Rankings aid Turfway analysis

The number of significant race cards over synthetic surfaces has slowed to a trickle in North America, but one of the remaining standouts comes Saturday with the Jeff Ruby Steaks card at Turfway Park.

With opportunities for highlevel synthetic racing dwindling, it can be a challenge to gauge a horse’s capability over the surface. Of the 60 horses entered in the five stakes races on the Jeff Ruby card, 49 have raced two times or fewer over an all-weather track.

Pedigree can be a useful tool to gauge capability when ontrack form is minimal, and the Beyer Sire Performance Rankings can help identify runners by sires proficient at getting elite synthetic horses, along with sires that are a liability with synthetic runners.

Three sires stand out in the Jeff Ruby field as especially capable of producing a high-end synthetic runner.

Shackleford (sire of Jeff Ruby starter Dreamer’s Point) has shown good results on all-weather tracks, with just three crops of racing age. His runners have tallied two 90-plus synthetic Beyers, for a field-leading 3.28 percent of 61 starts on the surface. (All figures are from 2014 to present.) He also tops the group by synthetic winning percentage at 28 percent, led this year by Wellabled, who earned a 107 winning the Forego Stakes at Turfway in January.

Following closely behind is War Front (Hazit), whose five races at the 90-plus Beyer point account for 2.84 percent of his 176 overall synthetic starts.

Tiznow (Zanesville) checks in third, with 13 efforts meeting or exceeding a 90 Beyer making up 2.37 percent of his 549 starts. He is also the only sire in the field with multiple 100-plus efforts, owing to Game On Dude’s 2014 campaign, where he charted as high as 117.

On the opposite end of the Jeff Ruby spectrum are Temple City (Archaggelos) and Uncle Mo (Arawak), who are both still seeking their first 90-plus synthetic Beyers from 224 starts and 109 starts, respectively. Uncle Mo has the field’s co-lowest synthetic winning percentage over that span, at 12 percent.

The Bourbonette Oaks lacks sire power in terms of synthetic performance. Seven of the field’s 11 sires have not had a 90-plus all-weather Beyer since 2014, and the leader is Two Step Salsa (Homemade Salsa), whose three Beyers at that point comprise 1.06 percent of his starts.

First Samurai (Bet She Wins) has 20 percent winners on synthetic over the past five years, though none hit the 90-plus Beyer range from 320 starts.

The Kentucky Cup Classic’s 90-plus Beyer percentages are led by War Front (Designed for War) and Tiznow (Royal Son).

Giant’s Causeway (Chip Leader) also stands out in the field, with five of his runners earning 100-plus Beyers since 2014, making up 2.14 percent of his 764 starts. Meanwhile, Yes It’s True (The Truth Or Else) is without a 90-plus Beyer in 485 starts.

Pioneerof the Nile (Road to Damascus) has established himself as a strong synthetic sire, leading the Rushaway Stakes with 4.57 percent of his starts, 8 of 175, earning a 90-plus Beyer. His synthetic runners win at a 21 percent clip.

Speightstown (Oskar Blues) also showed himself well among the Rushaway sires, hitting the 90-plus mark with 3.46 percent of his runners.

A pair of under-the-radar sires stood out among the Latonia Stakes field, with Flower Alley (Sky Flower) hitting the 90-plus mark in 3.61 percent of his starts, 10 of 277, while Pure Prize reached the threshold 3.05 percent of the time, 9 of 295. However, those stallions win on synthetic at 12 percent and 8 percent respectively, creating a feast-or-famine setup.

Successful Appeal (Julerette), F us aichiPe ga sus( Apology not accepted ), and Blame( No Sweat), are each without a 90-plus synthetic runner from 188 or more starts.