McKinzie, Bolt d’Oro show the right Beyer stuff

The second-to-last round of Kentucky Derby preps had dazzling performances, a controversial disqualification and a confusing situation that we at Beyer Central sometimes encounter.

By impression, I would rank the San Felipe (101), Rebel (97), Gotham (95), and Tampa Bay Derby (94) in the exact order of the Beyer Speed Figures earned. And I would put Justify’s 101 in an optional claimer in a separate, somewhat mysterious category.

With the understanding that Bolt d’Oro had not raced in four months and had some training setbacks, I still thought DQ’d McKinzie ran the better race in the San Felipe.

McKinzie attended a decent pace, got challenged by a very serious opponent, and refused to let that horse by. On the far turn, I thought Bolt d’Oro was going to win by five lengths. Regardless of who bumped who, I don’t think Bolt d’Oro was getting by McKinzie.

McKinzie showed major potential with a 99 Beyer right out of the box. He has followed that with a 92, 98, 101 series in three stakes, simply screaming major Derby contender with figures and a running style that should keep him out of trouble.

Bolt d’Oro worked up to his big Beyer more gradually, getting 77 and 88 Beyers last summer. The FrontRunner Stakes was the breakthrough. Remember it would have been a 113 if we had gone strictly by the variant that day. But Andrew Beyer, along with his team, made the decision to downgrade it to 103 because it seemed so unlikely Bolt d’Oro and the horses behind him all could have improved so dramatically.

Bolt d’Oro’s very wide-trip 91 when third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 101 in the San Felipe suggest that the 103 more accurately portrayed his FrontRunner performance. That said, I think this colt may have the biggest upside of the known quantities.

I liked everything about unbeaten Magnum Moon’s Rebel win – the colt’s speed to get position and move to get away from a decent field that included the consistent Solomini. Magnum Moon began his career Jan. 13 with a 95 and then followed with an 88 and a career top in his first stakes.

The one-mile Gotham presented a Beyer dilemma for Mark Hopkins, who makes the New York figures. There were one-mile stakes in races 7, 8, and 10 – the Stymie, Heavenly Prize, and Gotham. The times were 1:38.03, 1:38.13, and 1:38.24. The two-tenths of a second difference from the fastest race to the slowest race equates to 2 Beyer points.

“People who make speed figures mechanically would automatically give these races all the same figure,” Beyer said. “We’re a little more skeptical than that. When we make our figures, we want to believe that they make sense. In this case, my partner Mark Hopkins and I couldn’t quite believe these times.

“In the seventh race, Harlan Punch wins by seven over a field of horses that regularly run in the mid 90s. This absolutely had to be a big race. It couldn’t have been lower than 105.”

The Stymie was assigned a 105 Beyer.

“You look at the other two races, [Heavenly Prize winner] Divine Miss Grey had never run a figure higher than 97. The second horse had been running against New Yorkbreds. Could these fillies have run close to 105? Conceivable, but I doubt it.”

The Heavenly Prize got a 96 Beyer.

“And then you come to the Gotham, where Enticed wins,” Beyer said. “His lifetime best was an 84. He wins by 2 3/4 lengths over Old Time Revival, who had just been beaten in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel. Could this race have been in the vicinity of 105? Could Enticed be the best 3-year-old in America? Well, I would say very likely not.

“With the evidence of these three races, we just had to conclude the track sped up after the Harlan Punch race. When you have races at the same distance close together on the card, people will look at them and, if the figures don’t match up, everybody gets bent of shape: How could you do this? It seems so arbitrary. If Enticed comes back and wins the Kentucky Derby by five, we will be the first to publicly hang our heads and say we were wrong, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

The Gotham was assigned a 95 Beyer.

Quip got a 74, 77, 68 series as a 2-year-old, so there was nothing to suggest he was about to blow up to a 94 in the Tampa Bay Derby. But he did at 19-1. Could have been a one-off, but even if not, the colt is still going to have to run faster to be a serious Derby contender.

As for Justify, everybody has seen both his races, probably multiple times because they were so powerful. The 104 in his debut followed by the 101 tells a story for sure. The next chapter in his only Derby prep is going to tell “the” story. Me? I can’t wait and not just because I have Justify at 40-1 in the future book.