ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, MISS TIZZY FIT

FIRST RACE

TANAGER is feeling so good that not even a turf race could slow her down. Of course connections find a spot where this mare can’t be claimed. Race flow is a big plus as is ground saving post. MISERABLE BLUE can pass runners and goes second time for new barn. We thought that race two back was better than it looks. Did she move too early last out? VISTA CREEK is speed with more speed and is stuck outside. Dirt Beyers from 2 and 3 back make her a big player nonetheless. Why wasn’t recent turf try better? She was odds on and is bred to like grass. Weird. The 3 and 5 have speed.

SECOND RACE

FIGHT TO GLORY is the absolute one to beat. She has speed, can fire fresh, goes for the top barn, and is working well. Let’s move on then. BOLD AT NIGHT might get a good trip if the 3, 4, and 5 push each other early. This mare used to be a speed horse but sat off the pace and won in her most recent. We like it when horses do something different and it works. PONTIFICATOR has the best upside. Drawing between speed runners is a worry. You can’t fault her current form though. A nice easy four furlong work on the 18th hints that barn has this filly just where they want her.

THIRD RACE

BELLA’S BACK is better on the turf something she gets back to today. Her early speed is a plus in this race. We like that she has worked twice since her most recent. Catch her to cash. CONQUEST ARTURA tried the boys last out and only beat one home. She almost caught a lone F two back. We think she offers some value in this spot and don’t forget that these turf horses often take turns beating each other. OCEAN DREAM comes in fresh with plenty of works in tow. She is more than capable of a Beyer in the mid 60’s on this sod. Win rider returns in Mawing. EMMA’S DILEMMA is by a 0 for 18 debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the green and this is her first grass foal. ASTARTOBE is by a 3% debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the green and this is her first foal to try the weeds.

FOURTH RACE

HERKIMER STORM did beat a few home previously in a turf route even though grass breeding isn’t much. We like how this gelding jumped in class two back and almost won. Connections find a good spot. THE RANCH ran evenly in his debut and has every right to improve second time racing. He didn’t get the best of trips either. Notice that he got some play in said debut. TOP ROCKET has some decent figs and will be a good price. Maybe he will like an elongated sprint. BIG DUDE is by a 4% debut sire. His dam went 51-10-8-4 for 95K and this is her first foal.

FIFTH RACE

LUCKY B. N. has a little back class as he did face better at Woodbine. He came here and broke his maiden in his second local start as the chalk. Then he tried an elongated sprint two back that was also first time winners. He ran evenly so that wasn’t too bad a try. They he tried two turns on the dirt for the first time last out and again ran OK (dirt fast Beyer top). We like this attack post for this distance. Jock switch to Stevens might be last piece of the puzzle. IRON DUDE drops in class and goes third off the layoff. Long layoff is now a thing of the past. Added half furlong might help early positioning. LAND OF DIXIE is stuck on the rail and tries this distance for the first time. Neither one of those is a good thing. Class drop and solid figs albeit on the turf still make this guy the favorite.

SIXTH RACE

MISS TIZZY FIT is by a 15% debut turf sire (nice). Her dam never tried the green and this is her first grass foal. Turf Tomlinson is a solid 317. The best race that this filly has ever run was two back when trying two turns for the first time. Class jump ensures a good price. FACTORED was sent off at 33-1 previously and that surprised us. She popped and stopped so maybe she just needed a local start. She should like the grass and we like how connections want that surface right back. ALPHA PEGASUS has run OK in all three turf starts. Jock switch to Stevens is noted.

SEVENTH RACE

WESTERN WILDCAT has worked twice since her

maiden breaker. Connections enter for this $8,500 level instead of $3,500 and that says volumes. There is some other speed in here but not a ton.

HEARTWRECKER just keeps cashing checks. Maybe the short rest will help. Jock switch to help shake things up? PEACH PIKE just didn’t fire last out. Weird. Layoff lines are a big concern. At least Werner retains the mount. Maybe this filly just needs easier which she gets today.

EIGHTH RACE

CLAIM A KISS is the big class dropper. We love this post for the distance. He has worked twice since his most recent which is another good sign. We think this guy’s debut shows that he has some talent as two turns on the turf is a tough spot. BILLY RUN has some nice figs and did run OK at this distance only three back. TIGER MARK went favored only two back. His most recent was only OK but Stevens stays put. We do not like this post for this distance.