ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, TRINNI

FIRST RACE

This is a good race for the level and hence remembering. CALL IT LUKE is the value pick. He is feeling great and gets a little pace to chase. We actually think he is better on the dirt and that makes his recent turf win that much better. EXEMPLAR gets some class relief as he returns to the dirt. It wasn’t that long ago that this guy was putting 3 races together with Beyers of 82 or better. CRUSHIN CANDY is the popular pick. He has good speed and is in form. In his last 9 starts, he went favored 8 times but lost three times as the chalk.

SECOND RACE

DIANKA just ran better when trying two turns for the first time and it was only her second start. She has worked twice, draws the rail, and jumps in class. UH OH SEVEN has some decent figs even if on the turf. This field didn’t come up that strong. FIFTY SHADE SO GRAY CE is probably the one to beat. She took a ton of play in her debut and didn’t get a clean trip. Why two turns now though? Distance breeding isn’t our favorite.

THIRD RACE

KERN RIDGE has speed and might garner an early breather. He goes second time this dirt and that can only help. There was nothing wrong with his most recent and that field was decent. SITBACK RELAX ENJOY might like it here. A nice win two back and then a solid try on the grass in his most recent. Form cycle hints at better and he figures a good price. HEART OF VALOR just won nicely as the chalk. New barn is 1 for 1 off the claim. Arrieta sticks with our top pick so Hernandez gets to be the hero today.

FOURTH RACE

TAKE A RISK is the value (M.L. of 15-1). Once again this gelding gets good race flow. We really like his last two starts while his most recent was within 3 points of his Beyer top. We have seen this barn keep sharp runners together for multiple races. KISS SIN GOODBYE is feeling great and just ran a Beyer top. He is good on any surface. Race flow is just right for this closer. AFRICAN FIGHTER is a deep closer and might have the back of the pack to himself and if so then perhaps he relaxes best. You can’t fault his recent tries. Beyers are going in the right direction. The 1, 2, and 5 are the speeds.

FIFTH RACE

MUHAAWER ran OK in his local turf debut and it came off a medium layoff. He should be all set to improve. Notice that new barn once again finds a spot where this guy can’t be claimed. Race flow is better than average as the 4, 5, and 6 all have some speed. BIG HUNK tried two turns on the turf for the first time last out and ran just fine. AND that was with trouble. Second time this sod and routing can only help. He gets to save all the early ground with this rail start. HAT IN THE RING can pass runners and is often a good price. Added distance might help. RUSHIN TO JUDGE is by a 0 for 5 debut turf sire. His dam never tried the grass. Lone sib is 0 for 1 on the weeds.

SIXTH RACE

TRINNI has never missed the exacta on this dirt. She goes second time with her new barn and third off the layoff and both are positive. Even better is that she is the only closer in a race full of speed. Some horses just jump off the page and this is one of them. FABULOUS LADY has speed but maybe she can stalk some. New barn is just fine off the claim but claiming off Diodoro is always tricky. DANZIG FLARE has passed a runner before. She has hit the exacta on this dirt 11 times (18 starts).

SEVENTH RACE

NO EZ MONEY just figures. He has some speed and draws outside main pace foes. Added half furlong actually helps theft chances. SWISS WAGER just ran big off the short layoff. Today’s pace is quicker. A race like that one three back would fit nicely. BOMBAY BOB has New Mexico speed. Can he fire off the van ride here? A stalking try three back would be nice if connections don’t want to mix it up early with our top pick.