ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, CUTTER HELM

FIRST RACE

CUTTER HELM didn’t run badly in that grass debut, and he now could be the controlling speed in this one; makes his first start as a gelding, and recent works suggest he is none the worse for wear. BIG AGENDA is a little obvious after running 2nd in each of his last three starts, all narrow losses; of course, that also makes him one to try to beat on the win end at a short price, but he’d be no surprise all the same. NANTUCKET was off the board in his bow but he was against the race flow, as the speeds held the edge there; license to improve in his 2nd career start.

SECOND RACE

HIGH MULTIPLE makes his first start off the claim, and though he’s up in class for this he fits well based on that last Beyer, which very much puts him in the ballpark with the race favorites; worth a shot at the quoted ML price of 6-1. THORNTON is another value play vs. favorite FANCY MAN, coming off a win against lesser where he also earned a 69 Beyer; needs to stay close from his inside post, as the pace could be controlled. FANCY MAN is the one to catch and beat, with wins in two of his last three; lands in another paceless race where his speed is an edge.

THIRD RACE

HOUSEER makes his turf bow in his first start for the new barn but he sports a nice work for this, and his versatility should mean he’s able to work out a trip regardless of how the race shapes up; pedigree offers few clues, as dam was unraced and sire never tried turf. SILENT CITIZEN is clearly the main danger on the strength of his Beyers; exits a sharp score where he posted a figure of 72, and if he’s able to run back to that one he’s going to be very tough indeed. MEILLEUR hasn’t run a bad race since he was switched to the grass at the start of the meet; he’s quick from the gate but he can also sit off the pace and make one run if need be.

FOURTH RACE

LAKE MARION gets back on the main track, and this does seem to be her preferred surface; she wasn’t all that close in her recent tries on dirt but she didn’t get a whole lot of pace helps in those races, and that should change today. SEDUCTIVE is having a good meet but it would be sensational were it not for High Heeled Lady, a runner she’s finished 2nd behind three times since December; that rival isn’t in this field, and this mare’s Beyers make her the one to beat this time. GET A ROOM gets back to a sprint, and she’s two-for-two at this seven furlong distance; tactical speed should help her work out a trip despite the wide post.

FIFTH RACE

CELEBRITY WARRIOR was behind CRIMSON HAYES in that last one but he closed nicely there despite the latter controlling the tempo on a loose lead from the start; a pressured pace seems more likely here, and today’s added distance also figures to work to his advantage. WAGON BOSS was game in defeat in that last one, yielding only to the heavy favorite in the late stages after dueling for the lead from the start; can also rate off the pace and make one run, and he should in fact be expected to revert to those tactics here given the expected race flow. TRISMEN has been very sharp all meet long, and he showed an ability to close ground late two back; distance the main question.

SIXTH RACE

MONKEY MIND is clearly the main danger here on the strength of that last run, which resulted in a Beyer which stands out vs. this field; looms very tough here if she’s able to run to that effort, which

seems more likely given that sharp recent work.

SIBILANT was well bet for her debut but she lost her best chance with a slow start; she did rush up to contend after that tardy start, and though she tired late she showed enough promise to indicate she’ll be a handful if she gets away cleanly this time. ROYALTY FOR LIFE has proven speed and may be able to get loose this time around, for the first time in her short career.

SEVENTH RACE

JAZZ FUSION was no threat to the winner but he just missed the place in his first start off the layoff, a decent enough effort for this level; goes longer than he ever has but he may be able to last if he can shake loose and back down the fractions. FAR TURN faded after chasing the pace in his latest but he could benefit from that experience, especially if the fractions are controlled and he works out a forward trip. GARON TOWER cuts back after setting the pace in a route in his first start off the layoff, a good try under the circumstances; clearly a threat given his figures.

EIGHTH RACE

A stumbling start cost SKRADIN position in that last run, and that left her with too much to do in her first start off the claim for trainer Derek Ryan; with a clean break she may be able to get first run at expected speed and favorite JERMYN STREET. The latter is certainly the one to fear as she seeks her fifth win in a row; would be no surprise, though a short price is a little tough to take given her inexperience at this distance. DESERT FOLLY could benefit from the added ground; may be able to make an impact late given a traffic-free trip from the hedge.

NINTH RACE

PRESAGE was moving well though the lane in that last one, her first start off the short break, and the drop in class adds to the appeal; should get enough pace, and with a clean trip she may be able to pick up all the pieces late. MARIE JOELLE failed as the favorite in both of her two starts vs. winners; she does fit well here in terms of Beyers, and she has tactical speed, but she looms another short price and she’s widest of the 10 entered. RIBBONS AND ROSES merits a look off the maiden win, which was sharp, and it came on the heels of a game effort in defeat in her prior try.

TENTH RACE

SNOWBER turned in a solid effort two back at this same distance, and though she failed to run to that line in her latest the extra distance could have worked against her; worth a shot based on that try two back, which puts her right in the middle of this. SHE’S A BIG MACHINE middle-moved in that last one, and though it was a regression that premature move could be considered a valid excuse; positional speed should lead to a favorable trip. STORM CRY weakened after setting the pace going nine furlongs last time but she will appreciate this cutback to a mile.