ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, WHISKEY TRAIN

FIRST RACE

PLATINUM BLACK is out of a dam who won four races, including a pair of dirt routes, and sire Sky Mesa was of course a stakes-winning router; turf is a bit of a question but the barn has a recent winner with a horse making his debut on the green. MASCARPONE is clearly the one to beat after running 2nd, beaten only a length, under similar circumstances in his latest; clearly tough here if he can avoid a regression in his 2nd start off the layoff. KINGDOM KEPT prompted a quick pace and weakened only late in his latest, against better; ability to lead or rate a plus.

SECOND RACE

BOURBON HAPPENS was a beaten favorite in each of his last two starts but he ran well in defeat, missing by just a head two back and tiring late last time after making a mid-race run at the leaders; first start in a couple of months but he’s been working well toward this return. SUPER BEAU didn’t run his best race last time but he has solid back figures, and he was visually impressive in some of those tries; willing to forgive that last one if he’s a square price, as expected. REVOLT adds blinkers in his first start off the claim, both positive angles for the new barn; certainly on the short list of contenders.

THIRD RACE

AMERICAN ROYAL was sharp in victory against maiden claimers in that last one, and though she would need to post a much-improved Beyer here she certainly has upside in only her third career start; a quicker pace would go a long way in that regard. SETUBAL has speed, and could in fact be the one they have to catch; she was off the board last time but she was under pressure through fast fractions from the start, and an easier trip could certainly move her up. FLASHNDYNAMITE adds Lasix for this following a solid effort in her turf debut; early speed and inside post should lead to a favorable trip.

FOURTH RACE

CLIFDEN went down as the odds-on favorite in his latest but he was up against the race flow there, as “speeds” held a big edge, as evidenced by the inverted “S” in the DRF running line; should get an improved set up here, and given that he has license to make the last run. LIZ MORE BOY weakened in the late stages when last seen but he was pressed on the lead from the start there; returns after a short rest and he’s going to be tough if he’s able to shake loose on the front end. CANDY POWER did well to get the place at 80-1 last time, and in retrospect he did have excuses in his first two starts, including a pace excuse two back, and he may have bled in his bow, as he added Lasix in his 2nd start.

FIFTH RACE

CONCERTOS APPEAL could be the controlling speed here given aggressive handling in the early stages, as this sprint is light on pace and she does have some early zip; hoping she can shake loose in the opening stages. JENNA DAWN has had her chances, and she figures to be favored here, but she may have finally found the right group; game in defeat when last seen. DUKE’S WILD GIRL drops in price and fits well at this level based on her best figures; could be the main threat in the lane.

SIXTH RACE

ROSIE APPEAL exceled in defeat in her first start around two turns in that last one, an effort that stamps her as the one to beat today; doesn’t meet the deepest of fields, and she could be the main speed from her inside post. CALIFORNIA COTTON was no match for the winner in that last one but she was against the race flow, which strongly

favored the speeds; she’s had her chances at that elusive 2nd win but likely none softer than this.

CLEARLY LOVE didn’t run badly in her first start against winners, well enough to make her a late threat in this spot, as she faces similar. BELLA VINCENZA is clearly in very good form, and she also happens to land in a very good spot in terms of the pace scenario, as there appears to be a good amount of speed in this field and she’ll be looking to make the last run; should be well set up. ANIMAUXSELLE is another who stands to benefit from the expected race flow, as she’s another who does her best running from off the pace; latest was sub-par but the shorter distance likely worked against her. BOBBY’S BDAY GIRL could be the main speed, and she gets the rail; needs an alert break.

EIGHTH RACE

WHISKEY TRAIN is wide but he has a hint of speed, and that may be enough to put him on the lead in this one, which is very light on pace; he was off the board in all of his starts at the meet to date but he’s run deceptively well in defeat in at least two of those three races. PLEASE HUMOR ME has a weak overall win percentage, and he looms a relatively short price, but he has to be considered a treat given his recent figures and his tactical early zip. POSTERITY has little early speed, and that could leave him with too much to do, but he does loom the main threat in the lane; distance does play to his advantage, however.

NINTH RACE

LITTLE DIRTY GIRL is kin to two winners, including Maryjean, who posted 18 victories, including a score in her own career debut, and the dam was a three-time winner; barn’s gaudy stats with recent firsters make this filly a threat by default. JIMA’S GOLD is out of an unraced dam but she’s kin to six winners; sports a couple of decent works for this and she figures to be overlooked some in the betting. GEMODIXIE is kin to Dance Hall, who won seven races, although all of them were routes; dam won a pair of races, though, and both were sprints.

TENTH RACE

THE CHANCHI clearly looms tough here off that last running line, where he missed by a half-length after making the lead in mid-stretch, but he also ran well in defeat in his prior try, when he closed deceptively well for the show; just needs pace. MAYBEYESMAYBENO didn’t run badly in defeat in his lone try on the grass three back, and though the figure didn’t come up strong he has room to improve with that start under his belt; forward trip would help the cause. ARCH IT IS failed to threaten in that sprint after breaking slowly but he’s back on the turf, and this is the surface for which he’s bred, that sub-par debut try notwithstanding.

Main track: One mile, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 Feet. Turf course: Seven Furlongs

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 17% ■ Exacta wagering: 20.5% ■ Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, Super Hi 5 wagering: 18% ■ Pick 5: 15% ■ All other wagers: 25.9%