Adding blinkers, Noble Indy to break running in La. Derby

Typically, when I see a horse adding blinkers, I see opportunity elsewhere, viewing the horse as not nearly as likely to improve from the equipment change as the public anticipates in the wagering. And based on this general belief, I would normally be against a horse such as Noble Indy, a 7-2 shot in the Louisiana Derby who is adding blinkers for the first time.

Yet I like most everything else about him, causing me to forgo my usual thinking and select him to win while hoping he offers enough value to warrant a wager – say at 3-1 or so. He is talented, in skilled hands with trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez, and well drawn in post 2 on a track that favors inside post positions. And, most importantly, he comes off a prep race that should have him ready for a significant forward move.

That prep, the Feb. 17 Risen Star at Fair Grounds, not only gave this Floridabased colt a race over the track but also provided him with a valuable learning experience. For the first time in his threerace career, he was asked to rate behind horses, and while he raced in relatively tight quarters for much of the race, he did well to finish third in an even performance, two lengths behind Bravazo and Snapper Sinclair.

Noble Indy got far more seasoning from that race than in his first two races combined – victories in which he either raced on the lead or pressed the pace in the clear at Gulfstream Park.

In watching him subsequently work on video on Xbtv.com, I am further encouraged by how he is approaching the Louisiana Derby. He appears to be in top form. I am expecting him to break running and take the race to his rivals, rather than the other way around.

As for his most notable competition, they merit respect but don’t appear to have his upside. Bravazo has been a determined winner in both his starts this year, but I don’t entirely trust him after a fairly undistinguished 2-year-old campaign in which he never ran faster than a 73 Beyer Speed Figure. Snapper Sinclair seems questionable at the 1 1/8-mile distance, and My Boy Jack is a regression candidate after rallying up a favorable rail over a wet track in taking the Feb. 19 Southwest at Oaklawn.

Leofric in New Orleans Handicap

Also racing over a wet track Feb. 19 at Oaklawn was Leofric in the Grade 3 Razorback, though he didn’t ride the rail the way My Boy Jack did. Instead, he raced in the 2 and 3 paths, was overpowered late by the rail-skimming Hawaakom, and finished second.

Now entered in the New Orleans Handicap on the Louisiana Derby card, he looks poised for a performance at least as good, if not better. Though this race drew a couple of graded stakes winners in The Player and Good Samaritan, the race doesn’t have the top-to-bottom depth of the Razorback, which had a cast of 11.

He isn’t as fast as The Player and Good Samaritan on last-race Beyers, but those rivals aren’t assured of running back to those figures. The Player won the Fayette Stakes in the slop at Keeneland at this distance of 1 1/8 miles but has acted more like a miler or short-distance router in the majority of his fast-track races, and Good Samaritan is making his first start of the year and perhaps is a race away from his best.

As the third choice on the morning line, Leofric seems like the best option when taking into account betting value.

Last Bad Habit can win maiden

Beyond the stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds, one of the more attractive wagering races is the fourth, where 8-1 shot Last Bad Habit looks ready to jump up in his second start when facing straight maidens.

Backed to 5-1 odds when unveiled against a quality cast Feb. 9, he was never a factor and ran fifth of eight, beaten more than 10 lengths. But in a very fast race for the level, he still earned a 67 Beyer, a number that doesn’t put him too far out of reach of the morning-line favorites if he can build upon that.

He is bred to route, should benefit from his one outing, and lands post 1, which is a favorable starting position at Fair Grounds in main-track routes. And I particularly like inside posts going this distance of a mile and 70 yards given a short run to the first of two turns.