ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, ST. PATRICK FROST

FIRST RACE

ZONIC just about out of chances after finishing in the money in 9 of 11 starts without finding the winner’s circle, but his last two sprints over fast dirt were good enough to make him a strong contender here, and even his mile run over a fast track last April, which was contested over an inside, speed-favoring track, was a solid effort; one final chance in uninspiring field of maidens. PIRATE’S TREASURE faced some pretty good horses last year while going 0-5, and he may have simply found the right field on the way back; on the other hand, he is a likely short price off the layoff and his races as a 3yo weren’t exactly fast. GIVETHEMAN A CIGAR has had his chances while settling for second-best in each of his last four races; has the kind of early speed which may lead to a good trip in this race. QUEST FOR FIRE has a nice pedigree (his brother Absatootly is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter, and his dam was a promising horse early in her career) but is making a belated debut for a trainer who doesn’t excel with first-time starters.

SECOND RACE

SHE’SAKITTYKAT faced some tougher competition early on last year, and she ran pretty well while lugging in through the stretch in her only start at this level; back to NY for 4yo debut with a trainer change and blinkers on. AMANDA LANE had speed to contest the pace when dropped to this level over a sloppy track, and she was game in the stretch despite not being able to contain Tough Old Bird, who had previously had trouble winning races, at the end; good spot right back, assuming the wet track didn’t help her last time. CATCHMEWITHASMILE was close in a five-way photo for the win first time out, then caught a sloppy track and a class-dropping, front-running winner when no factor in her second start; trainer change and slight class drop for her third start.

THIRD RACE

FOREVER LIESL didn’t run her best race when turned back to sprint last time in a race that was wired by Cozzy Spring, who was winning her fourth straight on dirt, but her form prior to that was solid going longer, including a trio of stakesplacings in Maryland; has to be ready off the layoff. TOTAL CONTROL has been improving from start to start since returning from a layoff, and she was game while only second-best to a loose-on-thelead Christmas Sky last month; can land the right kind of trip from the rail with her tactical speed. SMILE BIG has earned a pair of 80+ Beyers over the course of her last five starts on dirt, though it is worth noting that she was with gold rails in both of those races; in her defence, she has other races that would make her a contender in a race like this as she drops in class for top connections.

FOURTH RACE

ST. PATRICK FROST was riding the crest of a strong rail when posting an easy win over maidens two starts back, but her form prior to that race was better than it looks while enduring some lessthan-ideal trips/rides, and she was caught up dueling a fast pace vs. a much better field before giving way last time in the mud; back into the right kind of race for this, and there isn’t much other pace in this field. SANDY STRIKES may not be able to run anymore, but there are races in his past that would make him a contender vs. these horses, and he has spent most of his career facing better horses; wet track didn’t have to help him last time, and his race two back was won by Special Story with an 87 Beyer. Unclear how much ability BEST SURPRISE actually has, but he faced better in his return from an extended layoff, and guess he can use the wet track excuse for that last one over this distance; has some speed from the inside. TEN TWENTY NINE 0-6 at this level since starting back from a layoff, and he rallied for a second for the

eighth time in his 20 career starts over a sloppy track most recently; not much pace in this race to set him up.

FIFTH RACE

COEXISTENCE debuting fro top connections in interesting maiden sprint which appears to hold some talent; sire has gotten off to a good start with his young runners and this filly appears to be training forwardly since arriving in NY. WARRIOR OF LIGHT has the kind of experience that can be very valuable in a race like this; only second-best after chasing the pace first-time out, and she was no match for a modest rival in Lezendary last time, though that rival did improve with blinkers on in that race. LADY SUEBEE ran a relatively fast race first time out when only second-best,m but she hasn’t backed that race up in a pair of subsequent starts; did catch a wet track two starts back, and horse that dueled her down last time returned to finish 2nd in the Busher with a 74 Beyer. QUIRL has the best pedigree in the race being a More Than Ready out of a dam (unraced) who is a sister to several talented runners, most notably the multiple graded stakes winner Leigh Court; trainer just 3 for his last 45 with first-time starters.

SIXTH RACE

CONQUEST TWISTER found the right field and got the right ride when prevailing as the favorite last time, but his form prior to that opportunistic win was solid and he is capable from off the pace, which projects to play well in this field as he makes his first start off the claim for a dangerous trainer. VALYRIAN out of restricted claiming conditions after winning two straight off the claim for Diodoro; steps up for new trainer who won with a rare new acquisition here last weekend, albeit in a race that turned into a battle of attrition. MAJOR LEAGUE a logical contender dropping in class for second start off the Rudy claim, and he is another who can take advantage of a contested pace scenario. FRATELLO DEL NORD is back to a better distance for this and he has been known to get brave on the lead, but he was bad last time, and there is other speed in this race for him to deal with.

SEVENTH RACE

MISS SIZZLE dropped down and posted an easy win over maiden claimers last time without having to get down to serious business, and while that race did not come back fast, she was returning from a long layoff in that spot and she is now moved up in class by the sharpest of trainers; second start of her career before hitting the sidelines a bit underrated as she ripped off a wicked pace in that race before tiring. CURIOUSNCURIOUSER everyone’s trip horse after getting trapped in behind horses and shuffled back in the stretch last time off the claim; steps up with solid overall form. HEXAMETER gained some ground for second-best behind front-running Christmas Ske last time, though she never looked like winning that race; turns back out of a pair of one-mile races, and while her top figures came sprinting last summer, both of those races were originally scheduled for turf. LEAH’S DREAM has been in top form lately while taking three straight vs. claimers; we’ll see if she can keep it going off the claim.

EIGHTH RACE

SUGARILLE os no star, but she is consistent and she did finish gamely to just miss last time after getting bumped at the start to wind up back off the pace; seems to be in a good spot here from a nice outside post. GROTON ST SCOUT improved to a big new top figure in her first start for this trainer off the layoff, then stepped up to this level to finish a decent 3rd last week; repeat of that figure two back makes her tough. THE CAKE IS A LIE stepping up off the claim, but doing so at the right time after winning three of her last four starts; has speed.

NINTH RACE

DUNE BUGGY crushed maidens in her first dirt start with a competitive figure and then bumped up to face better in her next start to no avail; back down for leading connections with enough speed to stay close. PASSPORTTOVICTORY back at the same level after being reclaimed by a very good trainer out of her most recent start; has back form on dirt to make herself tough here. OUR WHIM had no real excuse in a slow race off a short layoff last time, though that race was contested over a sloppy track; good effort two back while on the outside over a track that featured a strong rail.