ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, SCATSUKU

FIRST RACE

A TRUE GIANT made an impressive debut while showing good speed against a live-looking field, then returned in a Stallion Series race where he was scratched after acting up in the gate at 7:5 odds; bred to get better with distance as a fullbrother to the multiple Grade 2 winner Giant Expectations. PROLETARIAT an infrequent winner but he has been racing in good form since returning from a long layoff as a 6yo; underrated effort while trying to make a wide run to contention around the turn just as the pace of that race was picking up. H MAN has already had his chances at this level several times over, but he is consistent and does own some speed. ARTHUR’S HOPE a bit of a wildcard shipping in from Panama with 8 for 11 record and getting Lasix and blinkers for his stateside debut; not for me but we’ll see how he stacks up with NY-breds.

SECOND RACE

CUMULATIVE ran a couple of good races in his first two starts in NY last fall, and thought he ran well again last time while having to be used early to clear that field from the far outside post; a lot going on in this race, but will take his positional speed from a better draw this time. BIG AGENDA getting the drop after losing four straight close photos at Tampa over the winter, all of them at short prices; has the right running style for this race. MASQUERADER raced on pretty well first time out in a race he likely needed, and he was back to form last time while getting himself caught up in some traffic in the upper-stretch, before finishing gamely to get 2nd; needs a trip. DIPLOMATIC SHAFT back to turf and dropping back down in his second start off the Maker claim; was racing cheaply for his prior trainer on turf, but he did get caught behind a tiring pace-setter two starts back, which cost him his best chance.

THIRD RACE

HOLIDAY DISGUISE scratched from the one-mile Ruffian last weekend to await this spot, which would seem to benefit her from a distance stand- point; she did run well in her two starts over the one-turn mile upon returning from the long layoff, including that Heavenly Prize where she was forced to chase a loose-on-the-lead winner, but she is better going shorter, as she showed last time when gamely closing down the Grade 3 Distaff. SOUNDS DELICIOUS has been sharp for Linda Rice from the start, and she cut the pace in that Distaff before just weakening late while trying seven furlongs for the first time; cuts back a bit and is likely to be going from the rail. Best race of CHALON’s career was arguably her only start over this surface when sharp in the Jersey Girl last summer; returned with a measured score over weaker at Laurel in her first start for new connections.

FOURTH RACE

Linda Rice’s excellence with second-time starting maidens hasn’t translated to turf but her SCATSUKU figures tough in this race if building upon his career debut last month, where he took a game wide run around the turn into a modest pace, and finished gamely through the stretch to just miss 2nd. THROW THE DEUCE failed to stretch out in his second career start last year, but he otherwise ran well in three starts sprinting, including his debut when running late behind the quick Battle Station, and then again in his third start when in against a very impressive winner in No Mo Promises; can improve in his 3yo debut. EVERYONELOVESJAMES also a second-time starter for Linda Rice, and he is switching to turf with some pedigree;

debuted in a loaded-looking race on dirt behind A True Giant (79 Beyer, see Race 1). CON EM doesn’t have much pedigree but he makes his debut for John Terranova who has been strong with firsttime starters in turf sprints lately (past three years, 5 for 10, $24.33 ROI, including a winner at 50/1 here last Saturday). LANCE’S EMPIRE also making his career debut in this spot; second dam was a stakes winner sprinting on turf.

FIFTH RACE

TOMBELAINE exits no-factor run in the Shakertown at Keeneland but won’t go too hard on him for that effort over soft turf and a distance that is too short for him; gets a big trainer change for this, and he is expected to be much more effective over this distance and this Widener course, where he has shown up without fail. AMERICAN GURU stretching again, and the move from six to seven can be a harder one to make than it may appear, but he appears to have plenty of talent based on his first two starts, impressive wins both; facing a much tougher group of horses this time. Unsure about VOODOO SONG turning back in this spot, especially in a field with some other pace signed on, but he has gotten good since switching back to turf and he can step forward with his 2018 debut out of the way.

SIXTH RACE

EXULTING was a good horse to take a chance with last time at that big price, but he still ran well there while finally getting out of the gate with the field, and then contesting the pace with favored Mr. Buff, before getting closed down late by a muchimproved Sir Ballantine; needs to break again, but he shouldn’t have to do the work on the pace this time, and he has finished strongly from off the pace in the past. Didn’t love either of SOUPER CATCH’s last two races, which resulted in his two best figures, though he was fine both times while following up back-to-back blowout wins vs. weaker; good post on the outside for new gelding who has a versatile running style. PATCH just getting started as a 4yo and appears to be training forwardly despite just getting started in midMarch; progressive as a 3yo with his best race coming in the Belmont, though that seemed to be a case of him seeing out that distance better than most. Wanted to like CHRIS AND DAVE more, as he has been facing solid competition at Oaklawn recently, but he is more of a speed-type and is likely to have to improve.

SEVENTH RACE

CLOONTIA offered up off the layoff but he is five now while out of conditions, and he is unlikely to be winning the stakes races for older NY-bred turf routers; ran well off the layoff last year around this time, and he went on from there to hold his own vs. some better horses. DREAM DOCTOR has also fired fresh in the past, and he is actually a little underrated having encountered some troubled trips along the way; he’s okay and he is likely to be a price in this race. ROYAL BLESSING has shown in the past that he can run well in NY and he is shipping back up for the first time since 2014 while in good form; two wins and two very close 2nds while paired with Castellano between 2017 and 2018. CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD owns dangerous speed when he is right, and he showed that he can still run when wiring a field at Gulfstream two starts back; there is some other speed in this race, but he is fastest early if he wants it.

EIGHTH RACE

SKYLER’S SCRAMJET took his shot in the Grade 1 Carter last time and he did not run poorly at all despite proving to be no match for Army Mule’s 114 Beyer explosion in the stretch; form since returning to Michelle Nevin’s barn has been strong and like him getting back to six for this. GREAT STUFF tried turf to no avail on opening day; switches back to the main track, where he has been holding his own on some tougher races, and he may get the setup he needs with the speed of both WESTWOOD and GREEN GRATTO signed on. WESTWOOD career-best 105 Beyer win three starts back was aided by a gold rail, but his overall form since returning from a long layoff has been solid and he may benefit for getting to go six furlongs here, as he has really seemed to struggle late going longer; just has to deal with GREEN GRATTO’s speed from the outside.

NINTH RACE

INFLEXIBILITY seemed one who was better going longer as a 3yo, as she would take a while to unwind before finishing up, but that wasn’t an issue off the layoff when showing more tactical speed from the gate and then easily handling a short field while powering clear in the stretch; Scat Daddy filly still holds more upside as she takes the next logical step. TEAM OF TEAMS has run a couple of sharp races since arriving stateside for top connections. but she has struggled to back her good races up, and she really seems more up against it the longer she goes; looks loose early. MY IMPRESSION faced a couple of Chad’s better ones in her first start back and just went evenly around there without reaching contention; set to step forward with that one out of the way, and she has plenty of back races to be tough in here. Think TRICKY ESCAPE may want a bit more distance, but she is underrated and can kick hard in the stretch; solid effort at a big price when returning in a tough Hillsborough last time.

TENTH RACE

JUST WHISTLE lightly-raced and improving from start-to-start so far, most recently while easily handling maidens with a good trip and a sustained run, which he also displayed in his first start back while second to Hofburg; well-bred colt wants to go all day, while many of his rivals in this Peter Pan have something to prove over this kind of distance. HIGH NORTH got some class relief and prevailed in the Northern Spur last time while taking a wide trip around the track; think he’s talented and like his running style for this race, but he has something to prove as the distances get longer. CORE BELIEFS was never winning the Santa Anita Derby vs. Justify, but guess he did well to be 3rd in that spot as a follow up to his maiden breaker; improver stretching out and he has speed from the rail.

ELEVENTH RACE

SADLER’S JOY came back running off the layoff to close down the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida, and thought he was compromised last time in a race that never came back for the closers; talented closer fires every time, and he may just be the best horse in this race, though he is, as always, dependent upon some pace developing. POSTULATION was ultimately out-finished by a couple of these horses at Aqueduct off the layoff, but he was always on the outside in that race while keeping close to the pace, and he was game while in the mix all the way down to the wire; benefits from the added distance of this race, and he will not be compromised by dynamics. CALL PROVISION has improved with time and distance for Chad and thought he ran well off the bench at Keeneland despite getting a bit headstrong early and then trying to rally along the rail. HI HAPPY sat a nice tracking trip and overpowered ONE GO ALL GO on the lead to take the Pan American ahead of SADLER’S JOY last time; distance no issue and he can fall into another nice trip here.