ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, BIG ROCK

FIRST RACE

DAY TRADER ran well in her debut so we know she can fire fresh, and she’s been working steadily for Fawkes who has respectable numbers with horses coming back from a lengthy break. Gaffalione attracted and she drops into a maiden claimer for the first time. PAPER OVER PLASTIC is a half to a turf winner, has been working nicely at Palm Meadows, and it is hard to ignore the strong numbers Gargan has with first-time starters. BRIGHT VENEZUELAN is an obvious contender and at the very least should be part of any exotics ticket.

SECOND RACE

SHADOW ROCK got off to poor starts in his last two versus tougher and if he runs back to his race three back he’ll be tough to beat. The 8-year-old ran well without blinkers early in his career so maybe taking them off will help him turn things around. CHARLIE THE GREEK will find these more to his liking after running against tougher for a while now. The last time he ran in a conditional claimer he won. It also won’t hurt if it comes up sloppy. ARCHVILLAIN has a solid record on dirt and won’t mind the surface switch for a trainer who has decent numbers with newly claimed horses. HORNER MAN is the winner if he can produce an 83 Beyer again. Seems like a big if, though.

THIRD RACE

SUPER G SIX debuts for Pletcher who the past five years at Gulfstream has a 27 percent strike rate with first-time starters running in maiden claiming races. They usually get bet down if they can run so the tote board should tell us more. GILDED DRAMA got off a step slow when she debuted in a race at this level in which the runner-up came back to win a $50K maiden claimer at Keeneland with a 68 Beyer. Easy to imagine the half-sister to $259K stakes winner Burning Time improving with the experience behind her. ALL GOLDEN has been right there in her last three for $35K and this doesn’t appear to be that tough so she doesn’t look out of line with the move up in price.

FOURTH RACE

FRENCH ACCENT showed some promise after breaking poorly in his second start and could live up to it in his first race as a gelding. Nicks can have them ready to roll coming off this kind of layoff and this guy is a full-brother to route stakes winner Soutache so he should be fine stretching out to a middle distance. SHIDOSHI was in the mix early when he ran on dirt for the first time in his last start in New York the runner-up earned a 74 Beyer when he won a $20K maiden in his next outing at Aqueduct. Nice to see Zayas aboard for his 4-year-old debut. IRON JOHNNY is probably better on grass but he does own the best Beyer on dirt and he ran a decent race when he dropped to this level last time.

FIFTH RACE

KING MAURO is a two-time winner on grass so he should appreciate the surface switch. He is making his first start for Jiminez who the past five years has a 33 percent strike with newly claimed horses, and he should also get a cozy trip breaking from the rail with Zayas riding. STAY ON BASE ran the race of his life last time and being the only 3-year-old in the field he could have the most upside. Not sure if he wants to go this far, but, he should get some stamina from his sire so that remains to be seen. MR. PAPILLON does want to go this far and could rebound following a dull effort going 7 1/2 furlongs in a race they were flying early. He moves inside, should be able to get into the race early, and it is encouraging to see Gaffalione keep the faith.

SIXTH RACE

BIG ROCK didn’t fire coming back from a lengthy layoff and it is possible being another year older the 6-year-old needed a race. He rarely runs a dull race, has worked smartly in the interim, and could be sitting on a big effort for a sharp trainer. Toss his comeback race he is clearly the horse to beat.

HIGH HOURS is a graded winner in his home country and the Brazilian-bred ran well in both of his starts in North America last year. He could make an impact in is first start for Nicks who has solid numbers with new shooters. MOONWALKER had a rough trip breaking from the rail last time and could be dangerous breaking from the outside post in this compact field. Nobody should be surprised if he’s the winner.

SEVENTH RACE

SOLDAT HOUSE drops to a new low for her initial start this year and the past five years her trainer, Peter Walder, has a 29 percent strike and $2.75 ROI with horses coming back from a break of 180 days or more running in races that were a mile or longer; 2 for 6 in the same category with ones running on grass. RATE OF RETURN got bumped around pretty hard going in the first turn when she was heavily favored to win a shorter race at this level. She could make amends with a clean trip but she would look more attractive moving up in price after being claimed. DUDACITY and PROSPECTIVELY are lightly raced 3-year-olds that look capable of winning what appears to be a wide-open event.

EIGHTH RACE

INDYGITA is a bit win shy, but, she has had four solid works since she finished a troubled fifth for $16K and could be sitting on a big effort in her first start for a trainer who has excellent numbers with newly claimed horses. FEED ME CARATS has won half of her six starts here and she had a rough trip when she was nosed out for second in a similar race April 21. Gaffalione retains the mount and he should know her better after riding her for the first time in her latest. BAR LIBRE posted backto-back 73 Beyers in her last two races, the latest a win at this level, and a similar number puts her right there again. She has enough speed to take advantage of her inside post and she is versatile so Santana doesn’t have to panic if she doesn’t break on top.

NINTH RACE

GRACIAS ADIOS has speed and could take them all the way if she breaks on top with the 10-pound bug riding. She looks very similar to As It Happens who paid $14 for her front-running with Ramsay aboard for his first win Saturday. It was just his fourth mount so he could have a bright future. INTO THE STARS was no match for a runaway winner who came back to finish third in a first-level allowance race at Keeneland, but, she did finish a clear second and figures to move forward in her second start back and just third overall. MOON OF THE NILE has been training forwardly for a trainer who can have them ready to roll first time. BRING JOY is a half-sister to sprint stakes winner Courtside and the past five years Plesa has a 17 percent strike rate with horses debuting in MSW race sprints.