ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, FAULT

FIRST RACE

Four of the six entered in this Cal-bred N1X turf route exit the same race, they stretch from a mile to a mile and an eighth. MY AUNT TILLIE is the tepid choice. Runner-up finishing in front of several of these last time, her closing kick suggests the extra distance will be to her benefit. How reliable? Not very. Her last six starts produced one win, four seconds. ALMOST REALITY hit the front too soon last out. She rallied to the lead in midstretch, then lost her punch and finished third. That was only her second start following a layoff of more than one year; this should be her best effort third start back. X S GOLD is likely to set the pace. She went 45-and-change last time and faded. If she can ration her speed more effectively at this longer trip, she could get brave.

SECOND RACE

MOONLIGHT BLUE scored a decisive victory last out in a N2L claiming route; he steps up to meet a small, sketchy field of unrestricted $12.5k claiming veterans. A pace-presser with speed to make his own trip, he is the fastest on numbers. Only five entered, therefore minimal wagering value. HOWDY misfired two straight against tougher company, but his January-February form puts him squarely in the hunt. RPRETTYBOYFLOYD was claimed from a solid runner-up finish in a highly rated $6,250 claiming route; he finished eight lengths clear of third. If able to reproduce that effort while making his first start in two and onehalf months, he could easily win.

THIRD RACE

IRISH CREAM N KAFE is worth chasing one more time. The lightly raced maiden-claiming filly was “live” last out, and she did run better, finishing fourth after producing more gas and improving her speed figure. She drops slightly from maiden30 to maiden-20, is quick enough to make the lead while shortening a half-furlong to six, and could be long gone. YALLA is a 10-start maiden with three successive in-the-money finishes. One of these days, she will find a field she can beat. The knock is she does not seem to be getting any better. STYLIST is a crazy longshot candidate. She flashed improved speed second time out before fading. This is her third start, she is likely to shadow the top choice and possibly get first run if that one fades. Bombs away? ANGEL TEARS makes her second start back from an extended layoff. She also is worth a longshot look.

FOURTH RACE

Although she required nine starts to finally break her maiden, DIVA LA MOUSSE can score right back in this starter allowance turf sprint over the same downhill course. She is drawn outside her main pace rival, figures for another front-running or pressing trip, and can fire right back as one of the more probable winners on the card. However, her pace rival is no slouch. RED SHELBY wheels back two weeks after a sharp front-running score at the same maiden-50 class level that the top choice defeated. RED SHELBY gets a seven-pound weight break and will be rolling up front. AN EDDIE SURPRISE could get an ideal trip positioned third behind the top pair. Her four starts on the downhill produced one win and three seconds.

FIFTH RACE

Runner-up last out for $20k claiming, DEVIL’S BEAUTY returns to the $12.5k claiming level at which she won two back. An eight-time winner, drawn outside, with a versatile running style, she looks rock solid for high-percent trainer Robert Falcone. He is 8-for-24 this year at Santa Anita. TODOS SANTOS pulled up after her saddle slipped last time; her N3L claiming win two back in a route race would put her in the mix. She can sprint, also. She won a N2L here in January by more than four

lengths. DRAGON FLOWER returns from a short freshening of nearly two months; she has won at a higher level than this. PARASAIL drops to a new low.

SIXTH RACE

A modest field of Cal-bred maiden fillies sprint on the hill; PAPRIKA finished second under similar conditions last month. That was not a particularly strong race, however, and it would not take much to upset her. This might be a good spot for a new shooter such as first-time starter VENUE. The latter is a Mineshaft filly whose dam produced four multiple winners. Maidens from this stable typically race their way into condition, but this soft race sure would be the right spot for a first-timer. GARRULOUS GAL should start at a huge price, she is not impossible in the second start of her career. She chased a strong pace and faded in her debut vs. open maidens; she drops into a race restricted to Cal-breds. Bombs away?

SEVENTH RACE

FAULT crushed the G1 Santa Margarita last out in manner that suggests she might become one of the country’s top main-track fillies and mares if she can reproduce that effort in this G3. She gets ideal conditions to do just that. There is plenty of speed for her to run at, FAULT continues to train super, and she has an edge in condition and class over her main rivals. The daughter of Blame can fire again as the most probable winner on the card. VALE DORI was a top-class mare last year when she won the Santa Margarita and this G3, and also gave Stellar Wind fits in successive G1 races in summer. She has been off since July, but comebackers from this outfit typically are ready to fire. MENDED, a former low-level claiming mare, finished second behind the top choice last out and will be pressing or setting the pace.

EIGHTH RACE

ACHIRA missed by a neck in back-to-back turf routes at this N1X level. She shortens from nine furlongs to eight, is drawn inside with a frontrunning/pace-pressing style and seems like she might prefer this shorter distance. Her maiden win three back was racing one mile. QUEEN ANNE’S LACE has upset potential, wheeling back 10 days after a downhill tuneup that sure looked like it was merely a prep. She was a distance filly in the Midwest and Europe. Likely improvement second start back at this longer distance, possibly at a big price. SIBERIAN IRIS finished second three straight at this level. Her closing rally was too late all three. She adds blinkers and might be positioned closer to the lead. SPEAKERS moves up in class after winning a Calbred N1X. Four of the fillies she beat entered in the first race on the card.

NINTH RACE

VEGAS ITCH shortens to seven furlongs after successive runner-up finishes at two turns. Those were his first attempts at this maiden-20 level. He has enough speed to press the pace, and can wear down the speed at this shorter trip. JERRY’S THUNDER is the one to catch. He drops from maiden-40, is quick enough to make the lead, and has a shot to steal it. SURFSIDE SUNSET drops in class, first time at the lowest class level. He will be clunking along late.