 Triple Bend (race 4); runner-up Big League returned to win by four lengths and is entered back in this race. COILS GOLD should move up second start back. STONE HANDS dropped into a restricted $25k claiming sprint, won by seven lengths, and also moves up in class. Perhaps the confidencebuilding win woke him up. BIG LEAGUE has won three of his last four.

EIGHTH RACE

FINESS BERE is spotted to upset this turf mile stakes for 3yo fillies, following better-than-looked efforts her first two U.S. starts. She was blocked, buried and finished well in her fourth-place U.S. debut. Next out, her closing rally was ineffective in a downhill sprint over a course that, at the time, was decidedly pro-speed. Now she stretches back to a mile, and with a clean trip can score a come-from-behind upset. Baffert has won four turf races already this year. CALIFORNIAGOLDRUSH accomplished a difficult feat in her second start. That is, stretch out and defeat allowance winners after an upset win in her career debut in a sprint. The 2-for-2 filly gets another class test in this $75k stakes; she might be this good. IPPODAMIA’S GIRL followed her maiden win last fall with a victory in an $85k stakes at a mile on turf. She will be forwardly placed.

NINTH RACE

This $12.5k claiming sprint, non-winners of two lifetime positioned smack in the middle of five stakes, sets up for class-drop late-runner LIBERTY JACK. His off-the-pace maiden-20 win two back would be fast enough. Overmatched last out, this is his first try at the N2L level, a class often often won by horses racing at the bottom for the first time. DAD’S A GAMBLER also has a closing style that suits the pace scenario; he finished in the money three straight at this level. ROCKY’S SHOW is quick, possibly the speed of the speed.

TENTH RACE

MUBTAAHIJ is poised for a Big ‘Cap upset over likely favorite ACCELERATE. But it’s a close call. MUBTAAHIJ ran better than it appears last out finishing third behind chief his rival. MUBTAAHIJ surprisingly found himself setting the pace (not his preferred style), stuck in there to deep stretch, and tired. He trained exceptionally well since, his races at a mile and one-quarter are solid, he gets jockey Mike Smith and sheds blinkers. Baffert has won with 7 of his last 15 “blinkers-off” starters, and is 5-for-16 in the Big ‘Cap. MUBTAAHIJ has a significant deficit to make up on ACCELERATE, who finished more than four lengths in front of him last time. ACCELERATE overcame a rocky trip (off slow, shuffled and steadied backstretch) to defeat several he will meet again including the top choice. The only subpar race by ACCELERATE was the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in which he was compromised by a foot issue. No knocks on ability, the question for ACCELERATE is distance. He finished third his only previous start at a mile and one-quarter. TOP OF THE GAME, four-for-five at Santa Anita, has a longshot chance. He is rounding into form after a winter of misfortune. He had a tough trip in November, disliked turf in January and did not train that great into his most recent start in February. But since then, he has trained very well. If he reproduces his romping stakes win here in October, and if he can stay a mile and a quarter, he could upset. HOPPERTUNITY is top-class veteran that will roll late, although he prefers a softer track than is likely Saturday. Rain is expected later in the day; the surface could be “tighter” than he prefers. GIANT EXPECTATIONS is cross-entered in the Triple Bend; he has speed. FEAR THE COWBOY arrived this week from Florida. The nine-time winner will roll late.