ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, SARATOGA BELLE

FIRST RACE

MT. KATAHDIN has run well since returning from the break, including the long-awaited maiden score two back, and though he failed in his first start vs. winners he ran a strong race to rally for the show in a race where the speeds held the edge; can make the least run. EL COJO PAA has a pace edge, and he could get brave if able to set his own pace on a loose lead; would be the top pick if this race were just a little shorter. SUNSET CATCH, like the top pick, has license to improve off his last, when he was against the race flow.

SECOND RACE

CHIQUE TO CHIQUE rises in class off the claim but she may be good enough in her current form; she rallied nicely in a visually impressive effort two back and she was a fairly easy winner in her latest, two improved efforts after a dull try in a similar spot to today’s three back. SILLY FACTOR took advantage of a lack of pace to score on the lead on the turf last time, and she’ll look to steal this one as well; the one to catch and beat, though value could be tough to come by. MEXICANA overcame the race flow to score in her latest, her second straight win; meets better but she’s clearly in good form.

THIRD RACE

HISTORY MADE rallied nicely to score against a good group of maiden in her turf debut, an effort that certainly suggests this is her preferred surface; can beat winners in her first attempt given a contested pace up front. MADAME MILAN adds blinkers, and she’s another who stands to benefit from a contested pace up front; barn always tough on the turf here. PASSION PLUS stretches out, and she’s one of the top pace contenders in this field; figures to be prominent from the start.

FOURTH RACE

FREAKIN’ ME OUT might be the deceptive clear speed in this sprint, which is relatively light on pace; with an aggressive ride she might be able to shake loose immediately, and given that scenario she certainly has license to take these from gate to wire. SOPHIE’S PRIZE eyes her third straight, and though she makes the mandatory rise after beating non-winners of two she fits with these based on her Beyers; has the speed to stay close early, a plus if the pace is in fact controlled. TITAN CITY might be the main late danger; she was against the race flow in each of her last three starts.

FIFTH RACE

SARATOGA BELLE adds blinkers in her first start since February, and that’s a strong angle for trainer Arnaud Delacour, who also wins at a solid rate in most other pertinent trainer categories; ran very well when last seen under conditions similar to today’s, and now she moves inside. ELECTRIC is the one to beat, and she could be the one to catch, as she showed high speed in each of her last two prior to the break; she also rated effectively in her debut, however, and that versatility adds to the appeal. GODELLO has been away for quite come time but if she can show some speed off the bench she becomes a player in here.

SIXTH RACE

SNUGGLEY BEAR was shelved after the claim but it’s encouraging that she’s jumped up in class for the return, and the new barn wins at a solid rate with fresh claims; ability to lead or rate a big plus, as he should be able to work out a favorable trip regardless of how the pace scenario shapes up. ARCHANOVA is clearly the class of the race, and thus the one to beat; back Beyers make him very tough, though he does figure to take a great deal of money. MR LIGHTNING BOY was showing speed in shorter dirt races and figures to be prominent from the start today; he’s hit the board in 13 of 16 starts going back to last year.

HIGH SIDE was behind GAME LAD the last time these two met, two back, but the former was at a disadvantage in terms of pace yet he closed with interest to get the show; can turn the tables today, as a much better pace scenario seems likely. GAME LAD has been 1st or 2nd in each of his last eight starts, including wins in each of his last two; he won on the lead last time but he scored from off the pace two back, a very strong effort considering he was wide throughout after breaking from post 10. PEP THE CHAMP is better than he showed in his latest, and also two back, when he was caught off the pace in a race lacking early zip; fast pace works to his advantage.

EIGHTH RACE

CUBAN COWBOY looks like the main speed in this sprint, and that’s no small consideration in a sprint that is devoid of pace; a bumping incident at the start of his latest cost him position, and prevented him from making the lead, but given a clean start he figures to be the controlling speed today. SUPER BEAU has been going longer, and he takes the blinkers off this afternoon, but he has the early speed to stay close, and that will be an edge here if the fractions are controlled; overall win percentage makes him easier to use “underneath” as opposed to on top, however. MARBLE FALLS has some speed on his own and he will benefit from a forward trip.

NINTH RACE

PIONEER KID was overmatched against Maiden Special Weight company in that last one but he ran a very good race when in for this tag two back; should be tough in this otherwise lackluster finale if he’s able to run back to that one. WATCH CAPTAIN is a stone closer reliant on pace but he should get at least some help in that regard here, as there is some speed in this field; problems at the gate have contributed to recent dull efforts. WAR PIPE didn’t break well in that most recent try and that cost him any chance, as he wants to be close to the lead; expecting him to be involved from the start with a clean getaway.