ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, MAGNIFICENT Q T

FIRST RACE

First post 11:30 a.m. Although rain is in the forecast, four of the nine Sunday races are scheduled for turf including this mile race for Cal-bred fillies. INLAND EMPIRE is bred to handle two turns (by Empire Way, produced by Lemon Drop Kid mare). ‘EMPIRE stretches out after closing ground in two sprints; the race in which she finished third last time out already produced three next-out winners. If she is more than a closing sprinter, ‘EMPIRE can handle this field. She is trained by Peter Eurton, who also entered NOTHING BUT HEAT. The latter stretches back to two turns; she pressed the pace and finished a creditable fourth last out in a sprint. She is quick enough to make the lead, and as a sibling to G3 marathon winner How Unusual, one mile should be fine. SUPER PATRIOT is an eightstart maiden with modest ability. That qualifies her as a contender in this apparently modest field.

SECOND RACE

The runner-up debut by MAGNIFICENT Q T was better than it looks on paper, and sets her up for a win second time out while moving up slightly to maiden-30. In her debut, she was shuffled early, blocked on the turn, split horses in the lane and finished big. She lost by more than four lengths, but with a clean trip she would have given the winner a battle. OH MY SOUL improved second out, fourth in a Cal-bred maiden-50. Down another notch to open maiden-30 she is headed the right direction. A wet track would be fine; she was sired by top wet-track sire Kafwain. ALL NET was in tough in a maiden-50 turf route; she returns to the class and surface on which she finished second two starts back. The uncertainty is distance; all four starts were routes. She will be rolling late.

THIRD RACE

Scheduled for turf, this Cal-bred N1X includes FAST AS CASS, who would benefit if the race is moved to a wet main track. Eight days ago, ‘CASS stretched to a route, caught a “wet fast” track and crushed maidens by more than five. The gelding wheels back on short notice, and if the race is moved to wet dirt he could be gone. If the race stays on turf, SIX POINT RACK becomes the top choice. In the money three straight at this Calbred N1X condition, he makes his first start in two months with a history of firing first start following a layoff. His speed figures are among the highest in the field. VIOLENT RIDGE finished second last out in a $200k Calbred stakes for 3yos, while nearly four lengths clear of third. Turf would be something new, however. CLOSING TIME goes long again after a closing second in a Calbred turf sprint; KINGS RIVER KING was “fast” last summer based on figs, but this is his first since August.

FOURTH RACE

A promising runner-up debut by WE ALL HAVE DREAMS stamps the second-start filly the one to beat in a special-weight sprint that came up seemingly short on speed. With a front-running or pace-pressing trip, the Shackleford filly should be tough to beat at a short price. CYRIELLE makes her California debut, first start on dirt, and first for trainer Peter Miller. Except for the top choice, this field came up modest. Good spot for a new shooter. VINAKA finished fifth in her comeback on turf. The lightly raced filly returns to the main track and figures prominently off her runner-up finish last summer in her career debut in a stakes race. TWO STEPS FASTER is a five-start maiden who showed improved speed last out when blinkers were added.

FIFTH RACE

JUSTIFY ran off the screen in his debut, winning by more than nine lengths with a 104 Beyer Figure. The colt trained super before and after the romping victory, he is bred for two turns and looks tough to beat in this one-mile N1X for 3yos. Blinkers off, next stop graded stakes. The son of Scat Daddy is trained by Bob Baffert, who also entered maiden sprint winner CURLY’S ROCKET. The latter won last out in decisive fashion; from the inside post on the stretch-out he is likely to set the pace and give his stablemate a target to chase. Pending track condition, a front-running “upset” by CURLY’S ROCKET

is not out of the question. PEPE TONO had no shot last time; the race unfolded at a modest tempo, was won by the pacesetter, and the closers made only minimal impact. PEPE TONO is a deep closer, though the addition of blinkers could put him closer to the front. His pace-assisted maiden win two starts back was very good.

SIXTH RACE

This $20k claiming mile is scheduled for turf. On either surface, WONDERFUL LIE is the one to beat. She switches riders, drops in class and stretches back to two turns after a rocky trip in a downhill sprint. She has raced two turns on turf only three times in her career, one second and one third. If the race is moved to a wet main track, no problem. Two wet-track starts produced a win and a second. SCATTERLING exits a pair of productive turf miles. Her third-by-a-length finish last out was flattered when the winner returned to win again; her runner-up-by-a-neck finish two back also was flattered when the winner returned to win again. Consistent mare in good current form. SALSITA goes first off the claim by Peter Miller; she is a 10-for-48 pro that has run well on turf, dirt and synthetic. PEACH COVE drops to the lowest level of her career; LOOKINFORADANGER will be setting or pressing the pace.

SEVENTH RACE

Except for the inside post, AIRFOIL looks solid in this $16k claiming sprint. Claimed from a runnerup finish at this level last out, repeatedly proven at this seven-furlong specialty distance, the gelding is one of the fastest in the field on figures. For what it’s worth, he won a MSW sprint four years ago on this track after breaking from the rail. KOCHEES will attempt an ambitious class hike, from a sharp win for $8k, up to $16k. He was an allowance-caliber horse early in his career, so the class hike is reasonable. He also wins more than his fair share. He is 9 for 36. MATRICULATE ran too good to lose eight days ago. He chased a fast pace, opened up three lengths in the lane, and then got collared by a deep closer while finishing clear of third. That race was two turns; he has always seemed best around one turn. TOP BRASS is another sharp veteran moving up from a decisive win for $12.5k; WELL MEASURED will press the pace from the outside. This claiming sprint is deep; lots of ways to go.

EIGHTH RACE

This sprint stakes for Cal-breds is scheduled for six and a half on the hill; rain could force a switch to the main. Either way, trainer Peter Miller holds the aces with RICHARD’S BOY and FLY TO MARS. Before he became a top grass sprinter (runner-up in Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint), RICHARD’S BOY was an accomplished main-track runner. He has tactical speed, can be positioned slightly off the pace, and usually creates his own good racing luck. Top choice, turf or dirt. FLY TO MARS is quick, possibly the one to catch. He finished second last out behind a good stablemate (Calculator) in a turf stakes. A move to dirt might not benefit the gelding, but he is fast. So is CHIEF HOSA, who would be setting or pressing the pace. He probably needs turf for his best shot, however. MASOCHISTIC was once good enough. But the G1 winner finished next to last in his odds-on comeback. Uncertain form.

NINTH RACE

FRIENDLY REQUEST shows up at rock bottom ($12.5k claiming, N2L) for her first start since last April. She runs well fresh; trainer Phil D’Amato has a 24-percent win rate (17-for-70, past five years) with comebackers off six months or more. RECKLESS CHARM is a 1-for-25 mare racing for the first time at the bottom class level. Her speed figures are appropriate, her current form is decent. MISS NAPPER TANDY looms the upset candidate. Although she needed 20 starts to finally win a maiden race last out, perhaps the light bulb finally went on. Last-out maiden-claiming winners are always “live” against N2L winners.