Sporting Chance could wire field

Saturday is the most important single day of Kentucky Derby preps, with three major events: the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby, the Grade 2, $1 million Blue Grass at Keeneland, and the Grade 2, $1 million Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

In addition, the three tracks hosting these prestigious events also have stakes-packed undercards. Among the most notable of these supporting stakes are the Grade 1, $500,000 Ashland at Keeneland, the Grade 1, $400,000 Santa Anita Oaks, and the Grade 1, $400,000 Carter at Aqueduct.

Unfortunately, weather might be an issue at all three locations. The forecast for Keeneland calls for heavy morning snow, with snow also possible for Aqueduct. Rain is likely for Santa Anita.

Blue Grass Stakes

Well aware that disrespecting a champion after one dull performance is inviting trouble, I’m standing against Good Magic here. Good Magic, last year’s Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male on the basis of a smashing score in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (which was also his maiden victory), did not run well in his 3-year-old bow when third in last month’s Fountain of Youth Stakes. He was clearly out of gas late on the far turn and gave ground through the stretch while finishing behind Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power. Notably, those two were beaten the length of the stretch when last and next-to-last in last week’s Florida Derby after dueling each other into defeat.

In fairness, the Fountain of Youth was Good Magic’s first start in four months. Maybe he simply needed the race, or maybe he just didn’t care for Gulfstream, although he had no difficulty handling the three different tracks he raced on at 2. Then again, after that effort, it’s reasonable to wonder if Good Magic has made the transition from 2 to 3 that he must make to remain a leading Kentucky Derby hopeful. Either way, it’s tough to love Good Magic off his Fountain of Youth as the favorite against a big field when there are other alternatives, even if he is a champion.

Sporting Chance is taken to upset at a price. Sporting Chance’s third in the Southwest Stakes in his first start since he won last summer’s Hopeful despite ducking out sharply late was a decent effort considering he was coming off a 5 1/2-month injuryinduced layoff, was going two turns for the first time and had a bit of stretch trouble. Most recently, Sporting Chance finished fifth in the Rebel, but he ran into a monster in Magnum Moon, and he wasn’t helped by being five wide on the first turn, and four wide on the far turn.

Last year, Sporting Chance showed fine sprint speed. This year, he’s been rated, even though he’s been routing. I hope Sporting Chance, now primed for his best third start off the layoff, returns to a speed approach Saturday, which he should after drawing the 2 post. If he does, he might well wire this field.

Wood Memorial

Enticed will be the favorite off a solid win in last month’s one-turn mile Gotham while stretching back out to two turns. However, I suspect Enticed might be at his best right now in extended one-turn races like the Gotham. I realize he won the Kentucky Jockey Club last year going two turns, but that was a slow race, and I thought his third before that in the Champagne, going a oneturn mile, was a much better effort.

Restoring Hope is my play. Restoring Hope comes off a decisive score in a maiden route at Santa Anita, the quality of which alone makes him a contender. But what really sells me on Restoring Hope is the high regard trainer Bob Baffert has for him. Baffert is equipped to get a sharp read on Restoring Hope considering he also has such standout 3-year-olds as Justify, Solomini, and the sidelined McKinzie in his barn, so his opinion on this colt speaks volumes.

Santa Anita Oaks

The Santa Anita Derby is a two-horse race between Justify and Bolt d’Oro, and with the forecast at 48 hours out I’ll pass right now on Santa Anita’s turf stakes. That leaves the Oaks, in which Midnight Bisou will take a ton of beating.

Spectator is a viable alternative, though. Spectator showed promise last year winning the Sorrento, and beat a handful of older opponents in her successful recent comeback. She now moves back in with straight 3-year-olds, a class move that should not be underestimated this time of year.