ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, GINGERMORE FIRST RACE

FASHION ENVY, twice outrun in maiden $50,000 claimers on the grass in Florida, faces much easier maiden $20,000 runners in this race, and her pedigree suggests she can handle the shift to the dirt; winning trainer/jockey combo with Walsh and Lanerie - who have combined to win at a 23% clip together at all tracks in 2017-2018. RESONATE looms the likely favorite after a runner-up finish here over the Keeneland strip Apr. 6 in which she outperformed a number of today’s runners; solid prospect, though as a 4-year-old that has already started six times, perhaps less upside compared to a lightly raced 3-year-old such as FASHION ENVY or SHE’SGOTTHEBEAT. As for the latter, she ran decently with a fourth and a fifth in maiden $30,000 races at Oaklawn Park, though in short seven-horse fields; bred to route and well drawn on the fence.

SECOND RACE

Have always liked supporting speed-and-fade types routing for the first time, provided they are starting for winning trainers...they often maintain their speed better than the public anticipates. So with that in mind, MRS ROCCO gets the nod in the second race with a stretch out and class drop for trainer Brad Cox. Her form is ordinary, but she is in skilled lands and also lands the inside post, a nice draw going 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland. SHE’S GOT PRIDE ran decently to be fifth at Fair Grounds Feb. 2 when fifth of nine on an open 3-year-old claiming race for a $30,000 tag, and is now back on what is likely her preferred surface on dirt. She broke her maiden on the Laurel main track and was also second in a three-horse photo in the slop at Fair Grounds over the winter. MY KINDA DEVIL, on the other hand, seems to like grass racing better than running on the dirt. She did run second on dirt two back in New Orleans, but was beaten 8 lengths in a short field that was depleted by scratches when it was moved from turf to dirt.

THIRD RACE

Trainer Wesley Ward has entered a pair of first timers in this 4 1/2-furlong baby race: ABYSSIN- IAN, a filly, and STAGE LEFT, a gelding. Horseplayers shouldn’t penalize ABYSSINIAN for facing male rivals - as fillies more than hold their own in dashes for young 2-year-olds, particularly when Ward is training them. This one has also shown a lot of promise in the mornings. STAGE LEFT has the faster works for the two over the local surface, and acts like a nice one in his one right. INDA ZONE has the benefit of a race, running third in a quick, 12-horse field Apr. 11; logical threat for a barn that hasn’t yet won a baby race at Keeneland this year, but did so during past springs here.

FOURTH RACE

SHEZAPRADO, much sharper this winter and spring after a couple confidence-boosting claiming victories, showed she could go a marathon distance when third in the Soaring Softly Stakes at Gulfstream Mar. 30. Admittedly, that was a race that lacked top-to-bottom depth, but she nevertheless looked good in running down a Todd Pletcher-trained runner for the show position. BENGALA comes here by way of Ireland, where she was stakes placed in April of last year. She then raced in some rather salty spots, including when ninth in the Grade 1 Irish Oaks in a race won by superstar Enable; in a favorable spot for her U.S. debut. LOVIN EMPIRE won a starter $50,000 race Mar. 16 with a wide trip but was just a narrow winner in a head-bobbing finish that she could have lost a jump before or after the wire; bred to stretch out to a marathon and trainer Mike Maker excels with this move.

FIFTH RACE

GINGERMORE may seem a little cheap for the $10,000 level in examining her recent form, having started two times for $4,000 before this, but she has back class and looks to be back on her game since rejoining the Chris Richard barn; nice value at her 6-1 morning line. PROM THEME is still performing well at age 9, winning three races from four starts this year; is deservingly the filly to beat - especially when taking into account her 90-1817-12 career mark. WHAT WHAT WHAT didn’t really pan out after a private purchase last winter at Fair

Grounds, though she did manage one stakes placing for two-time Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill. Perhaps her new barn, who claimed her for $8,000 at Oaklawn, can get her going in the right direction again.

SIXTH RACE

DOT MATRIX has two victories and a second in three starts for trainer Brad Cox, whose runners continue to dominate, whether running in Kentucky, Arkansas or Louisiana. This one comes here by way of Fair Grounds, and horses from New Orleans have been outperforming the betting public’s expectations. PROFITEER is multiple stakes placed, including twice in graded company, and managed on-the-board finishes this winter in allowances at Gulfstream that had stakes-caliber fields; a rare poor effort did come over this course last year at 3, however. SPACE MOUNTAIN finished 2017 with two allowance scores, including once over this course; proven fresh heading into his first start of 2018.

SEVENTH RACE

AVIATOR PARKS comes off a runner-up finish in New Orleans on the grass, and is versatile enough to handle the switch to racing on the main track; on the board in three of four dirt starts - with the exception coming after a long layoff in the fall of 2017; tactical speed and was third over this track as a 2-year-old. SOMETHING BIRD is much improved as a 3-year-old compared to a mediocre 2-year-old season; particularly encouraged by his latest when rallying to be second on the grass - a nice effort from a horse that had been exclusively a dirt horse to that point. PADDOCK CRASHER has the benefit of a race over the track this meet, finishing fifth against classier $40,000 claimers Apr. 11. Cut in half to $20,000, he fits classwise, though the stretch out to 1 1/8 miles is a negative given that he faded going shorter last out. He is part of an entry with class-dropping comebacker ALL UP IN LIGHTS, another one to consider.

EIGHTH RACE

GOLDEN AMBER won two of three starts in turf sprints this winter in New Orleans, and managed to win her latest after falling farther off the pace than accustomed; fresh off a two-month layoff while seemingly being geared up for a start at Keeneland for a Lexington owner. BRIELLE’S APPEAL blew away first-level allowance stock at Fair Grounds in a blistering comeback, likely goes favored but could regression slightly second time off the bench after such a fast race. MAY LILY is a surprisingly effective turf sprinter considering she doesn’t have much speed; she regularly falls back to the rear half of the field before kicking on down the lane; limited published works on her tab for her first start in a couple months, but that is not uncommon for a Greg Foley trainee.