ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, EPPING FOREST FIRST RACE

CANDYGRAM didn’t do much running after a show of speed first time out in Florida, though he faced a pretty good field that day, and he did improve last time despite proving to be no match for a very impressive debut winner; well drawn to the outside for his third start, and his speed should play in this field, which features several first-time starters. The two most interesting firsters are from the Chad Brown barn. EARNED SUCCESS is the first foal from his dam, who was a blowout debut winner sprinting at Saratoga a few years back. He’s been training in NY all winter, while his stablemate, DR. HIPP, who was purchased for $225k after breezing 10.2 last May, spent some time in Florida; dam was a turf horse, and she is a half-sister to Zanjero, who won multiple graded stakes and earned over $1.5 million routing in his career. NEVER NEVERMORE tried gamely in his debut before coming up short, but that looked like the perfect spot to pull off a bit of an upset.

SECOND RACE

NONNA’S BOY caught a good rail and wired a field off the claim for Rudy last December, then tried rating in his next two starts to no avail; was back to using his speed at this level last time with new blinkers, but he ran off on a fast early pace before tiring late; appears to have found the right field. SPRING EMPEROR won a pair of dirt routes late last year around a couple of turf races, but he hasn’t come close in any of his three starts so far in 2018; up out of the restricted claiming ranks for this, but he faced a sharp winner last time, and he can run late if the pace is there. OPEN BAR has earned some competitive figures, but he couldn’t make an impact while racing on late into that fast pace set by NONNA’S BOY two starts back, and he came up short of longshot CALLANT while settling for 3rd last time; tries again. TWO DOWN ONE TO GO has the back races to make himself tough here, and he also has some speed, but he has been badly off form lately.

THIRD RACE

FELIX IN FABULA ran well in his first two dirt starts in Florida, including that second one where he was held up behind horses early after failing to break sharply from the gate, and then forced into a wide run; thought he unwisely gave up early position to the eventual winner last time, but he tried gamely all through the stretch there before settling for 2nd with a new top figure. HOT MESA raced very greenly after getting off to a very poor start first time out, and he had no chance to catch that drop-down winner on the lead anyway; tries winners for his second start, and while Rudy hasn’t had success with second-time starting maidens off the claim (from a very small sample), it would be no surprise to find this one stepping up significantly from that debut he appeared to really need. INFIELD IS IN drops back to a more reasonable spot after getting in too tough last time; good effort with a wide run to contention three back at this level as a follow up to his maiden win.

FOURTH RACE

EPPING FOREST has a layoff to overcome but goes for a trainer who tends to have them ready, and he has been an impressive turf sprinter so far, winning four of six starts between 5-and-6 furlongs, including that 2017 finale where he closed strongly to erase a big deficit in the stretch. ABBREVIATE cutting back after offering very little in his first start of the year at Gulfstream, and the six may be a little sharp for him, but do think he is at his best around one-turn, and his effort when cut back in the Autumn Days at the end of last year was a solid effort while getting in a bit tight in the stretch. KASUGA second off the layoff after giving up a clear lead in the stretch last time at Gulfstream; has a race available that would make him very dangerous in here, and he has speed.

FIFTH RACE

DISTORTED ADMIRAL drops down for his second start off the claim after getting in too tough in the mud last time; easy win two back vs. a weak field, and he has the right running style for this race, which doesn’t contain much speed. PRETENTIOUS has not brought his solid California form with him to NY, where he has yet to come close after five starts; no factor in either of his two starts vs. restricted claimers recently, though he did bump into blowout winners in both of those races. CELTIC SCOUT has gotten wired in both starts since returning to NY, and he may not catch a much better setup this time, but he’s run a couple of races that could give him a chance for a piece at a fair price, and he has handled a wet track in the past.

SIXTH RACE

NEON got outrun by subsequent stakes winner Lezendary in her career debut then returned to show some greenness while chasing a good pace for the level when dropped for her second start; down another notch with a chance to improve again. BUY FOR LESS stepped up in class and got outrun over a mile last time; cuts back and returns to the level of game try sprinting two starts back, where she was denied by odds-on Ouro Verde in the stretch. PRINCESS MIKAYAH has only one race that makes her competitive in this spot, but that race did come over a wet track, which seems to be in the cards for Friday; needs some pace to develop.

SEVENTH RACE

ROCK AVE. ROAD never managed to run a particularly fast race last year while going 1 for 8, but she did appear to improve her form and she caught a couple of tough trips along the way; effective turf sprinter has an adaptable running style at what should be a fair price, and she ran well on dirt most recently, in the event that this race comes off. AWSUM ROAR the horse to beat getting back to turf with a change to a dangerous trainer after sprinting on dirt in her first start back from a long layoff; owns big speed when she’s right, and he turf form prior to the layoff likely makes her too good for these. PUPAREE back to her preferred surface after failing to offer much on dirt in her last three starts; may want a bit more ground than this, but she has sprinted effectively in the past, and she did not get the greatest trip or ride in the world when last over this distance on turf.

EIGHTH RACE

HOLIDAY DISGUISE hasn’t changed leads in either of her two starts since returning from an ankle injury, which could hint at a lingering issue, but she has run well in both of those races, including that last one when forced to chase a loose on the lead Divine Miss Grey; like her getting back to seven furlongs for this, especially with a chance to catch a more competitive pace in front of her. SOUNDS DELICIOUS has been razor sharp in her last two starts, and she just dominated the Correction last time after taking control of the early pace; has to go seven this time, and she is facing a better field as well, but she is good. DIVINE MISS GREY controlled moderate fractions and never gave HOLIDAY DISGUISE a chance while winning second straight stakes last month; likely to face a tougher pace scenario this time, but she does not need the lead to be effective.

NINTH RACE

CAN’ T WE ALL GET ALONG came around very wide from the back and closed ground all the way before falling short of O SHEA CAN U SEE last time, but liked that run from him on the cutback, and he has excuses for his two prior starts. O SHEA CAN U SEE sat a nice trip after using his speed to get forward early, and he just missed an unlucky bob to remain eligible; figures tough right back. GOLD CROSS debuted in a much better field over a mile, but he really didn’t offer much after showing some brief speed; drops in class and cuts back for his second start.