ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

Oaklawn puts on its second biggest program of the year Saturday behind Arkansas Derby Day. There are three major stakes on the program led by the Grade 2, $900K Rebel, a points race for the Kentucky Derby. In the opener, TORRENT is returning to the overnight ranks after facing stakes foes last out in the Grade 3 Bayakoa. She finished a respectable third behind a pair of rivals who are to run back later on the card in the Grade 2, $350K Azeri. JENDA’S AGENDA moves back to two turns and she is a winner at the trip. JENDA’S AGENDA also is appealing on pedigree as her dam was a Grade 2 winner of $750K who had success at Oaklawn. The Grade 3-placed TAXABLE is a fresh face who has a nice record at Oaklawn.

SECOND RACE

ALLIDOISDREAMOFYOU is stuck on the alsoeligible list but would get the nod on class were he to draw into the body of the field. He’s been facing steeper, and last out was beaten less than two lengths for everything after setting the pace over a laboring track. PREACHER TIME should be sharp for the move back to two turns off the sprint comeback race last out at Oaklawn. TEXAS JAMBALAYA is a three-time winner facing some less-experienced rivals. This marks his second start since September.

THIRD RACE

ABBAA was favored against steeper last out when he set the pace over a good track. For the effort he earned what ranks as this field’s best last-race Beyer Figure. ABBAA is a ninetime winner who boasts a 5-for-9 record at Oaklawn and he could show the way or track a few of these. CONSTANTINO exits same race as top choice, and might be well-served with a fast track. He’s caught wet tracks in each of his last two starts, but on a fast track earned his best local Beyer Figure. RUNNING BACK hooked a quality kind of winner two back in Fort Fortitude. He might be sitting on a peak race here, in his third start since November.

FOURTH RACE

TWIST OFF was second last out to a debut winner who earned a Beyer Figure of 87 while getting two turns in his first attempt. This one can be closer to the pace than a number of these, which could give him a tactical advantage. He also owns the field’s best last-race and career Beyer Figure. APPLEWOOD brings a nice foundation of races to the table for the mile and an eighth test. He is from a multiple stakes-winning mare who ran out $352K and for this trip he will add blinkers. ANIMUS exits same race as top choice, running third. LIGHTHAWK is from a Grade 1-winning mare who ran out $365K, while THE MONEY DANCE was third last out to a winner who is entered in the Rebel. THE MONEY DANCE gets in light under apprentice Morales and on a pedigree point is a half-brother to stakes winner Whistle Stop ($248K).

FIFTH RACE

SUTTON IMPACT is on top of his game. He’s won back-to-back races at the meet and both of those wins have come in 1:09 and change. SUTTON IMPACT brings excellent speed to the table and depending on the break has a chance to again wire his rivals. SUNNY’S RAINBOW showed good speed last out in his first start off the layoff, and he could get an ideal tracking trip off top choice, who is drawn to his immediate inside. THE RED DUDE was third to a quality kind of winner last out and the race produced this one’s best career Beyer Figure. THE RED DUDE is a half-brother to Grade 3 winner Kays and Jays ($308K). SHWEET PERSUASION is a half-brother to both Grade 3 winner Awesomemundo ($185K) and multiple stakes winner One Fine Dream ($400K).

SIXTH RACE

CHRIS AND DAVE is appealing as a six-time winner facing some less-experienced rivals. He also finished first in a recent allowance at Oaklawn but was disqualified for interference. CHRIS AND DAVE is moving back to a mile and a sixteenth and the last time he ran at the distance he was second to

a winner who came back to account for the $100K Maxxam Gold Cup at Hou - and who is to run back later on the card in the $300K Essex Handicap.

GIZMO JONES seems like one who can be closer to the pace than he found himself last time, when he encountered some trouble. The Grade 3-placed

GRAY SKY is a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Dearest Trickski ($660K). He was beaten less than two lengths for everything last out when fifth to CHRIS AND DAVE. SOUTH BEACH gets pedigree support for the move to two turns.

SEVENTH RACE

MITOLE was a memorable maiden winner in February and if he runs back to that effort - for which he earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 96 - he might be tough to contain. MITOLE is returning to the overnight ranks following a stakes appearance in which he stumbled at the start, recovered, and finished second. INFINITY SQUARED represented himself well last out in his first start against winners. He has tactical speed and draws a post that might give Cohen options. IKE invades from Santa Anita, where he won his debut last out for the Arkansas-based Westrock Stables. SHANNON C is out of the popular Miranda Diane, a multiple stakes winner of $416K.

EIGHTH RACE

THIRSTFORLIFE has tactical speed, a good race over the local strip, and is a well-bred sort as a son of the Grade 2-winning mare Promenade Girl ($678K) and a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Cavorting ($2M). THIRSTFORLIFE seeks to give Hawley and Lanerie their second win in the handicap series this meet at Oaklawn, as they captured last month’s Razorback with Hawaakom. LEOFRIC won a local allowance over top choice in January at Oaklawn then came back and ran second in the Razorback. UNTRAPPED is proven class as a Grade 3 winner. He might be best served if the strip is fast - the rating over which he won his biggest race, the $400K Oklahoma Derby - and he also would be well served with clear sailing after trouble last out in the Razorback, a race in which he was favored. HEDGE FUND was a sharp winner of his 4-year-old debut last out. He is a half-brother to Stanford, a Grade 2 winner of $1.3M.

NINTH RACE

BLUE PRIZE, a champion in her native Argentina, launches her season in this afternoon’s Azeri, She was a romping winner of the Grade 2 Falls City Handicap over some of these in her 2017 finale and the Beyer Speed Figure of 96 that she earned is the best last-race number in this field. BLUE PRIZE is a fresh horse who has shown improved speed in her races and she might get an ideal tracking trip off a few runners tucked to her inside. TIGER MOTH needs pace to fuel her run, and she could get what she needs were a few of these to make for some hot fractions up front. TIGER MOTH finished second to Blue Prize in the Falls City then flattered that one last out when just up in the Grade 3, $400K Houston Ladies Classic. TIGER MOTH is a half-sister to Last Gunfighter, a Grade 2 winner of $1.2 million. TERRA PROMESSA is a horsefor-course with a 5-for-9 record at Oaklawn. She has moved forward with each of her starts of the layoff, and could be sitting on a peak effort in what will be her third out since July. TERRA PROMESSA is a four-time Grade 3 winner who is closing in on millionaire status with earnings of $909K. ACTRESS is an up and coming member of the division, and in her first start against older rivals last out was second by a neck in the Houston Ladies Classic. This one’s dam won the Woodbine Oaks and earned $1.1M. FARRELL is a four-time Grade 2 winner who did not handle the wet track last out, per Catalano. More than capable. STREAMLINE won last year’s Azeri.

TENTH RACE

SOLOMINI appears to have tactical, statistical and historical dynamics working in his favor into the Rebel, the first start of the year for colt who was an Eclipse Award finalist after placing in three Grade 1 routes at 2. SOLOMINI is a fresh horse who has more natural speed than a number of these, which could give him a tactical advantage. From a statistical standpoint, SOLOMINI owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and exits a key race, the Los Al Futurity in which he finished first and was placed third. McKinzie came back to capture the Grade 3 Sham at SA, with a Beyer of 98; Instilled Regard returned to win the Grade 3 Lecomte at FG, with a Beyer of 92; and Runaway Ghost came back and accounted for the $106K Riley Allison at Sunland, with a Beyer of 84. The Rebel marks the first start since for SOLOMINI, and note Baffert wins at a 29 percent clip with layoff prospects. From a historical standpoint, Baffert has won six Rebels. SPORTING CHANCE was bumped on both sides in the stretch in the Southwest but recovered and finished well in what was his first start since a September win in the Grade 1 Hopeful. He has reason to move forward in his second race back. MAGNUM MOON is undefeated in two starts and like the Tampa-to-Oaklawn move from a surface standpoint. He could give Pletcher a second straight Rebel win behind Malagacy in 2017.