ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, MOUNT CALVARY

FIRST RACE

JINGLE ME THIS has improved with each subsequent start since returning from a December freshening, and might poised to break through in the fourth race of his form cycle. He could have a good trip tracking the speed on the outside. NORMANDY CROSSING should be favored off a front-running score in an identical spot. He has the same Timeform US early pace rating as GLADTOBEHERE, and could get caught up in a speed duel with that rival. SHARM was a wide second behind NORMANDY CROSSING in his best recent performance Feb. 16.

SECOND RACE

DA BULLET is debuting with a speed pedigree, for a trainer who’s won at a 20% clip with first-timers over the past five years ($1.72 ROI). His sire, a G2-winning sprinter, is 5 for 14 (36%) with firsters. His dam produced two stakes-winning sprinters, including one here on the Polytrack, along with a stakes-placed debut winner. FRENCH CURVE showed speed before fading the only time he saw action in a key maiden special route on the grass at Ellis Park. The nicely-bred son of Tiznow is a halfbrother to G1 winner Square Eddie. His trainer has solid numbers with new shooters. BATTERBATTERSWING weakened to third after pressing the pace at first asking in a shorter maiden special.

THIRD RACE

PEACE OF EKATI worked extensively on trainer Michael Dickinson’s synthetic Tapeta surface in Maryland prior to a six-furlong breeze in 1:13.60 here last Saturday. The Fipke homebred is by the 13% debut sire Tale of Ekati, and is out of a G2 stakes winner on turf. ALLURING AMERICAN came up empty off a layoff in his local debut, but the

son of the late super-sire Scat Daddy has since worked a bullet half-mile, and could get back on track. COURAGE AND HONOR has worked fast on Keeneland’s Poly training track since his fade job at first asking here Dec. 28.

FOURTH RACE

ETHYL ETHER graduated third-time out in a maiden special weight sprint a month ago. The lightly-raced daughter of Scat Daddy is out of a stakes winner who’s dropped two route winners, and might welcome the stretchout to a mile. SWEET ELLA has been competitive at this level, and should be prominent in her third start after a long layoff. BEMUS POINT worked at Palm Beach Downs during her time off, and is sent out by a trainer who’s fared well at Gulfstream of late.

FIFTH RACE

TRUE DREAM met tougher last time out at Keeneland when fifth in a maiden special, from which the sixth horse exited to beat $40K maidens at Churchill. She’s worked regularly at the Fair Grounds for capable layoff trainer McPeek, who’s lured the hot SoCal rider Van Dyke. In her first start with Lasix, SHE’S DA NUTS finished a clear second in an identical spot in her local bow. FINAL REWARD checked in third behind the latter when she was bet down to 7-10 Feb. 23. Use her underneath in vertical wagers, along with NECESSARY.

SIXTH RACE

PURELY A DREAM earned a career best 84 Beyer when taking her lone Polytrack excursion in the G3 Bourbonette last March. A recent comeback race on the dirt at the Fair Grounds should set her up for this listed stakes. MINER’S CAT rallied stoutly for second in a six-furlong stakes here two starts ago. She’s worked extensively at Keeneland since running seventh in a two-turn stakes at Oaklawn in her latest. PROUD AND FEARLESS was competitive in graded stakes last year. Also eligible VALENTINE ROSIE has found a home on the Poly.

SEVENTH RACE

VIOLENT STORM came from far back to land a nine-furlong maiden special on yielding turf at Churchill in November. The son of hot second-year sire Violence wintered at Palm Meadows, and has lots of speed to chase in this $75K stakes. ROAD TO DAMASCUS was softened up in a speed duel last time over a muddy track in the G3 Southwest, which came on the heels of a fast (80 Beyer) maiden score at Tampa. FRONT DOOR graduated second-time out over a mile here March 2 for Wise Dan’s esteemed trainer Lopresti. Use him in the exotics, along with OSKAR BLUES.

EIGHTH RACE

ROYAL SON finally reached his potential late last year, when he learned to rate in a stalking position en route to winning back-to-back races here with Beyers of 98 and 105. He’s been working bullets, and his main obstacle might be the nine-furlong distance of this 100-grander. CHIP LEADER has won three in a row on the grass dating back to last summer. He’s been working at Palm Beach Downs, and usually fires in the first start of his form cycle. FAST AND ACCURATE has only found the mark once since taking last year’s G3 Spiral here in an upset, but could have a say in the outcome.

NINTH RACE

QUEEN’S FATE’s lone synthetic track race was deceptively good. She was beaten a nose by one of the leading 2yo fillies at Woodbine in a restricted stakes on Tapeta Dec. 3, when a speed bias and a slow pace hindered her chances. BET SHE WINS romped while putting up a big 90 Beyer in her only synthetic track try in the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes on Polytrack. The comebacker should be quite fit after wintering at Tampa. GO NONI GO beat the top choice last time when fifth on the Gulfstream turf, in a tough G3 stakes that contained two next-out G3 winners.

TENTH RACE

Following an impressive score in the G3 Grey on Woodbine’s Tapeta, ARCHAGGELOS seemed poised to become the leading candidate for Canadian champion 2yo honors in the Dec. 2 Display Stakes, but could only manage fourth as the favorite. The half-brother to classic winner Big Brown has been working on Tapeta at trainer Dickinson’s Maryland operation. He could be dangerous at a square price under Hernandez, who’s had a productive winter riding at Aqueduct. BLENDED CITIZEN is adding blinkers off a closing third in the nine-furlong El Camino Real Derby on Tapeta at Golden Gate. The half-brother to Kentucky Derby runner-up Lookin at Lee has since worked quickly at Santa Anita. MAGICALMEISTER won the local prep at 39-1. Use the son of Bodemeister on the bottom of intra-race bets, along with SKY PROMISE and PONY UP.

ELEVENTH RACE

Horse-for-course MOUNT CALVARY prevailed in a recent one-mile tilt at this level. Note that he romped the last time he cut back from a route to a sprint here Jan. 11. COPPERPLATE improved to second last time in his second race off the bench, and should be close to a peak performance. HOLLYWOOD TALENT held off the latter during a frontrunning triumph at this class Feb. 17. He has other speed to contend with in this big field, but might not need the lead to hit the board.

TWELFTH RACE

KILLAG KATIE is by leading sire Candy Ride, who’s gotten 13% debut winners, including the mighty Gun Runner. The homebred is the first foal from a stakes-placed sprinter on Woodbine’s old Polytrack. TEMPESTUOUS AMY has worked a bullet five-eighths since ending up sixth following a layoff in her local debut. This trainer/rider combo is 4 for 12 at the meet. SHE MIGHT TELL placed in three of her five outings last year at Indiana Grand. Use her underneath in the exotics, along with unraced CHURCH, who’s by a low-percentage first-out sire.