ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

DECORATOR JENN will have to get back to her best to win the opener but will give her a chance to do so off the claim for a sharp trainer who has had a good winter here; has enough speed from the inside to land a trip in race where the likely heavy favorite is a bit tough to trust. CHRISTMAS SKY will go favored as she turns back to sprint after winning four of her last five over a mile; top figure most recently was accomplished with the benefit of an easy lead in a race where she never faced a challenge. SHE’S SO FINE turned back to win this race over a wet track last year, though she was in much better form at that time; has been slow to find herself since returning from a long layoff, and she was listed as a vet scratch a couple of weeks ago.

SECOND RACE

PICTURE DAY won this race last year to cap off a three-race winning streak, and she has appeared to pick up right where she left off since enduring an extended layoff; appears to be one of the more likely winners on card that gets tougher as things move along. ARCHUMYBABY a little slow on the way in, but she has a habit of making herself competitive and she has held her form since claimed by these connections at the end of 2017; turns back with some speed. MY WON LOVE earned career-best 75 Beyer when secondbest to a sharp rival in her first start for Rudy, then narrowly prevailed last time to pick up her first win in nearly two years in a slower race; will try to close them down late.

THIRD RACE

SHORT KAKES was no match for the streaking Sounds Delicious last time, but her two wins prior to trying that tougher race were legit from stalking range, and she figures tough here if able to run back to one of those; been holding solid form since being pointed to shorter races. JUST GOT OUT hasn’t had much success sprinting, and she is going to need some pace to develop to have her best chance, even as she drops out of a quality win vs. better horses in the Ladies; interesting that she lands in this race rather than the Sis City over a mile. DA WILDCAT GIRL returned to Eddie Barker’s barn off the layoff and quickly returned to the winner’s circle while cutting in half last time; plenty of back races for this trainer to give her a look, especially if the pace develops.

FOURTH RACE

SHALAKO more accomplished on grass, but he runs his race on dirt and he finished gamely for 2nd two back over this trip, before trying to close, along with everyone else, in a race that held together up front last time; projects to have a favorable set up this time with plenty of speed entered. DANEBURY did not look good in his first two starts back from the long layoff, but he did appear to find his way back last time while demolishing a very weak field on a class drop; has a couple of races in his past to suggest he’s a fit here, assuming that last one wasn’t simply a case of him finding the right field. J S BACH also appeared to catch the right field on a class drop last time, and he did what he had to do in a race where there was little happening behind him in the stretch; well-posted here with tactical speed. POLAR JET went out of town to put up the two fastest figures of his career recently, but he couldn’t get up wither time, and now has to stretch out for the first time in a race with plenty of speed signed on; tough to take as the ML favorite.

FIFTH RACE

TURCO BRAVO disappointed last time over a distance he can get, but he ran quite well two starts back while against the track, and his Claiming Crown Jewel was also an underrated effort after losing position and then trying to close in a race that was dominated up front; dangerous rival for likely favorite CONTROL GROUP. CONTROL

GROUP has won five of his last six, including a Grade 3 with a 101 Beyer, with all of those races coming around two-turns for Rudy, who has really turned this horse around since claiming him early last year; no cinch in this race, but he is the main speed and they have him to beat. MILLS has some hang in him, but he will be racing on late, and he doesn’t need a big pace to be effective. CARLINO will also be trying to narrow in late in this race; lone effort over this distance was an unlucky loss to a perfectly-ridden winner at Saratoga last summer.

SIXTH RACE

WILL DID IT will have to bounce back in order to be competitive in this spot, but he had no chance with front-running Full Salute last time, and he caught a muddy sealed track two starts back; best race will put him there and he has the kind of tactical speed to put himself in position in this race. SCHIVARELLI the one to beat dropping out of a pair of tougher races where he did his best to no avail; big win the last time he raced in NY, but that was for Rudy. SUMMER BOURBON one of the slower horses on the way in and facing the toughest competition of his career, but doing so off the claim for Rudy, who scratched him from a $32k claimer a couple of weeks ago to await this; good effort two back while always away from what appeared to be the better inside paths. MORNING BUZZ likes to make it close at the end but he is going good now and can get any kind of trip in a race.

SEVENTH RACE

Caixa Eletronica has drawn a strong field on nine, but it is difficult to get past HARLAN PUNCH based on his recent form, which includes back-to-back dominant wins with 100+ Beyers, including a tougher Stymie a couple of weeks ago; has never won over this seven-furlong distance, if that is enough for you to hold on to. BATTLE MIDWAY a closer who will need plenty of pace help as he cuts back to seven, but there could be some hitting on this race and he ran very well two back while trying to close from last in a race that did not come back for him; needs his best, and the right trip. ROCKFORD claimed again, but it doesn’t seem to matter what barn he is racing out of, as long as he is sprinting; good try last time over a distance that is a bit too far for him, but this is tougher. HELOOKSTHEPART a game and consistent closer who can take advantage if the pace gets contested in front of him.

EIGHTH RACE

SPRING FOR MORE found the right spot on the class drop and posted an easy win over this trip; faces a tougher field this time, but she tends to run her race regardless, has positional speed and is usually overlooked in the wagering. COTTON

CANDY CUTIE posted an easy win off the layoff two back to keep good run of form going, and she tried gamely last time in a race that was not coming back for her. UNTAKEN has been left behind in her two NY starts to date, but her overall form suggests that she fits in this field, and she ran better than it looks over that wet track last time; can run late if she catches some pace in this race.

NINTH RACE

MARRIAGE FEVER has seen his figures decline in his last couple of races, but he continues to show up, and it is not difficult to argue that he was best last time after giving up the rail to the eventual winner (who will be a much shorter price in this race off the Rudy claim) late; will clearly need his very best in this tough race, as well as a trip from the rail, but he is capable and his new trainer is actually very underrated off the claim (past five years, 11 for 74, 15%, $3.21 ROI). UNBRIDLED

DADDY did the work up nd on the pace and weakened late as the favorite over 10 furlongs in his most recent start, which came last December, but he was holding solid form prior to that one and he has speed from his outside post. KARMA DELIGHT was on the wrong part of the track in pair of dismallooking races two and three starts back, but his form prior to those two efforts was solid and he looked good finishing off weaker rivals last time over this distance; steps back up off the claim. BORSA VENTO landed in too tough of a spot when bumped up to face N1x competition last time; races tow and three back signaled big improvement for gelding who had been disappointing overall, and would make him tough in here.

TENTH RACE

VERY VERY STELLA took the worst of it vs. a solid field last time while forced wide into a pace that never materialized and then just missing at the end; brings strong form into this spot and is unlikely to be complaining about the pace this time.

FORTUITOUS PATH won three straight toward the end of last year before coming up short in his last two starts, where he was facing rivals who have combined for 30 career wins; comfortable closing from off the pace. GLOBAL POSITIONING contested the pace over a mile last time and was run over late by a perfect-trip winner in the mud, and he also ran well two starts back while trying to close down front-running Brimstone; turns back. MASTER MACDUFF a big price looking to improve, but he has had relatively few starts, and only two on dirt, and he took a step forward in his first start for a good trainer last time.

BEST BET: RACE 10, VERY VERY STELLA