ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, TEN PENNY PRINCESS FIRST RACE

TEN PENNY PRINCESS is down in class after running a strong 2nd in her most recent, when she chased the loose-on-the-lead winner from the start; she was flattered when that runner scored again, and she’s the one to beat based on her Beyers. LADY GREGORIA beat the boys in her latest, and though she’s up in class here she merits respect based on the figure she earned; tactical speed a plus. LA GRUNY is widest but she has speed and she could be tough to reel in if she’s able to shake loose.

SECOND RACE

CANDY POWER is easy to like after hitting the board in each of his last three starts, and his versatility adds to the appeal; may get first run on expected pacesetter BOATS GILHOOLEY. TOMS ONTHEWARPATH adds blinkers and Lasix for this after failing to make an impact in any of his first three starts; note the pace excuse two back. KING MIDAS lands in a relatively soft spot for his debut, and he has some works that hint at some ability; kin to five previous starters, all winners.

THIRD RACE

HIGH GRADE COTTON was far up the track in his first start vs. winners but he was against the race flow there, and he should get a better set up today; worth a shot at a big price. POLLARD STAR was no match for the winner but he did well to get the place in his own initial try vs. winners; may be the one to beat here off that line. CALL ME HANDSOME has had his chances but he is moving up by attrition at this level, as the better horses graduate as the meet wears on; should be prominent from the start from his inside post.

FOURTH RACE

SCORPION ALY settled for the place in her latest but that was a deceptively good effort, as she was chasing the loose leader and eventual winner, who controlled the pace in a paceless route; just needs a little help from the frontrunners, and a clean start. CAN’T STOP BELIEVN was also hampered by the race flow in that last one; stands to improve if the pace is faster, if not contested. SOUTHERNPERFECTION is the main speed; distance is a question but she’ll take them as far as she can on the front end.

FIFTH RACE

JUKEBOX MONEY was run down in the late stages after setting the pace but she held gamely until late in the game, and that was after some pre-race antics may have cost her; looms the main speed once again. FORTUNE KITTY drops from a Maiden Special Weight race in her 2nd career start, and those are two powerful angles for trainer Arnaud Delacour; big threat by default given those stats alone. STORMY ARABELLA is back in for a tag and reunited with Gallardo; slow start cost her in that last run.

SIXTH RACE

EVOLUTION looks like the main speed in this sprint, which is otherwise seemingly light on pace; can steal it if in fact able to shake loose and control the pace from the start on a clear lead. DOODLE HOPPER was a game winner in his latest, overcoming a controlled pace and a lack of speed to get up in time; in a similar situation today but he’s

clearly good enough to overcome it. DIVINE AMBITION has steady Beyers, an inside post and tactical speed; also loves this distance.

SEVENTH RACE

PHILO is a little obvious, given his Beyer edge and the fact that he’s making his first start for a tag; that fact, combined with the layoff, can be construed as a negative, but this barn does win at a very high rate with runners making this class drop. MIZZEN LYNX went down as the favorite when last seen but he had some early trouble; tactical speed should mean he works out a favorable trip regardless of race flow. DIAMOND LUCKIE might be the one to catch from the rail; would prefer him more at a shorter distance but given a loose lead he could get brave on the front end.

EIGHTH RACE

HEAVEN’S HUMOR is kin to five winners, and two of them were accomplished stakes winners, with Holy Heavens a multiple graded stakes-placed router and Heaven’s Runway winning several stakes and earning over $600K; solid works add to the appeal, as she does seem to have some speed. NORA’S DRAMA has some early zip and she hails from a barn which excels with firsters here; kin to two starters, including Sisters Bold, who won her own debut. MOLLY’S GAME looks best of those runners who have started, based on that last figure; should make her presence felt late.

NINTH RACE

BIRD HUMOR ships back from Gulfstream after he was a solid 2nd in his last appearance at Tampa, and he won both of his other two starts over this course; should be rolling late, as there seems to be plenty of pace in this race to set up a closer. STEAMBOAT BILL sat a perfect trip in that return from the layoff but he should be in a similar spot here, as he has the positional speed to work out a trip behind the expected duel. PEP THE CHAMP hasn’t gotten a whole lot of help from the pacesetters in some of his recent tries but that should change today; needs a clean trip from the hedge.