ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, GOSILENTLY

FIRST RACE

GOSILENTLY should be loose on the lead in this mile and one-eighth maiden turf race. Based on his most recent start at one mile, he could be long gone. GOSILENTLY set a fast pace while hounded by a longshot, shook free into the lane, but got collared while finishing five clear of third. If he rations his speed while stretching to the longest distance of his career, he can wire the field. Closers dominated turf routes at this nine-furlong distance early in the meet, but two of the last five were won by the pacesetter. The knock on GOSILENTLY is this is his 13th start; he finished in the money nine straight on turf. Lightly raced (two starts) FRANKINCENSE should relish the distance. Both starts early this meet were solid efforts at one mile. He closed ground and missed by only two lengths in his debut, then finsihed third behind the top choice last out. Blinkers on, bred for the distance. ZIPMAN might finally be figuring it out, he finished second last out in a maiden50. FRIENDLY OUTTHEDOR, ODYSSEY EXPLORER and STREET TO INDY scratched from a maiden-50 last week that was moved from turf to dirt.

SECOND RACE

SWEET TREAT seems obvious, dropping to maiden-20 for her first start in seven months. She runs well fresh, has never faced a field this weak, and has enough speed to stay within range of the leaders. Slow works no problem from this stable; all systems go first start back. BLAME THE WEATHER ran well in her comeback two months ago at Golden Gate, runner-up after opening a big lead in the stretch. She returns to dirt, and might be the speed of the field. The knock is the field she met last out was not good. All five rivals ran back, only a single runner-up finish in a maiden12.5k. TENTHOUSANDREASONS also has speed; she finished second after chasing a fast pace in her comeback. Blinkers on second start back. From the inside post, her only apparently option is to use her speed. ANGEL TEARS returns from a 10-month layoff. Her form in 2017 fits with these.

THIRD RACE

Only seven entered this $25k claiming sprint, but most are legit contenders. PAPA TURF was compromised by blistering fractions both recent starts, third and second at this class level. It seems adding blinkers two back revved him up. He shortens slightly, from six and a half furlongs to six, and is drawn outside. If he can slow down just a tad early, the 4-for-40 veteran can score a rare victory. HOWDY looms a come-from-behind upset candidate, shortening from a route to a sprint first off the claim. He has been a two-turn horse most of his career, but finished second in one-turn races here in winter 2014-15 and has earned speed figures fast enough for this class. He will roll late, possibly at an overlay price. STREET VISION rallied from behind the fast pace to defeat the top choice last time in a solid comeback. With almost four weeks between starts he should run well again. BEST TWO MINUTES broke slowly from the rail and misfired last out. He was claimed, get a better post and switches to a rider usually good at getting them out of the gate. MADELYN’S WILD MAX fits off his $16k claiming win two back; KETOS drops and has speed.

FOURTH RACE

ISOTHERM gets welcome class relief, dropping from a series of graded stakes into a N3X turf mile. His fifth-place comeback two starts back was solid; he was positioned too close to a fast pace his most recent start and finished last. Off nearly two months, easier company, shorter distance, he can win from behind. PERFECTLY MAJESTIC stretches back out to two turns, with a pair of decent sprints under his belt. He also is dropping in class. The last time he ran two turns at this N3X level, he won by a neck. He is eligible to this because he entered for the $75k optional claim tag. KENJISSTORM, stablemate of the top choice, returns from an eight-month layoff. His versatile style should lead to a cozy trip postioned right behind his two main pace rivals. FABOZZI pressed and faded in his comeback vs. tougher. He is best at this two-turn distance. SUMMERSIMAGE and FREE ROSE are the aforementioned pace rivals for KENJISSTORM.

FIFTH RACE

MOONLIGHT BLUE is due. In the money three straight at this $12.5k claiming N2L level, he missed by only a head last out. He has proven form around two turns and a pressing style that

should play well against a field in which his main challengers are stretching from sprints. Thoise are UNCLE BILLY and TACO TUESDAY. This mile race is the third start this month for UNCLE BILLY, who misfired last time in his first against winners. But his maiden-40 sprint win two back makes him a threat to steal the race while dropping to the bottom for the first time. A similar comment applies to TACO TUESDAY. Overmatched last out maiden-50 starter, his front-running maiden sprint win two back gives him a look on the front end. DAD’S A GAMBLER finished in the money four straight at this level; this is his first route.

SIXTH RACE

Back-to-back runner-up efforts stamps LONGDEN the one to beat in this maiden route for 3yos. This field does not include much speed; LONGDEN is quick enough to make the lead, or press, from the inside post. ROUTE SIX SIX enters with the top figure, an 86 Beyer earned last out when he finished second in his initial route. He finished six lengths clear of third in that race, has improved every start, and is a logical contender. Tough call between the top pair. JIMMY CHILA finished only a half-length behind the top choice two starts back, then regressed last time on “sloppy.” The track is expected to be “fast” Thursday; JIMMY CHILA figures for a forwardly placed trip. BOCEPHUS, stakes-placed three times at Turf Paradise prior to an okay fourth last out vs. local maidens, will be grinding away late.

SEVENTH RACE

Despite her odds-on misfire last out, COGNITIVE gets the call in this N1X sprint for 3yo fillies. Her off-the-pace debut victory two back was solid, perhaps she was too close to the pace last out when she dueled and faded. With plenty of speed in this field, she will have targets to chase. BEST OF ME and WELL HELLO won split divisions of a restricted maiden race last out, with completely different styles. BEST OF ME pressed a solid pace and won clear with a speed figure (80 Beyer) that tops this field. From the outside post, she should get a similar pressing trip. WELL HELLO rallied from last to win going away by more than three lengths. The final time and corresponding figure were significantly slower than BEST OF ME, but the win by WELL HELLO was visually impressive. She is probably a better filly than the number suggests. HIGHLAND LASS adds speed; TRUE ROYALTY appears to have trained well for her first start since last summer.

EIGHTH RACE

SPANISH HOMBRE drops to $50k claiming after being in tough in a N2X. He won two of his last three on the Santa Anita turf; his presence in this claiming race makes sense. He was claimed for $40k in October. CONQUEST TYPHOON was re-claimed by his former connections last out, a runner-up finish in a productive $40k claiming route at Golden Gate. That race produced three next-out winners. DEFIANTLY was claimed for $40k two months ago by Richard Baltas, who is 7-for-14 first off the claim since February 2017. Graded stakes-placed LUCKY BRYAN returns from a year-and-a-half layoff, while dropping in for a claim tag. He will roll late.