Smaller tickets have a shot

Provided the Rainbow 6 is not hit at Gulfstream before Saturday’s mandatory payout day, the pool is expected to be around $20 million, roughly the same amount as the last mandatory payout day, Jan. 28. But I do anticipate a smaller payoff than the $15,566 that the wager paid last time.

Saturday’s sequence, while challenging, doesn’t seem as much of a scramble as when it was disbursed last time, on a Sunday. This seems partially due to Saturday being Florida Derby Day, when stakes make up much of the sequence. There aren’t any low-end claiming or maiden-claiming races, where form reversals are a matter of course, in the mix.

And while everyone loves a fat payoff, the trade-off here is that budget-minded horseplayers have more of a chance to dive into the Rainbow 6 with modest tickets without feeling as if they have no chance against deeper-pocketed sharks.

My strategy – admittedly coming from someone who tore up his tickets after the last disbursal – will be to pool money with friends, using three to six horses per race. Below are my thoughts on the races and how I advise ranking the contenders in DRF’s Ticket Maker, either as primary “A” selections or backup “B” runners.

RACE 9, MAIDEN SPECIAL

A 1 1/16-mile grass race for 3-year-olds, this seems one of the deepest races in the sequence. I prefer Wisely (1), who gets a much better post than he did last time when a close fourth with a wide trip Feb. 24, and Art Collection (7), who debuted with a close third in a quick race.

I see four horses as “B” selections: second-time starters Rhode Island (2), Outback Bob (3), and Dawood (6) – who all had difficult trips in their debuts – and Logic (4), a more experienced colt who was a muchimproved fourth in his first turf route.

RACE 10, OPTIONAL CLAIMER

Stakes winner Outplay (9) hasn’t raced since fading to sixth behind West Coast after setting a contested pace in the Pennsylvania Derby, but looks primed for his return for trainer Todd Pletcher, whose comebackers are usually cranked off the bench at Gulfstream.

I also advise using Ready for Rye as an “A.” Although ninth in the Jan. 8 Dave’s Friend at Laurel, he won the last time he raced in an allowance, scoring at Belmont last June. A winner over the Gulfstream strip, he also typically fires fresh.

Appealing to lesser degrees are Sweet on the ladies (1), Weekend Hideaway (3), and Realm (8).

RACE 11, HONEY FOX

Three fillies seem a cut above the others: Lull (2), Stormy Victoria (3), and On Leave (10). And though others are not without a chance, my strategy will be to limit play to these three “A” runners.

RACE 12, GULFSTREAM OAKS

The lack of a standout 3-yearold filly contributed to this race attracting 13 entrants, though it seems likely to be reduced by at least one, with C. S. Incharge likely going in the Grade 1 Ashland next week at Keeneland.

I intend to use Princess Warrior (9) as an “A” play. She ran well in her seasonal debut to be fourth in the Grade 3 Here comes the bride against the top grass fillies in South Florida in what seemed an obvious prep, and now gets back on dirt, over which she is a winner and Grade 1-placed.

Two others fall in the “A” camp: Cache (4) and Blonde Bomber (6). Cache is a lightly raced filly with upside, while Blonde Bomber could return to form after two dull efforts on the road to start the year.

The “B” selections are Coach Rocks (2), Take Charge Paula (3), and Heaven has my nikki (7).

RACE 13, PAN AMERICAN

I pondered singling Sadler’s Joy (8), the second-best American turf marathoner last year behind Beach Patrol, but ultimately didn’t, given his deep closing style. He is otherwise difficult to fault, being proven over the course and having already made a start this year.

Backing him up as “B” horses are Hi Happy (3) and Bigger Picture (7). The former ran a close third to a loose-onthe-lead Heart to Heart going shorter Feb. 10 and may improve with distance, and the latter did finish in front of Sadler’s Joy in one of their three matchups in 2017.

RACE 14, FLORIDA DERBY

Audible (8) and Catholic Boy (6) look best able to handle the 1 1/8-mile distance and are the “A” horses. They should get ample pace to aid their stalking style.

Strike Power (1) is my only “B.” Although he may prove to be more of a sprinter/miler type, I have been impressed by what he has accomplished in a short period of time. And I like that he figures to utilize his speed form the fence.