Hofburg worth shot in Florida Derby

The term “big” doesn’t do justice to the kind of racing day we’ll see Saturday. It’s Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream, where that important Grade 1, $1 million Kentucky Derby prep caps a card that includes six other stakes, one of which – the Grade 2, $300,000 Gulfstream Park Mile – marks the return of 2017 Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming.

In addition, there will be a mandatory payout of Gulfstream’s Rainbow 6, which may have an enormous carryover if it isn’t taken down Thursday or Friday. This Rainbow 6 sequence is absolutely inscrutable and tailor-made for the biggest of parimutuel fishes. As evidence, it includes a Gulfstream Park Oaks in which any of the 13 entered can win – literally, any one of them.

And of course, Saturday is Dubai World Cup Day with West Coast, last year’s champion 3-year-old male, favored in the Group 1, $10 million feature. There are many other rich events on the World Cup undercard, including the $2 million UAE Derby, which attracted the formidable Mendelssohn and Gold Town. Their presence means this UAE Derby has the potential to have an unusually strong impact on the Kentucky Derby picture.

Florida Derby

Audible and Promises Fulfilled were the clear-cut winners of the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth in their last two starts – Gulfstream’s two main stepping-stones to this event – so it is no surprise that they are the morning-line favorites. Audible crushed his field in the Holy Bull, earning a career-best 99 Beyer Speed Figure that is the highest two-turn Beyer in this field, while Promises Fulfilled comfortably wired his Fountain of Youth field, getting a 96 Beyer.

Obviously, these two will take some beating, but I don’t see them as invincible. While Audible’s prior form (two victories at Aqueduct) was good, he improved so sharply in the Holy Bull that I’d like to see him validate that improvement before I buy in. Moreover, the field he beat in the Holy Bull was lacking, and he’s meeting much tougher competition this time.

As for Promises Fulfilled, he improved by 20 Beyer points in the Fountain of Youth off of his 2-year-old form. But that big jump was assisted in no small way by the fact that he enjoyed an uncontested lead when runnerup Strike Power, who has high sprint speed, elected to rate. Strike Power drew the rail this time, and I think he has to go early. If he does, Promises Fulfilled will get a lessfavorable trip.

Remsen winner Catholic Boy will be a popular alternative to the top two as his closing style fits the anticipated pace scenario. But Catholic Boy had no excuse when he lost the Sam Davis at odds-on in his 3-yearold debut, and to me, his Remsen is looking weaker with each passing week.

I’m taking a flyer here with Hofburg at 20-1 on the morning line. Hofburg, fourth at Saratoga last summer in his only start at 2, made his 3-year-old bow on the Fountain of Youth undercard and won a two-turn maiden race despite being five to six wide on the first turn, four wide on the far turn, and noticeably loafing late. You hardly ever see a horse win a route at Gulfstream with a trip like that, and you see Hofburg’s trainer Bill Mott run horses in Grade 1 races off maiden wins even more infrequently. Few are as resistant to Derby Fever than Hall of Famer Mott, so that suggests Hofburg is held in very high regard.

Dubai World Cup

West Coast hit the board against 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner in his last two starts in two of the world’s richest dirt races – the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Pegasus World Cup. I respect West Coast, and his job Saturday is easier now that Gun Runner is retired, but I prefer Talismanic.

Talismanic established his class when he upset the Breeders’ Cup Turf, besting the impressively prolific Highland Reel, among others, and followed with a second to that rival in Hong Kong. This will be Talismanic’s first start on dirt, but he’s by Medaglia d’Oro and won a prep on synthetic most recently, so I anticipate a successful surface switch.

San Francisco Mile

Editore comes in off two thirds in Santa Anita stakes behind Its in the post, currently California’s top distance turf performer, and is the play here.

Editore is significantly cutting back in distance Saturday, but I expect his last kick to be even more potent going shorter.