Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
Prices should be right on stakes-rich undercard
Dirt races at 1 1/16 miles are the new 1 1/8-mile races at Fair Grounds, as the standard route race gets shorter and shorter.
So far this meet, there has been a grand total of one dirt race contested over 1 1/8 miles, which is not exactly a marathon. Only 20 races have been run at 1 1/16 miles, which used to be a standard route, while there have been 75 Fair Grounds races at one mile and 70 yards and a whopping 87 at one mile, an awkward configuration that requires a horse to move hard on the turn, and which ends at the sixteenth pole.
All this makes the Crescent City Derby and the Crescent City Oaks, two $75,000 stakes early on Saturday’s Louisiana Derby card, almost like stayers’ races. Who among these Louisiana-bred sophomores is cut out to handle a rugged 1 1/16-mile trip? It’s unclear who the Crescent City Derby favorites are.
Gladyousawme is the 3-1 morning-line choice, which seems about right with champion jockey Javier Castellano picking up the mount on a horse who has won 4 of 5 starts and more than $200,000 for leading Fair Grounds trainer Brad Cox. But Gladyousawme’s three stakes wins came at distances between seven furlongs and one mile at Delta Downs, where the homestretch is only about one furlong, and he is by the turf sprinter Due Date and out of a mare who only sprinted during her racing career.
Similar concerns hold with Gracida, the Doug O’Neilltrained ridgling who finished fourth behind Gladyousawme last out in the one-mile Premier Night Prince at Delta. Gracida was drawn poorly in post 10 that night, but his lone win came over five furlongs, and he is likely to show speed in a race packed with early pace.
Handicappers should keep an open mind and try to identify horses who might be helped rather than hurt by the longer distance and homestretch. Double Star, 15-1 on the line, could be such an animal, as could Greeley Gone West, but he must cope with post 13.
Testing One Two will be favored in the Crescent City Oaks if she starts in that race, the logical choice, rather than the Fair Grounds Oaks, in which she was cross-entered. But she, too, could be worth opposing.
Testing One Two dominated a maiden race and two Delta stakes this winter, but she washed out before the Rachel Alexandra Stakes on Feb. 17 and never looked especially comfortable, fading to fifth, albeit against far stronger competition than she’d meet in the Crescent City Oaks. Testing One Two’s fundamental ability rates higher than anyone else in the race, but it remains to be seen if she can get back to her Delta form at a short price.
The rail-drawn Champagne Diva could make the early lead while trying two turns for the first time, and her dam topped out with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure racing over a route of ground. Saints’ Girl won a onemile maiden race by more than 13 lengths, turned back to a sprint to face winners for the first time, won that by more than four, and also rates a chance Saturday.
Can ‘Mom’ strike again?
Mom’s On Strike brings a four-race winning streak into the $50,000 New Orleans Ladies Stakes, a turf race over about 1 1/16 miles for fillies and mares. That’s obviously a good thing from the perspective of her connections, but horseplayers should consider how it might affect the sure favorite Saturday.
Mom’s On Strike has won $75,000 stakes over the local course in her last two starts, but it is not easy for any horse to hold top form for five months, which is what’s being asked of Mom’s On Strike now. Trainer Joe Sharp pointed out as well that Mom’s On Strike hasn’t been away from the racetrack for the better part of a year, and he already has said the mare is due a break after Saturday. Of course Mom’s On Strike can win, but at odds of something like 8-5, she offers little value.
Desert Duchess and Five Hearts look like the most appealing alternatives. Desert Duchess is unlikely to go off nearly as high as her 8-1 morning line, not with Jose Ortiz riding a Mike Maker-trained filly whose last start came at the Grade 1 level. Desert Duchess finished ninth, beaten 13 lengths, in that race, the 1 1/4mile American Oaks, but a drop in class and a cutback in distance could get her back to her previous form, which gives Desert Duchess a chance.
Five Hearts finished in a dead heat for third behind Mom’s On Strike on Feb. 17 but has gotten in three published workouts since then and could improve again in her second start since being claimed by trainer Mike Stidham.
◗ Trust Factor cuts back from routes to a sprint but still looks like the most likely winner of the $60,000 Costa Rising, a Louisiana-bred turf race that kicks off the Saturday stakes action with a massive, contentious field.