ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, PACIFIC STRIKE

FIRST RACE

Sixth as the favorite in her comeback, CHALKY is the choice stretching to a route in this maiden special-weight for turf fillies and mares. Her comeback served its purpose. She was rated early, went one-paced in the lane, and then galloped out in front of the field. Not bad for a filly making her first start in nearly three months. She benefits from the added distance of this mile race. Grade-3 placed YOU MISSED IT makes her first start in nearly a year. She hit the board her first six starts before misfiring and going to the sidelines last spring. She proved last March in a maiden race on this course that she runs well fresh. The improving BEAUTY DIVINE stretches out for the first time and is quick enough to set or press the pace. Two turns should be fine. She will be kept busy up front by stretch-out MEAL TICKET, who set/pressed the pace in a sprint last out.

SECOND RACE

MOST AMUSING debuts for trainer Bob Baffert with a string a sharp works and a win-early pedigree. Sired by Malibu Moon, the colt’s dam (Comic Marvel) won her career debut; her first runner (Eloquent Riddle) also won first out. All systems go from the outside post. Baffert also starts firsttimer LONTANI, who was restless in the gate and scratched from his scheduled debut March 10. He was 7-2 second choice in the betting when he scratched. He appears to have worked well since and should come out firing. BLAZE OF GLORY was scratched from his scheduled debut March 25. The first-time starter reportedly is not quick, but he can finish. HIGHLY DISTORTED is the only starter with racing experience. Sixth of seven in his debut, he is likely to improve second time out.

THIRD RACE

COLOSI improved when he switched to turf this winter; he won a maiden sprint by more than four lengths followed by a decent third in a stakes race. Freshened two months, dropping to N1X, logical choice to win with a pressing trip. MOVE OVER finished a promising second in his U.S. debut, then was compromised by a nightmare trip at one mile. He steadied early, got rank and was difficult to manage, rallied wide, and went flat. The route race was a toss. He returns to the downhill course on which he ran well in January and looms a legitimate threat from off the pace. Deep closer CONO finished second last time under similar conditions (N1X turf sprint, 3yos). He is trained by Michael McCarthy, who also entered comebacker AXELROD. Not sure about sprinting or turf for the latter. He is the only two-time winner in the U.S. in this field; both wins were two turns on dirt.

FOURTH RACE

Only six in this $25k claiming route; all six have a look. MERCER ISLAND scored convincing wins twice this meet vs. N2L and N3L rivals. He moves up in class for new trainer Bill Morey, 6-for-9 this year first start off the claim. Sharp horse in good hands can handle the class hike. OUT OF PATIENCE also won both this meet, while facing company similar to these. A seven-time winner at Santa Anita (13-for-50 overall), the gray front-runner/ pace-presser might be the one to catch. GENERAL IKE returns to a dirt route after being claimed nearly two months ago. He ran run long or short, turf or dirt. Fast works since the claim are standard; GENERAL IKE has been posting bullet workouts his entire career, since he entered training in 2013. DUKES UP will roll late. His runner-up finish last out was possibly better than it looks. The pace was slow, the winner led wire to wire, DUKES UP rallied from last to miss by a head. Rider switch to Kent Desormeaux. RAAGHEB drops in class second start back; GENTRIFIED finished behind OUT OF PATIENCE last out. The trainer of GENTRIFIED (Vladimir Cerin) has won with four of his last seven starters.

FIFTH RACE

The runner-up finish by SUBIC BAY last out was much better than it looks. Four-wide start to finish in a similar N2L claiming turf mile, she ran super. She actually made the lead in the stretch, but the ground loss was too much to overcome and finished second by less than a length. If she can save ground somehow, she can handle this field. Front-runner PADDY JEAN is probably the one to catch. She set the pace and finished third last out

in a turf sprint vs. $40k N2L fillies and mares; she drops one level and stretches back to a route. Her three most-recent turf route starts produced three successive runner-up finishes. KHALEESI also drops and stretches out. She has run well against better company; she will keep PADDY JEAN honest on the lead. ROAD TEST, who finished in the money three of five at this level, will be ridden for the first time by Corey Nakatani. He entered the week as the meet’s top percentage rider on turf (21.4 percent).

SIXTH RACE

Class-drop comebacker MIDNIGHT SOOT and laststart runner-up BOURBON DUDE are the principals in this maiden-30. The edge goes to MIDNIGHT SOOT, shortening to a sprint for his first try in a maiden-claiming race and first since December. MSW-to-maiden-claiming is a winning move by trainer Phil D’Amato (27 percent, $2.31 ROI past five years). BOURBON DUDE finished second both recent starts vs. similar. Those were both five-horse fields, but ‘DUDE ran well both times. SIERRA ECHO broke slowly and rallied to second in a creditable debut. ASTRO RIDER enters with the highest last-start speed figure (61 Beyer). He finished more than five lengths clear of next-start winner Optic, who returned to defeat BOURBON DUDE.

SEVENTH RACE

Runner-up last out in an open $25k claiming sprint, TANGLED UP IN JU drops to $16k claiming N3L. She has speed, enters as the fastest horse in the field, and benefits from the draw. The outside post produced nearly 20 percent winners this meet in six-furlong sprints, irrespective of field size (9 of the 18 outside-post winners were favorites). PARTY HOSTESS, starter allowance winner two back, misfired last time vs. Cal-bred allowance foes, drops into a restricted claiming race. RIZZI’S HONORS finished second at this level last out, her runner-up finish was flattered when the winner Conquest Flatterme returned Sunday to win by five lengths.

EIGHTH RACE

Five of these maiden fillies scratched March 10 when the race moved from turf to dirt. Among those that scratched was top choice PACIFIC STRIKE. She remains the horse beat. Compromised by outside posts both recent starts (third both times), she draws the inside post and picks up Nakatani. Also-eligible ROCKIN READY finished second both starts, both sprints. She stretches out and could set the pace if she draws in. FLUFFHEAD ran around the course and finished a no-threat eighth in her debut. Expect significant improvement second time out. FLUFFHEAD, AHA, PARTY DANCER and HEAVEN ESCAPE scratched from the same race as the top choice.