ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, SECOND MATE

FIRST RACE

NOBODY KNOWS NOTHIN has run well on the turf at both GPW and here so turf is not a problem. Heck, he even ran well on the dirt two back. Yet he is still a maiden. Perhaps today’s stretch-out does the trick. His dam won 6 of 18 starts when routing. This barn is 25% on the stretch-out. MR STARK ran well in both starts to date and now puts the blinkers ON but that is an 0 for 7 move for this barn. The sample size is small and we will hang our hat on that. Other speed is a problem? Not really as we expect this gelding to stalk even with the equipment change. CRYOGENIC has tried nothing but the turf and just ran a Beyer top. Second time with new barn can’t hurt.

SECOND RACE

BLINGS EXPRESS has speed, the rail, and goes third off the layoff. This gelding can stalk but we think he guns today. This 9YO goes over half million dollars with a W today. LI’L MEATBALL puts races together and is feeling great. Ziadie barn mates can’t duel each other into the ground, can they? A stalking trip like that one two back would seem ideal. PHISH FAN was feeling great going into his most recent but he clipped heels and stumbled which is a killer. He has won twice on this dirt and those Tampa lines will help today’s price. A stalking trip is fine especially if the 5 can press the rail runner.

THIRD RACE

CAN’T TAKE IT WITH YOU is a new turf horse. Turf breeding is good so it makes sense that this gelding just ran a Beyer top. Jock switch to Gaffalione and recent try will make this gelding the one to beat. INDIAN SCHOOL ran evenly off the layoff but cut him some slack as it was his first on this sod. This gelding did break his maiden at Turf Paradise with a 72 Beyer and then followed up with a good try versus optional foes in which he was blocked for part of the race. Any chance he just didn’t like Saratoga and the Meadowlands? A good price to find out. OMENED BY got Beyers of 71 and 72 on this sod not that long ago. Recent tries could not be any worse but he did have some trouble in his

FOURTH RACE

FONTANAZZA is feeling great. Inside posts in her last couple did not hurt at all. She has speed but can stalk if needed. We actually like this outside post. This 4YO is a new dirt horse that isn’t done improving. LIL B QUICK has some speed, comes in fresh, and gets in light. A bullet work for this. ONE BRETHATATIME cuts back a full furlong and escapes stakes foes. She has some speed but so do a few others so early placement might be key. If she does want the front end then drawing between the other speeds could be a problem.

FIFTH RACE

CLASSIC ROCK has run Beyer tops in back to back starts. He is five for six on this dirt but you can see that, right? Works are perfect. What if this colt isn’t done improving? The one to beat. MR ATILA cuts back to an elongated sprint and just ran a Beyer top. He isn’t as quick as top pick so who is going to soften up the speed? Maybe EARLY ENTRY but the long layoff makes things dicey. This colt got a taste of winning three back and something just clicked. Third choice on the tote? CAUTIOUS GIANT did run a 94 Beyer on this dirt only two back. AND it came at today’s distance. Feel good runner will have to win this from off the pace.

SIXTH RACE

RIGEL’S HALO has tried nothing but the turf in her three career starts and we love that. She didn’t get clean trips in her first two starts while most recent was a Beyer top. It is no surprise that Gaffalione lands here. TROPICAL GOLD was a slow starter in her debut but did gain ground down the stretch. She had all kinds of self imposed trouble in her second start. We like the short rest to help figure things out and her most recent does help the price. Turf breeding is solid so let’s see what we have with a clean trip. LEDECKY is knocking on the door at this level. She has some speed and a jock switch to Zayas. New barn is noted.

SEVENTH RACE

MAMINKA has run evenly in a few sprints and that style might play better at a flat mile. This barn is 17% with their routers. Lone sib is 1 for 3 routing and earned 28K. DOMINANT DOLLY did beat over half the field home in her debut. She had some trouble in both recent starts. She cuts back to one turn and tries the dirt which is what we like best. Her turf breeding just isn’t very good so why not an improved try on the dirt. HOT HIPPIE goes second time this distance and does have some upside. This barn is 21% with their route runners.

EIGHTH RACE

KELLY TOUGH stretches-out to two turns and finds a race with little speed. This gelding draws inside, keeps Zayas, and goes for a barn that is 19% with allowance types. MANOLETE gets to save all the early ground. Two turns is a bit of a mystery. Lack of speed hurts. He just ran a Beyer top and goes from a 9% barn to a 22% one. CHEPSTOW wants the front end, right? Timeform pace profile says yes. He has won five times at this distance. What if his most recent was too short? Zayas leaves for our top pick. Any chance that ASTERISK shows some speed with the jock switch? Nobody said this game was easy.

NINTH RACE

PROPER PRINCESS just ran a Beyer top. Turf breeding is actually good so maybe this mare is a slow learner? Late developer? Race flow is average so that doesn’t help any. Penchant for less helps the win price. MISS CAY O’SEA will try and be the speed. Current form is obviously good. Main pace foes draw inside. PASSIONATE GIRL is now 1 for 1 in turf sprints. She draws inside again so no problem there. This barn is 0 for 12 with repeating winners but that sample size isn’t large.

TENTH RACE

SECOND MATE gets good race flow and will be a better price than a few of these. We love this inside post. He was stuck in the 12 hole when last seen on this sod. Works are perfect. It is time for a peak effort. BLUE HARBOR can fire off a layoff. Best effort in the last year came with Vasquez up. Tactical speed comes in handy today but ability to pass runners is paramount. BOLD DADDY is feeling good, has speed, and goes for Pletcher. This colt only cost 180K. Is this your favorite? This is a wide open affair and the best betting race on the card. Enjoy.

ELEVENTH RACE

COSMIC HALO just won first time turf and first time two turns. His upside is better than all. This gelding isn’t done improving for team Pletcher. OX BRO was further off the pace when facing first time winners in his most recent and that can shake a young runner up. Jock switch and class dip make all the difference. FLOWMOTION has some speed and draws inside main pace foes. A small chance that he can clear off early. He did run a Beyer top in his most recent.