ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, DEVINE MISCHIEF

FIRST RACE

The Keeneland spring meet gets underway with a baby race, the kind of short dash that trainer Wesley Ward has dominated over the years. Of course, everyone knows this and the prices on his two in here figure to be skimpy...so the alternative play is TRUE SAINT from the Bret Calhoun stable. The latter, bred for speed, went the co-fastest half mile from the gate at Evangeline Training Center Mar. 24. He also lands Corey Lanerie - perhaps telling since Lanerie has often ridden for “Big John” Hancock at Keeneland and that trainer has one in here. ONTHEWAYTONEVRLAND and STRIKE PLAY are the Ward representatives, with the former likely to draw the most attention off two consecutive bullets and with the barn’s primary rider, Julio Garcia, getting the mount. STRIKE PLAY didn’t work as quickly from the gate as ONTHEWAYTONEVRLAND did at Turfway, though he does have more of a dirt pedigree, being by Haynesfield. ELLE FACTOR is the previously mentioned youngster trained by Hancock, whose runners are consistently well prepared for these races.

SECOND RACE

NINETEENTH STREET might go off as a slight overlay in this short field of six as perhaps the third betting choice with Gabe Saez up. She has about as good a chance as anyone, moving back to her preferred surface on dirt after being unable to keep pace with stakes horses in a grass sprint; bullet work since her last start at Fair Grounds. KIRBY’S PENNY obviously must be respected, having won five races and posting Beyers in the mid 80s on four occasions. An obvious horse for the course, she seems to have been pointed for this meet, but she still has to shake off the rust from a layoff going back to last fall, and at odds expected to be in the even money range, will try to beat her with NINETEENTH STREET. GOLDEN DOMER has come alive this year with a win and a second in a couple starts, both at Fair Grounds, but her works leading up to this have been lethargic, a pair of half miles in 52 seconds or slower.

THIRD RACE

Unlike in the opener, jockey Corey Lanerie rides for Hancock in this race for juveniles, and best to interpret that as a positive sign for the Hancocktrained NO PICTURE CHARLIE. As noted in the first-races analysis, Hancock trainees are well prepared for these baby races, and this youngster also has twice recorded a couple gate works at Keeneland. NO BANG NO BOOM and STAGE LEFT are Ward trainees that have been scorching up the track at Turfway leading up to their first starts. The former has the quicker works of the two, though both have shown fast drills. Another to consider is SHANGHAIED ROO, who received an identical time as first-race entrant True Saint when they breezed a half from the gate at Evangeline Training Center Mar. 24. That suggests they worked in company. So use True Saint’s performance in the day’s first as a gauge for this one’s chances.

FOURTH RACE

In a race in which few of these seem worth the $20,000 tag for which they are running, STYLITUDE was at least encouragingly claimed last out for $25,000. She ran pretty well under the circumstances, finishing second in a sprint after being slow in to stride; looks ready off a short layoff and routed decently last fall. GLITTERATI GAL moves back to the dirt after a third on the grass at Tampa in a race in which she was jostled around between horses early; also gets a sweet rider change to Jose Ortiz, and Tampa invaders often outrun their odds; not a fan of the blinkers-on angle, but the barn’s numbers are alright with this move (4 for 27 over the past 5 years). VALIANT REASON, on the board in three of five starts, must overcome being away since Nov. 26 after a diet of slow five-furlong drills at Palm Meadows in Florida. And finally, the wild card is RESONATE, who fits on class but is an unknown racing on a fast dirt track, having made only one dirt start, with that coming in the slop in a race rained off the grass.

FIFTH RACE

DEVINE MISCHIEF, a $450,000 2-year-old buy and a full brother to 2014 Louisiana Derby winner Vicar’s In Trouble, beat herself first out by getting too keen behind horses and running into traffic, but rebounded second out by crushing a soft cast of maidens with an 82 Beyer in New Orleans; a powerfully built, athletic filly. HOLD HER TIGHT beat the top choice in her maiden victory at Fair Grounds a couple months ago, but in the aforementioned race in which DEVINE MISCHIEF cost herself with her inexperience. Still, this seems like a quality filly, and her stalking style should set her up for a favorable trip. Stakes dropping SO REFINED should benefit from cutting back from routes to this seven-furlong sprint after being aggressive on the lead in a couple routes at Tampa; held fourth last time in a stake, though in a slow race for the level.

SIXTH RACE

DEVAMANI, making his first start in the U.S. after establishing some decent form last year in France, is proven over wet ground and might catch a course that suits him given the wet spring in Kentucky; numerous five-furlong works over the tiring main track at Payson leading up to this race should have him fit for his return. BUSINESS EXPENSE and SOGLIO both come off third-place finishes at Gulfstream in which they had troubled trips. The former was bounced around entering the first turn when he last raced in December, while the latter got stuck in traffic and was steadied when outquickened to a hole on the second turn of his last race in February. High-profile barns for both likely result in them starting as underlays.

SEVENTH RACE

D SQUARED sat a perfect trip stalking two dueling leaders in his debut Mar. 11 at Gulfstream, and though he didn’t finish it off with a victory, that is mostly because Autostrade, one of those leaders, just kept going, leaving this one to run a distant second. ‘D has come back to train well at Palm Meadows, as he did prior to his debut. Stablemate COROT also has been recording some lively drills at Palm Meadows in preparation for his return after running third in his lone race last fall at Woodbine. ALMITHMAAR displayed speed to hit the front first out at Gulfstream and battled gamely to be a close second, though he didn’t switch leads. Less enthusiastically, he got whipped in company in a Mar. 22 workout that can be viewed online on xbtv.com.

EIGHTH RACE

Former claimer SISTER KAN went to the sidelines with a knee chip after a successful first half of 2017, and has come back post surgery better than ever, winning a pair at Fair Grounds; 6 for 12 on dirt and has the tactical speed to sit a nice stalking trip. ASTROLLINTHEPARK is eligible to improve upon her seasonal debut when third at Oaklawn in a race run quickly at every call; is a minor stakes winner going this distance of six furlongs. SWEET LEGACY outperformed expectations by finishing third in a stakes race at Tampa at 41-1 odds while chasing some speedy fillies at a route. That race earned her a career-best 86 Beyer, though cutting back in distance to three quarters could cause regression; has been raced exclusively from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

NINTH RACE

ANALYZE IT dropped jaws with the ease in which he won a pair of turf races last year at 2, first taking a maiden race and then repeating against a talented cast in a Grade 3 when shipped across country. He took the worst of the draw by landing the outside post, but blessed with speed and talent, he should be able to overcome it; out of action since last fall but returns for trainer Chad Brown, the Eclipse Award winner the past two years. MARAUD wore down a loose on the lead horse to win the Grade 3 Palm Beach most recently - and the form from that race was validated when the third-place finisher, Therapist, came back to win a stake at Gulfstream last week. He should get a favorable stalking trip from the inside. CAPTIVATING MOON rallied to finish second in a stake at Tampa last out that was far better than one would have anticipated for a $75,000 stake; 6-2-3-0 over his career with his only off-the-board finish coming in the slop.

TENTH RACE

Although most Keeneland races are superior than similar races at most other tracks, that is not true of their low-end claimers, which are mediocre affairs. That seems to be the case with this race, and generally in substandard races it is better to go with price horses than to take horses that go favored by default. With that reasoning, the choice is value play HANDY CANDY, who has gone unplaced in his last three races but with excuses. Two losses came on muddy tracks, and the other on Polytrack against allowance foes; stalking style to get a good trip. LIBERTY LANE seems the classiest of these based on recent form, and has a skilled trainer in Larry Jones, but suspect this horse will be overbet; seems the best of the frontrunners. UNDER AND OVER has an appealing main track record (8 for 25), but was dull last out when eighth at Delta Downs, though he was encouragingly claimed that day by high-percentage owner Maggi Moss; a couple fast races from this one in February.