ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, POP THE HOOD

FIRST RACE

LIPSTICKONMYCOLLAR improved immediately upon switching to dirt and she ran well in her first start off the claim for these connections when forced to chase after stumbling at the start; lone NY start came vs. tougher in a race where she was on the outside chasing a winner who was riding a strong rail. ASIAN’S WAY faced some tougher horses after shipping here last summer, including a narrow win at Saratoga; okay effort last time when in some early traffic and still in a bit tight at the top of the stretch, before finishing 2nd best. SPINYATTA hasn’t exactly brought her form, such as it was, to NY, but she does have some speed and like her turning back in this spot. DESERT AFFAIR earned a competitive figure defeating a weak field late time; picks up plenty of checks.

SECOND RACE

HOLLYWOOD CAT sprinted off the layoff and rallied mildly from last in the stretch without threat; stretches out for her second start of the year looking to get back to her improved form from last summer, where she actually ran well to be 3rd to a pair of good horses in a stallion series race. QUESTEQ’s form since being claimed by these connections has not been good, but that first turf start came against better, and she was sent early last time before tiring; has better turf form to get back to. Last time would have been a good time for EMILIANA’S HOPE to clear this condition, and she easily ran well enough to do so while making a wide run and just losing out to a perfectly-ridden winner at the end; good fit here. TIZ R BELLA can clearly win this, but this is a negative drop following a non-effort off the layoff.

THIRD RACE

CHARLONIQUE brought $200k as a 2yo in training without making it to the races, then debuted on grass last month, none of which is good, but she has found what looks to be a weak field for the switch to dirt here, and she did look very green in that turf sprint at Aqueduct; hoping she comes forward with that one out of the way. PRINCESS CHAR did no real running in three starts as a 2yo, but she did get bet in her first couple of starts and she did have some speed; good spot if she can find some improvement off the layoff. MALARKEY beginning for a trainer who is 2 for his last 53 with first-time starters in dirt sprints, but this is a good spot if she can come out running, and she is by a sire who passes on speed. ANAZARA also by an excellent first-out sire, but she is all turf and routing on the dam-side.

FOURTH RACE

ABOUNDING LEGACY has always been a good horse and makes his NY debut while getting some class relief after holding his own vs. some tougher horses in Florida recently; been concentrating in sprinting lately, but he gets the mile. BAD STUDENT wired a field in the slop on relatively short rest two starts back then did it a different way while earning a new top figure first off the claim for a dangerous trainer; one-turn mile should suit him. SHADOW RIDER never wins but he runs every time and this is his distance; needs some pace.

FIFTH RACE

Long layoff obviously a concern regarding INTO THE BREACH but he upped his game when switched to turf for two starts last summer and he ran very well to be second to Rocketry last June in a race where that horse got the jump; Kiaran does have excellent numbers with horses like this: past five years, 180+ day layoff, turf, route 11 for 33, 33%, $3.83 ROI. COURSE CORRECTION got into the clear and closed gamely to just fall short of his experienced stablemate Vegas Kitten in Keeneland debut over soft turf; figures tough with any

improvement as he stretches out. MY DREAM took a good bump and was forced in badly at the start of his sprint debut at Tampa, and he never made a serious run at that race thereafter; bred to stretch out on turf being an Orb out of a dam who is a sister to Man o’ War winner and turf millionaire Imagining.

SIXTH RACE

POP THE HOOD can be maddeningly inconsistent, but when he shows up he is capable of a race that will simply be too fast for these horses, and he actually ran well in his first start of the year despite winding up in an uncomfortable spot down on the rail for the entirety of that race; Arroyo can get more aggressive with him this time, after electing to not contest the pace over that sloppy track last time, which left him in that uncomfortable position. BATTLE STATION has good speed in his own right, which makes him dangerous in this spot if he can find some improvement; win in the Rego Park was more game than anything else, and he got a little lucky there with runnerup Morning Breez hanging on him. BREAKING THE RULES was a winner on debut for Shug, who likely didn’t have him fully cranked for that race; not sure he beat the greatest field in the world there, but he was game to get up after angling over to the rail in the stretch.

SEVENTH RACE

KING OF NEW YORK has to get back to his better form if he is going to be effective in this spot, but he ran two good races when moved over to Belmont turf at this time last year, and while he didn’t run as well in his final two starts of 2017, he got wired by Abiding Star in the first of those, and he had no chance in that last one in a race that was dominated up close; back to turf after a dirt sprint prep in his first start for David Donk. SHALAKO has been holding solid form on the main track lately vs. better, but he is likely a better horse on this surface, where five of his six career wins have come; closer needs a little setup. STRUT N STOMP made his first turf start for this trainer at Fair Grounds in a race that was wired on a slow pace; game finish fell short last time, and he was running some races in Canada last year that would give him a big look. NEOCLASSIC gets back to the Steve Klesaris barn, out of which each of his last two wins have come, both of them over at Belmont for this claiming tag.

EIGHTH RACE

PACIFIC WIND has made only three starts on dirt to date, but she has won two of them with 93 Beyers, and she could hardly have been more impressive than she was in that last one at Keeneland; steps up. HOLIDAY DISGUISE ran well in her two starts over this one-turn mile at Aqueduct upon her return from a long layoff, including the Heavenly Prize where she was way up against it chasing a loose Divine Miss Grey; prefer her going a bit shorter, as was the case in that game Grade 3 win last time. UNCHAINED MELODY jumped up with a big win when loose in the Mother Goose last summer, but her season was over after going wrong in the Grade 1 Alabama and being vanned off; dangerous speed starting back with blinkers on.

NINTH RACE

WEEKEND EXPRESS needs a trip from the far outside post, and he has the speed to perhaps get one, and then he needs to show up with his best effort, which he has managed to do in NY in the past; underrated turf runner is likely to be a square price in this race, which offers many different ways to go. FOX RULES doesn’t run on turf very often, but he is better on this surface, which he proved once again last month when taking a field all the way at Aqueduct with a solid figure; likely to make the lead once again, but this is tougher. SECRETARY AT WAR dropping out of a much tougher spot in the Dangers Hour, where he took a game run at the lead off the turn, and only gave in late in a good effort; probably the horse to beat in this spot, but his edge isn’t very big. SNAP DECISION was a little overrated as a 3yo after two wins with perfect trips, but he can improve as a 4yo, and he can clearly win this second off the layoff.

TENTH RACE

ANDRETTA needs some help to get in, but this would be a good spot for him to break through if he manages to get to run for this $40k tag. CELTIC SERENADE back to turf for this after picking up some checks on the main track without really threatening to win any of his three recent starts on that surface; has run her race on turf, and prefer her over these shorter distances. HEADFIRST has an excuse for her first turf start when hitting the gate at the start, which caused her rider to briefly come out of his left iron then showed more speed in her second start, but was no match for MSW company; starts back on the drop.