Surging Pony Up solid in Jeff Ruby

NEW YORK – Santa Anita has the Grade 1 race Saturday with the $400,000 Santa Margarita, but Oaklawn has the big money with the Grade 2, $900,000 Rebel Stakes, which is supported by the Grade 2, $350,000 Azeri, and the $300,000 Essex Handicap. The Rebel is a Kentucky Derby qualifying event worth a total of 85 points, but it’s not the only such race Saturday. There is also the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes (no, I’m not kidding!) at Turfway Park, which offers a total of 34 Derby points.

One other Grade 2 stakes Saturday is the $200,000 Inside Information at Gulfstream.

Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes

Hazit and Ride a Comet are co-favorites in this race at 5-1 on the morning line. You don’t see that very often.

I’m against those two, and instead have it down to Blended Citizen, Archaggelos, and Pony Up. Blended Citizen ships from California off a gaining third in the El Camino Real Derby to Paved, a nice filly who previously was a strong winner on turf at Santa Anita with an 88 Beyer Figure. Archaggelos was a dominant winner of the Grey Stakes last fall in his first start on a synthetic surface, earning a 76 Beyer that he figures to improve on with merely typical improvement from age 2 to 3. And if he does, it would put him right in the mix.

But Florida shipper Pony Up is the one for me.

Pony Up was out of his element on dirt last time in the Holy Bull, finishing a distant fifth to Audible, a top Kentucky Derby candidate, after a three- to four-wide trip around the track, which certainly didn’t help. But Pony Up’s fast-closing second in the Kitten’s Joy on Gulfstream’s turf two starts back is what makes him a win candidate. Pony Up was beaten only a neck in that one by Flameaway, who came back to win the Sam Davis with a 93 Beyer over the highly regarded Remsen winner Catholic Boy, and who finished a sharp second in last week’s Tampa Bay Derby.

The Kentucky Cup Classic goes two races before the Ruby, and I like Camelot Kitten. In his younger days, before a forgettable 2017 campaign, Camelot Kitten was every bit the equal of Beach Patrol, one of last year’s best turf horses. But Camelot Kitten ran respectably most recently when fourth in the John B. Connally Stakes in his first start for trainer Mike Maker after being hard held early off a slow pace, and then showing real run when four wide on the third and final turn. There’s lots of pace in this one, and Camelot Kitten can rally and pick up the pieces.

Azeri Stakes

Martini Glass finished behind Tiger Moth and Actress when third in the Houston Ladies Classic early this year, and meets those two again Saturday. I look for her to gain revenge. Martini Glass was closer to a pace in Houston that collapsed than Tiger Moth and Actress, and then dove to the rail in the stretch to make her run, a move I feel rarely works. Most importantly, Martini Glass came back with a strong effort to upset the Royal Delta Stakes, beating Lewis Bay, a classy multiple Grade 2 and 3 stakes winner who finished third in the 2016 Kentucky Oaks.

As for the Rebel, which goes right after the Azeri, I prefer Magnum Moon over Solomini. Solomini makes his first start since being the victim of a bad disqualification in the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity when he beat McKinzie, who himself was the victim of a bad disqualification in last week’s San Felipe. But Magnum Moon has shown enormous potential winning his first two starts, gaining about four races’ worth of education going long in his last outing.

Santa Margarita Stakes

Unique Bella’s cough turned this race from what would have been an exhibition into an intriguing betting opportunity. There’s plenty of speed here, and I have my doubts that many entered really want the nine-furlong distance. It’s a good spot to take a shot with the turf-to-dirt mover Fault.

I’m not sure Fault really wants dirt. However, she is a capable closer, which fits the pace scenario, and she has no trouble going nine furlongs on turf. Moreover, Fault comes into this off her best performance yet, a victory in the Buena Vista in her first start for trainer Phil D’Amato, all of which makes her a worthwhile option at a square price.