ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, QUICK FINISH

FIRST RACE

BOURBON SOUL surely needed his Jan. 25 outing here, his first start in 17 months. The gelding can not only benefit from that run but from today’s slight drop in price. Note he was competitive vs. tougher prior to the layoff, and there are some nice works since that Jan. 25 start as well. EXCESSIVE KID left himself with too much to do going longer vs. tougher here Feb. 17. The drop helps and he’s reunited with Frey who was aboard for two strong efforts Nov. 11 and Jan. 15. CROWN THE KITTEN continues his solid form. That said, you have to go back a ways to find his last win but at least his recent work show him a solid fit at this level at this trip.

SECOND RACE

ONCE ON WHISKEY was a bit slow into stride in his debut here Feb. 3 but ran on nicely for 2nd behind a runaway winner. He can surely benefit from that outing and while Baffert is superb first time out he might be even better second time out. FACTS MATTER came back after 6 months to be a good 2nd here Feb. 25, finishing 9 lengths clear of 3rd finisher and today’s foe UPO. He figures in the thick of it from the start. UPO pressed the pace before finishing a well-beaten 3rd (12 lengths) in his debut here Feb. 25. He finished quite a ways behind runner-up and today’s foe FACTS MATTER (9 lengths) but can surely benefit from that debut. There’s a bullet work since and both sibs are winners. HONOR GUARD didn’t do much first time out but you can always be forgiving about a first run. He’s worked well since and Baffert is strong second time out. The colt’s 2 sibs are Gloryzapper (4 wins, $225K, G3 SW, SP) and Banree (2 wins, $164K, twice G3 SP).

THIRD RACE

FAIR REGIS comes here hot to the touch. The 4yo filly has rattled off 3 straight easy wins, the last coming here Feb. 8 in smashing fashion. While trainer Falcone Jr. risked her for a tag all times he takes no such risk of losing her via a claim here. POWDER dueled from the start before finishing a solid 3rd in a race like this here Feb. 24. That was her first start in 3 1/2 months so she can improve. LATE ‘N LEFT, 2nd ahead of POWDER in that Feb. 24 race, fits well here. She has the versatility to give her rider options.

FOURTH RACE

FLY FIRST CLASS showed ample speed in his first 2 starts so he figures in the thick of it from the start. It’s first time turf today, should this stay on, but he’s bred to handle the footing. And if it comes off he might even enjoy that more. BOB’S BAD BOY moved to turf for the first time here Feb. 8 and perked up nicely, dueling and finishing 3rd down the hill for $50K. He’s worked well since and it’s encouraging that while Harrington risked him for a tag in his last few he takes no such risk of losing him via a claim here. BRICKHOUSE returns from a lengthy layoff with plenty of solid works. He showed some ability on turf here 10 months ago and is bred for this as daddy was a turf SW, is a smart turf sire and this 4yo is kin to Velvety Smooth (5 wins, 4 on turf, $184K) and At Ease (2 wins, both on turf, $98K).HIT THE SEAM returns from a layoff with some smart works. He showed speed last summer/fall. It’s first time on grass but he’s bred for it (kin to 4 grass winners).

FIFTH RACE

PARADISE WOODS is certainly among the distaff elite and while she missed some time this winter due to a slight injury, this was the stated target after that setback and she’s worked splendidly for this. The fact she was only narrowly beaten by champ Unique Bella in the G1 La Brea at this same distance Dec. 26 tells you all you need. SKYE DIAMONDS was freshened after a decent 4th in the G1 BC F&M Sprint here and came back to be a good 3rd to SELCOURT in the G3 Las Flores

here Feb. 18. If anything she may prefer today’s extra furlong. SELCOURT was smashing winning the Kalookan Queen in a romp here Jan. 14 and then game winning the G3 Las Flores here Feb. 18. Her speed figures to have her on the pace from the start, though ‘WOODS has ample tactical speed so this filly figures to get pressed from the start. She also seems a bit more of a question mark at this distance than the top two.

SIXTH RACE

LUCKY LULA stalked the pace and ran on decently for 2nd for $40K here Feb. 1, her first start in 3 months. She then stepped up to the $50K level but didn’t show the same verve, finishing 5th. She’s down in price and reunited with Franco who was up for that good Feb. 1 outing. TENGS RHYTHM returns after nearly 9 months off with the most significant drop in the game. She showed some ability in her only start here last spring and has worked well for her return. CREATIVE SPARK was gone almost 6 months but when she came back here at this level Feb. 24 she showed good speed to duel before finishing 4th. She can benefit from that outing and 2 bullet works since bode well.

SEVENTH RACE

QUICK FINISH apparently has figured things out. After a decent 2nd at DMR Nov. 23 he was freshened, came back here Jan. 11 to blast maidens, then stepped up to this level facing winners for the first time and was a good 2nd Feb. 10. His speed figures to have him in the thick of it from the start and there are 4 nice works since that aforementioned good Feb. 10 run. BAD BOY LEROY looked super blasting maidens by 7 lengths here Feb. 23. It’s first time vs. winners so it’s a hefty class hike today, but he’s obviously heading the right way. CARAY stalked the pace before fading to 8th in a race like this here Feb. 10, well behind today’s foe QUICK FINISH in 2nd (9 lengths). However, his prior work shows he’s capable of better.

EIGHTH RACE

VENICE showed talent at DMR Nov. 10 but then came some time off and 2 dull races here this meet. However, she dropped in price, moved back to sprinting and moved to Maragh here March 3 and bounced back with a sharp 2nd, well clear of the others (6 1/2 lengths). It looks as though she’s back on track and it’s encouraging Mulhall moves her back up in price and that Maragh stays. DEE WAY TO GO pressed the issue and stayed on for 2nd to a runaway winner for this price here March 11, finishing far clear of the others (7 lengths). She has speed and Roman stays with her. RIDE LADY

RIDE showed speed in her first 2 outings and while she gave way in each remember both came vs. straight maidens. She’s been freshened and gets that all-important drop.

NINTH RACE

HAYABUSA ONE fell a nose shy of catching ITSINTHEPOST when 2nd to that rival in the G2 San Marcos here Feb. 3. The 5yo certainly appears on top of his game after nearly 11 months off and today’s added ground might help him overcome that narrow gap between he and ITSINTHEPOST. ITSINTHEPOST is, of course, the one to beat as he’s been the top distance turf horse on the West Coast. He won this last year and if anything looks like a better horse now than he was then. Still, just a nose between he and ‘ONE in the San Marcos shows he has no margin for error. RYE moved back to turf here Jan. 27 and got back on track with a smart victory. He’s never defeated runners the caliber of the top duo but he likes it here and may be up to the task.

TENTH RACE

VELVET JONES is sitting on a win. The 4yo filly has been knocking on the door for a year now and two recent 2nds at this game and level stamp her a proven commodity. ANITA G. returns after a lengthy layoff after dueling and finishing 3rd for $14K N2L at DMR last summer. She drops a peg for Miyadi who has strong numbers off a long layoff like this. RECKLESS CHARM stalked the pace before tiring to 5th as the 5-2 favorite at this level here March 11. It’s nice to see no further drop and Roman sees fit to take the call. Her best work has come on this track.