ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, ROYAL INHERITANCE

FIRST RACE

STRONG SIDE just about out of chances as a 5yo with 14 starts behind him, and he has settled for 2nd or 3rd in half of them, but he finds himself in a now-or-never spot in the opener while facing a field he is simply faster than; can’t take him going forward if he doesn;’t get it done here. OPERATOR landed in a tough spot vs. the talented Westerdale over a sloppy track first time out, where his rider appeared to briefly be out of his left iron at the start, and he tired badly in the stretch after trying to chase the pace; drops right away for Mott, who has very good numbers MSW-to-MCL (34% overall with a $2.28 ROI, and 4 for 16 cutting back on dirt with a $5.13 ROI). THE CHAMO caught wet tracks in his first two starts off the layoff, and he didn’t see out the mile last time; cuts back with some speed and his debut was a pretty promising effort.

SECOND RACE

DESIROUS didn’t really go on after a NY debut that was better than it may appear, but she did break her maiden over a mile while making all the pace, and she faced a couple of tougher fields for the level prior to hitting the sidelines; starts back with speed for a trainer who has strong numbers returning from this kind of break (past three years, 180+ day layoff, dirt: 5 for 14, 36%, $3.73 ROI, 2 for 3 with sprinters in that sample). JACQUELINE D ran well in off-the-turfer last November, then returned to dirt two starts later to dominate maidens with a career-best Beyer; bombed as a heavy favorite last time but she was always wide over an inside track that day, and Woundwithhereyes came right back to win again. OUR WHIM has found her form dropping off noticeably in three starts so far this year, and she didn’t exactly turn things around when a distant 2nd to a longer priced winner in that last one; has the back races to be too good for these horses, but she has to find a way to turn it around first.

THIRD RACE

ROYAL INHERITANCE has dropped five straight since using her ample early speed to get off to a four-for-five beginning, but she has run pretty well in the recent losses while finding some tough spots, including that last one where she was beaten to the front by a sharp Nisha; projects to make the lead this time, and she may offer a bit of value in this spot. Will need her best in the face of STARTWITHSILVER, who was very impressive in winning first two starts once switched back to dirt, including the Broadway, and she actually ran well while being forced into a wide run before just missing 2nd behind the razor-sharp Sounds Delicious in the Correction. NO NEED TO APPEAL went back to back over a route of ground before her 3yo campaign ended early last May; starts back sprinting for top connections.

FOURTH RACE

ATLANTIC FORCE a Juddmonte castoff with plenty of pedigree, though her top-class dam has not been a producer, and he drops right away for new owners after proving to be no match for allowance rivals late last time; has some speed from the rail and may be the best horse in this field, if he can sprint. LOVE YOUR BUTTONS faced some better horses on turf last year, and he has a real trip the last time he was on grass; lack of early speed an issue, but there is some pace in this race. DARING DESTINY didn’t do anything special on grass early on despite having a nice pedigree; switches back after costing himself while blowing the turn in his main track debut, and then coming back to stay straight to break his maiden on the front-end last time.

FIFTH RACE

SISTER SPARROW was one of two interesting firsters in the 3rd race back on February 16th, but it was the other one, Letmetakethiscall, who took the money and wired that field, while SISTER SPARROW chased her early and tired in the stretch; drops into a spot where her speed figures to play, and the margin of her debut defeat is exaggerated, as her rider was easing off on her in the stretch. FRAU BLUCHER also debuted in MSW company and took some money, though she appeared to

land in a weaker field, and she was no factor in that race; adds Lasix for her second start, and worth pointing out that she was always three-wide in that debut, which was contested over a track that featured a strong rail. SPEED KHALEESI a half-sister to the closing sprinter Benevolence, as well as four other winners from this dam; has been training steadily into her debut. TIZ R BELLA improved from start to start on turf through the second half of 2017 and she broke through over this turf course in her third career start, before getting outfinished late in her first start vs. winners over an inner turf that was favoring speed; has to improve, but possesses more upside than most in this field. ZENBENNIE shipped to NY for low-profile connections as a 3yo and wired $40k maiden claimers at Saratoga, then improved while stepping up in class in her next three starts without winning; owns dangerous speed from the inside. WAR CANOE got awful good on turf at the end of last year, winning back to back restricted claimers over AQU turf, and then stepping up to this level and running another good one while trying to close ground over that speedfavoring inner turf course; trainer has won five races over the last six racing cards here. HARDLY MATE back to NY after trying a couple of tougher races at Gulfstream, and she lost all chance while nearly losing Carmouche at the start when finishing behind both WAR CANOE and TIZ R BELLA when last in NY; closer needs some pace.

SEVENTH RACE

CAUSE FOR SURPRISE isn’t exactly reliable based on most recent form showing, and he is dropping after having been listed as a vert scratch since last seen at the end of November, but he is better than these horses with his good race; can’t trust him, but this is the right spot assuming all is well. GETOFFMYBACK gave the razor-sharp Morning Breeze a fight over a sloppy track two starts back, then was no match for that rival over fast going last Saturday in the Peeping Tom; class drop helps. GOING STRONG got outrun in that Peeping Tom and was never a factor while staying down on the inside throughout the running; closer needs pace to run at in order to be effective, and there is some speed in this field.

EIGHTH RACE

FIRE AWAY a listed type landing in $100k stakes that comes up tougher than usual, but he is 3 for 3 over AQU turf, projects to have some pace to close into in this race, and he ran well in his seasonal debut down at Tampa where he closed the gap from off the pace, despite having to go over a fallen rival on the second turn. MO TOWN was adrift in his career before switching to turf last October and suddenly finding himself to past back to back fast wins, including a closing run in the Grade 1 Hollywood Deby; this is likely just a starting off point for him, but he appears to be training forwardly into his 4yo debut. MACAGONE the two-time defending Danger’s Hour champ, and he is likely to catch another turf course with at least a little “give” to it, which he loves, but this race came up quite a bit tougher this year, and there is plenty on other speed to keep him occupied up front.

NINTH RACE

RUBY WARRIOR making her debut in the right kind of spot for a very good trainer. Only other foal to race from this dam was Possetano Price, who had a real trip in his debut for these connections, with Junior riding, before coming right back to win his next start easily with a show of speed, and he ended his abbreviated career with a 75 Beyer win off a Linda/Avanti reclaim a couple of years back; won’t have to be that good vs. this field. ALY’S ALL OUT also making her career debut for an excellent trainer, and she is by a speed sire while being out of a dam who managed to win four times in her career, despite being devoid of speed; Rudy 7 for 23 (30%) over the past three years debuting maiden claimers in dirt sprints at Aqueduct ($2.57 ROI). MEGALOPSYCHIA and JURERE finished noses apart in 2nd and 3rd in a slow race at this level last time, and they can both benefit from the turn back from the mile. MISSIMPAZI has the back races to be a handful here, and she has speed, but she has been short prices right along and her recent form fails to inspire confidence.