ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, CRAZY UNCLE RICK

FIRST RACE

First post, 11:30 a.m. TIZ MI HAINA can post a mild upset, first start since October while dropping into a claiming race for the first time. Although she is not “fast enough” based on speed figures, that will only help her odds. Trainer Marty Jones does well with comebackers, the best race last year by ‘HAINA was her only start on dirt, and her slow workouts are standard for this outfit. Looks like a live longshot in the opener. MINING DIAMONDS has the top figures; her only start at this level was a highly rated runner-up finish in which she finished more than seven clear of third at the wire. She adds blinkers while making her first start since September. The probable favorite, the only real knock is likely low odds. JUST BE HELD also returns to the class level at which she lost by a nose in December. She might be the speed of the field.

SECOND RACE

ROSIE MY ROSIE scored the 12th win of her career last month, winning by a neck in a $16k claiming race at this mile distance. So what is the knock? Only this: she drops to $8k claiming after winning at three claiming levels higher. Best horse, obvious favorite, likely winner from off the pace. HONOR MAKER made a big move from the back of the field, opened up by three lengths in the middle of the stretch, and then got collared. It was a sharp effort by HONOR MAKER, who was making her first start since she was claimed in January for $8k. She does not always run two alike, but she probably has more speed than the top choice. She will get first run. WHERE’S THE D stretches out from sprints as a longshot pacesetter candidate. JILL MADDEN has run races that put her in the hunt, but tough to overlook her 31-length defeat last out.

THIRD RACE

CRAZY UNCLE RICK drops to maiden-75 for his second start back from a layoff, while shortening from six and a half furlongs to five and a half. The speedster actually ran okay in his comeback vs. special-weight maidens. He dueled into the lane before fading. The horse he dueled with (El Asesino) returned Feb. 25 to win a maiden-50 by nearly three lengths. ‘RICK can be long gone, unless one of the first-time starters jumps up with something special. JIMMY THE BULL posted a bullet gate work Feb. 28 in a quick 47.40 seconds. The work suggests the colt has speed. This is the first crop sired by 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Fort Larned. His progeny are 2-for-17 first time out. MONGOLIAN GROOM debuts with a solid workout pattern, although maidens trained by Enebish Banbat tend to improve with experience rather than win first time out.

FOURTH RACE

Two turns is new for RISKY PROPOSITION, but his most recent start on the hill stamps him the one to beat in this starter allowance route. ‘PROPOSITION was claimed from a debut win by Mark Glatt; the gelding’s second start was a fourthplace finish in a highly rated allowance sprint on the hill. He is quick, and must ration his speed. If able, he can be long gone with a front-running or pace-pressing trip. GRAY ADMIRAL has something the top choice lacks. That is, experience around two turns. ‘ADMIRAL scored a convincing maiden75 win last out, and though he did not finish all that fast (24.87-second final quarter), it might not matter against this field. The lightly raced gelding could fire right back. ZIPPY GROOM seems like a late-running sprinter, although he did win a maiden-30 dirt route last fall. His runner-up finish in a turf sprint at this class level two starts back makes him a contender.

FIFTH RACE

DIZZY DIVA finished more than three lengths clear of third last out in a similar maiden-16 sprint. That runner-up finish was her second solid effort on the comeback trail; it sets her up as a likely winner against a soft bunch of maiden-claiming fillies and mares. YALLA added blinkers last time, showed improved speed, dueled to the middle of the stretch, then tired. This race came up short

on speed; the rail-drawn filly has one way to go. That is, straight to the lead and try to wire the field.

RADIO CHATTER ran poorly last out; her runnerup finish two starts back makes her a contender. SHINING ARMADA returns to a sprint after fading on the lead going two turns.

SIXTH RACE

SPECTATOR was among the elite 2yo fillies in Southern California last season; she makes her first start as a 3yo in this N2X allowance. Her work pattern is solid, she runs well fresh (debut winner), and can pick up where she left off last summer. She raced only three times last year; she has plenty of upside. SHE’S NO DRAMA returns to her preferred distance, which is a sprint, after fading in a two-turn Grade 2 that was her first start of the year. Allowance winner and stakes-placed last fall on synthetic at Golden Gate, she might be the speed of the field. Come and catch her. DIS SMART CAT drops in class after facing stakes sprinters her last two starts. A three-time winner on this racetrack, she will be running late. MS WAKAYA has enough speed to be forwardly placed, within striking distance of SHE’S NO DRAMA.

SEVENTH RACE

TINA’S EXCHANGE and ELWOOD J are the only two front-runners in this N1X sprint; perhaps they can make it a parade. TINA’S EXCHANGE returns from a seven-month layoff, runs well fresh and finished second both dirt sprints last year. ELWOOD J finished third last out in a $32k claiming N3L sprint. The pace of this sprint is likely to be modest; ELWOOD J will be forwardly placed. TONY BLACKJACK, a stretch-running stablemate of the top choice, is the best late threat. His last three dirt sprints produced two wins and a second.

EIGHTH RACE

With a comeback prep race under her belt and softer pace scenario likely, SASSY LITTLE LILA can spring a mild upset in this G2 turf route. Her fourth-place comeback was not bad. Unraced in more than three months, she found herself chasing a runaway pacesetter, made a run at that one in the lane, but was unable to sustain her rally. She finished fourth by a length and a half. Now she stretches from one mile, to a mile and one-eighth, and meets a field with less speed. The G1-placed mare has run well at this distance (runner-up by a nose American Oaks late 2016), and can win with a front-running or pace-pressing trip. MADAM DANCEALOT finished fifth as the favorite in the same race the top choice exits. Although ‘MADAM did not have a visible excuse in that mile race, her best races have been at this mile and one-eighth distance or farther. She might be worth trying again at this longer distance, at a higher price.

FAULT, who entered the G1 Santa Margarita on dirt Saturday, would be right at home if she stayed on turf. She won the race the top pair exit, rallying from behind with a rail-skimming trip.

NINTH RACE

This maiden-50 sprint for California-breds looks like a good spot to take a shot with a first-time starter. BOOM BOOM BANGO debuts with a steady work pattern for a stable that occasionally pops at a price with first-timers. Trainer Mike Puype won March 9 with 6.40-1 firster Lolly Express; he won Dec. 1 with 9.30-1 firster Gutsy Streak. Top rider Drayden Van Dyke is aboard BOOM BOOM BANGO, who looks “live” first time out. CHAMPAGNE HONEY is the proven commodity; she finished second last out, while nearly four lengths clear of third in a similar state-bred maiden-claiming sprint. First-time starters SWEET MARIA and PAPRIKA debut in a relatively easy race, as does DONUT GIRL, Puype-trained nd stablemate of the top choice. That is a wrap for this handicapper. Spring vacation beckons; will return in a week and a half.