ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, BALLARD HIGH

FIRST RACE

MINERALOGY at his best when allowed to go roll early, which was the case two back when toying with two-life claimers in the slop; has some other speed to deal with here, but like him turning back to sprint after facing a tougher bunch over a mile last time. Have to tread lightly with CASIGORDO who was eased and vanned off when last seen at the end of February, but his good race fits and he can pull a trip similar to the one he got two back when finishing gamely to close down a fast pace at a price. RANSOM NOTE contested that pace in front of CASIGORDO two back before just getting nailed on the wire and he returned to outrun the other speed to the lead last time, before holding on over a hanging Adirondack Dream; back in form for a top trainer. HARD HITTER was compromised while racing three-wide against a strong rail in his first start off the Rudy claim; needs his best vs. this field.

SECOND RACE

VIRTUAL MACHINE made a bit of a splash when posting back to back blowout wins in his first two NY starts last year off a layoff, and he went on to run another good race in the Grade 3 Westchester before trying the Met Mile; won that first one back off a similar layoff for this trainer, who is three for his last four with dirt routers off of 180+day layoffs ($4.02 ROI). GIFT BOX clearly the one to beat as he tries again on the back of paired up 99 Beyers, but he has now lost six straight as the favorite, and excuses aren’t easy to come by; going to find the right field one of these days. FOX RULES caught a pair of wet tracks on the way back recently and failed to run his race either time; dangerous speed when he’s right.

THIRD RACE

BALLARD HIGH brought $220k last year after breezing in 10-flat but didn’t take much money for his debut and didn’t make an impact in that race after making a nice appearance pre-race and then racing on some late after getting off to a very poor start; expect improvement for trainer who has few peers with second-time starting maid- ens. EVERYBODY LOVES ME got bet hard in her first two starts last summer at Saratoga, where she showed plenty of early speed but no finishing power at all in pair of disappointing efforts; starts back vs. colts looking to improve. THROW THE FADE has had speed in all three starts so far, but he too has been unable to finish at the end while settling for second-best in his last two starts; may have trouble outrunning EVERYBODY LOVES ME to the lead this time. METAPHORICAL had good speed over a tough distance first time out, but he was no match for an impressive debut winner in that spot and gave way in the stretch; gelded for his second start, and he’ll have Lasix this time.

FOURTH RACE

SPLIT TIME hasn’t earned a figure yet, but she’s run well all three times, including pair of impressive wins over this distance in her last two starts; had no issue with off tracks in her two wins, but may benefit from getting a fast track to work with this time. BREEZY GAL earned this field’s top figure when drowning maidens over this trip in her second start; tough if backing that race up in this spot, though she is unlikely to be controlling the pace this time. UNDER SUSPICION likely to be showing the way early as she stretches out from her rail draw; game win in her first start back from a layoff last month, though that was a day when speed was in favor.

FIFTH RACE

MR. HOT ROCKS back down in class after getting in too tough off the claim when last seen vs. the likes of Empire Line; good effort for second-best in lone start for a tag two starts back, and he has been

gelded in his time off. CANTAKEITANYMORE has also been gelded since his most recent start, which came over a mile vs. better horses than this; got a look at that race two back after a good up-close trip, but didn’t have enough in the stretch. ANYTHING PAZIBLE caught a sloppy track on the class drop last month and he never got involved in that race after getting outrun early; better than that, and he may really appreciate getting back over fast ground.

SIXTH RACE

BANKER’S ISLAND chased wide over a muddy track and tired late in a race that came back fast (79 Beyer for the winner) last time, and he ran much better than it looks two back after losing several lengths at the start and then making a wide run over an inside, speed-favoring track; has to get the mile, and he has been listed as a vet scratch since his last run, but he is likely to be a price, and he may be better than he looks on paper. THIS CAT CAN FLY could only chase the 1-2 finishers when dropped in class last time, but he did that gamely before settling for a distant 3rd (the winner of that race has since come back to defeat better horses with a 76 Beyer); new gelding is reunited with the meet’s leading rider for this. SCOTTISH DEVIL tried gamely to no avail when dropped to this level two starts back, and he was up against it a bit last time while forced to chase forward after getting away at the back of that field, before tiring in the stretch; could give him another chance at a price over a fast track. ALEX’S LEMON TWIST stretches out and moves to a more comfortable post for his second start after chasing all the way to no avail first time out for Pletcher; bred to handle the added distance.

SEVENTH RACE

WRONG BEN impressed even with the easy front-running trip to win his career debut, but he never reapproached that kind of effort in subsequent starts vs. better horses; drops for the first time with speed after dueling between horses over a track that featured a strong rail last time. LIGHTNING BUZZ has already had his chances at this level, and he continues to come up short while picking up checks; was against the track two back two back chasing wide on a strong rail day, and he was a bit late to switch clear last time while only second-best. I WANT MO earned new top figure when dropped off the layoff in his first start for a dangerous trainer, but he was also riding the crest of a strong rail that day while only narrowly prevailing; drops back down after getting left behind by a better group last time.

EIGHTH RACE

GO BIG OR GO HOME has really improved since switching to dirt this year, and it is not unreasonable to suggest that he was best in all three of those starts while winning only one (just missed while always away from a strong rail on January 20th, and he finished up well last time after getting bumped back at the start and then having to navigate some traffic into the stretch); has to get the mile. CALIFORNIA SWING may find this kind of competition too tough, but he was impressive when dominating three-life claimers two starts back, which also happens to be his lone recent start over fast dirt; second off the claim for Maker after contesting a legit pace last time in a race that went to closers. SHADOW RIDER an infrequent winner, but he is consistent and fits the expected pace scenario of this race well with his late-running style. MR. DOUGIE FRESH was contesting that legitimate pace with CALIFORNIA SWING two back before weakening late, and he caught another wet track in another race that went to closers last time; tries again.

NINTH RACE

ALTESINO ran some solid races while not finding much luck in the running early on, then caught a wet track in his return from a layoff last month, where he made a game wide run to contention around the turn after a slow start from the rail, before flattening a bit late; was entered for a for the first time on Friday’s card, but could give him one more chance if he starts here. THE CARETAKER appears to have refound himself in his last two starts after going badly off form in the second half of 2017, as he has finished up gamely both times, including that race two back where he was forced to come wide over an inside track; switch to leading rider doesn’t hurt. WICKED MACHO earned a solid figure while defeating open company in his career debut, and he was then involved in a couple of fast paces in his next two starts (one of those routing in stakes company), before switching over to turf; has other speed to deal with in this spot, assuming the field stays intact, but like him coming back to dirt for this first start as a 4yo.

TENTH RACE

THREE GOALS got in too tough on the rise last time, but he looks tough turning back in this spot, assuming he can return to an effort similar to the one that produced a narrow defeat two back with a 67 Beyer. GIANT BOO BOO the first foal from his dam, who was five-time sprint winner in her career; working right along for trainer who has been having a solid meet here from limited starters. FROST Z dropping for his second start after