ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, BIG SILVER HOSS

FIRST RACE

TETHER TO REALITY failed to threaten in his return from the layoff but he didn’t get all that much help from the speeds, as he tried to rally from off the pace; that should change here, and he’s a threat to make the last run given a quicker tempo up front. SO LONG CHUCK has speed and the rail, and though he’s been idle since the summer he has to be considered a threat based on his most recent Beyer; barn’s record with new faces adds to the appeal. MYDADFLOYD has tactical speed and could find himself well spotted just off the speeds.

SECOND RACE

JUST MY GAME makes her first start off the claim for a barn winning at 50% with same, making her a threat by default; may get first run at expected speed ANGEL HAZE, who tends to stop even with loose leads, and she could inherit the advantage off the turn. CHARMING VERSE comes out of the same sprint as the top pick, and she may benefit from this stretch-out to two turns; note the barn’s record with horses stretching out in distance. CUNNINGHAM CREEK has been turfing but she does own a win on the main track; Yvon Belsoeur has solid stats in several pertinent trainer categories.

THIRD RACE

FREEDONIA adds blinkers and could be the main speed in this short field, and that could be the edge he needs as he tries to stave off NAVY ARMED GUARD in the lane; he was behind that rival three back but he rated off the pace there, and he could shake loose today. The latter is certainly the one to fear in the lane; he threw a clunker in his latest but his back figures give him more than enough credibility, especially if the top pick is caught up in an early duel. YEEHAW has posted his best figures on the turf but he figures to benefit from a forward trip in this one, his third start off the layoff.

FOURTH RACE

SWEETLY MAID was very game in defeat in that turf debut last time out, under pressure on the front end from the start and yielding only grudgingly in the late stages; could well get clear in the opening stages today, and that scenario would make her tough to reel in. QUEEN OF SWAG was off the board in her own turf bow but she was moving well enough in the late stages; may benefit from the experience. LOOKING GOOD CAROL has had her chances on the green but this is not an aboveaverage field and she does have steady figures.

FIFTH RACE

PAPA JOEL failed to threaten in his return from the break but he had a good amount of trouble there, and he was also against the race flow, which favored speeds; given a clean trip and an honest pace up front he figures to move way up off that running line. ASK THE HEIR is back on the main track and he could be the main threat to the top pick; cut back from routes could mean he’s going to have to pass most of these, as he wasn’t showing much speed in this longer races. GASPARILLA TROVE has the rail and some speed, and he fits well here based on his best figures; does like to run 2nd, though, and he could be a relatively light price.

SIXTH RACE

THATS WHAT WE DO caught the eye with a decent late run in his debut, and the work she turned in in the interim certainly suggests she retains her form; expecting an improved effort from her in her 2nd career start, especially if she gets even a slightly better race flow. MAID FOR MISCHIEF adds blinkers for a barn which is winning at a good rate with same; first start for a tag, and though she was off the board in her first start on the green

she was against the pace scenario, which favored speeds. FULL TILT TREASURE will need some help getting into the race, as she’s on the Also Eligible list, but if she does get to run she has to be considered a threat on the strength of that last line, and that solid recent work.

SEVENTH RACE

BIG SILVER HOSS turns back in distance and exits a paceless route but he does have more speed than he’s shown this season, and he may use it today given the apparent lack of speed in this sprint; he had enough trouble to call it a legitimate excuse four back and he was moving well through the wire three back after inexplicably racing far back off the early pace. DOODLE HOPPER makes his first start off the claim for a barn which does well with new faces, and he always seems to run well over this track; looms the main threat late. OVERCAME just missed in a solid effort against lesser, when on the lead from the start; also has a proven rating gear.

EIGHTH RACE

ANNIE O’SCHILLER has fairly steady Beyers and she makes her first start since October for a barn which does well with horses returning from breaks; should get enough pace help to set her up for a late run. STAR GALA puts blinkers on again and returns to the turf, which seems to be her preferred surface; tactical speed should ensure she works out a favorable trip. TEN PENNY PRINCESS had little chance to catch up with SILLY FACTOR last time when that rival was loose on the lead but a contested pace would move her up today as she returns to the green.

NINTH RACE

OH KANDRITA was a beaten favorite in each of her last two starts but she didn’t run badly, and she merits one more chance today against this modest field; she does like to run 2nd, and the she looms a short price, but it just seems she will be ideally positioned from her inside post, and her figures give her an edge on the others. CATALODGE is the one to catch after she dominated on the front end to graduate in her latest, on the heels of a race where she stopped on a loose lead; that was a better effort than it may seem, however, as an abundance of pace in the race set things up nicely for the closers (note inverted “C” in DRF pp’s). GEMSTONE LINDA could not last after setting the pace on a loose lead but she should appreciate today’s slight cutback in distance.

TENTH RACE

FAST LANE HELAINE is easily forgiven for that last one, as it’s now clear that she’s at her best on the weeds, and she should be moving well through the lane if she gets faster splits than she did in both of her first two starts over this course. WROTE TO A DIVA is the one to beat after running 2nd under similar circumstances in her latest; retains Gallardo, which hurts the price but adds to her appeal. TAMARIU makes her first start off the claim after a sub-par effort in her 2nd career start but she did press a quick opening quarter there.

KENNY PECK