ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, THE GREEN MO’STER

FIRST RACE

MORE MIA, 17-5-5-3 on turf, is aggressively spotted off the claim for connections known for such placement; consistently performs at a high level when sprinting on the lawn; second-off-a-layoff angle also applies. IGO FORGREATNESS didn’t run to expectations last out and went to the sidelines; switches barns after a break since February and looms a threat with a return to his best; still searching for his first win outside the conditioned claiming ranks. STARSHIP MARS is in the third start of his current form cycle and looms a player if able to somewhat build upon his latest when fourth at this $12,500 class level.

SECOND RACE

WEISSER was soundly beaten in December in a maiden race won by Fountain of Youth winner Strike Power; sidelined since, he shows a steady worktab leading up to his return and the swiftness of those breezes suggests better is on the way. BONTERRA has run Beyers in the 60s in three of five starts. though not last out in finishing a dull third Apr. 21 with a 56 Beyer; had a wide trip that day, but not having much speed, he is the type that is going to experience those kind of journeys. DEXTER showed potential in his first two races with a fourth and a third before being tried going long on the grass and not responding after six furlongs; eligible to bounce back sprinting on dirt.

THIRD RACE

This maiden claimer is a head scratcher...giving the ever-so-slight edge to DEVILISH MAN, who lost his rider last out but had previously been second a start before; still, hard to be overly confident given that all of his other starts resulted in rear-half finishes. DIGITS looms the likely favorite on the class from maiden $35,000 to maiden $10,000. He possesses dangerous speed but will likely be overbet; recent blinkers-on stats unfavorable for the barn. CUCHITO ran well in his only start, finishing second against straight maidens, but that was in August of last year and now his connections think so little of him but to drop him immediately off a layoff.

FOURTH RACE

BUN BUN, a bridesmaid quite frequently, gets a dream opportunity here if she is ever going to clear the nonwinners-of-two hurdle. She is at least in respectable form, which cannot be said of many of her struggling rivals. POWER JAK defeated a nextout winner in breaking her maiden for $12,500 last out, but that was way back on Christmas Eve; fear regression off the that hiatus even for a highpercentage barn. TENDER VALUE faces easier after speed and fades on the lawn. She can handle dirt, too, but by far her fastest races have come when shaken loose from the pack on the turn; not sold that she can do that here.

FIFTH RACE

THE GREEN MO’STER possesses fine maiden grass form, only losing his three turf starts by a combined margin of 5 lengths; favorably drawn on the inside, which should allow him to sit favorable trip right behind the speed. YAWL LYIN was just a length and a quarter behind the top choice when they met Apr. 7, with this colt running fifth after pressing the pace, and THE GREEN MO’STER finishing second. YAWL LYIN could move forward following and experience, particularly if able to poke his head in front at some stage. KING ORB was surprisingly cold on the odds board Apr. 7, going off at 24-1 odds for Pletcher, but ran pretty well to be sixth after being slow into stride; doubtful he is dismissed yet again.

SIXTH RACE

MIDNIGHT SOIREE seems more talented than a quick look at her form would suggest. She ran a

close fourth against open allowance company on this course in January, and her two losses since came against far better in dirt sprints; capable with the drop into a Florida-bred one other-than. BITACORA owns the best form and figures in the race, but as a late runner with a tendency to finish second, she seems likely to be an overbet win proposition. TWO STEP

BLUES is another with a slew of minor awards. Although second is her most common finishing position, last time she settled for third, a halflength behind BITACORA - though perhaps this one was a little short after two months away.

SEVENTH RACE

NACHO PAPA has trained swiftly leading up to her unveiling. She has a bullet and two nearbullets in three works over this track since coming off the farm. CAJUN EMBERS has the benefit of a race, finishing a distant second Apr. 27. Blinkers get added after she lugged in down the lane. LOUDON’S SONG enters her debut off a pair of published works, one quick on a fast track, the other slow over a muddy strip; is a homebred from Jacks or Better Farm, an owner whose horses have long fared well in Florida in early-season juvenile contests.

EIGHTH RACE

STAR JUANCHO is an honest performer, a colt that has hit the board in six of eight starts, including last out when running third with an 85 Beyer. He is the only horse in the race to have run a Beyer of 80 or higher, and he’s done it twice, with the other race coming three starts ago. SILENT TIGER may have a chance to crash the gimmicks at a price. He should appreciate being dropped from stakes company, and he’s run a few nice races, most notably when second in ab open first-level allowance here back in January. DUNK acts among the most talented in the field, though he is disadvantaged by not having raced since September; sharp works, though barn is 0 for its last 12 with 180+ day comebackers.

NINTH RACE

MOONLIGHT BANDIT appeared outclassed May 5 when facing $12,500 claimers on the lawn, and his task was made all the more challenging when he drew post 12. He was beaten soundly, losing by 20 lengths, but looks like he should fare much better here against $6,250 claimers on the main track. BROWNS GAP figures to go favored after winning two straight at this class level; rolls if he reproduces his latest, when dominated with a 76 Beyer, but regression looks possible; connections seem to be daring someone to claim him by not stepping him up in price.

SHIP DISTURBER has been dull in his last two, but he was bumped early in one start, and failed to keep up early in the other when sprinting; better suited to this longer race.

TENTH RACE

NONNO NINO has respectable maiden claiming form in short turf routes, with two seconds and a third from five such races; nice draw in post three. GOING TO THE BEACH came close to winning Apr. 28 in a race moved to the main track, losing by a neck in what was the best dirt performance of his life; faster on turf; 1 1/2 lengths behind the top choice when they met in a race back in February - though this experienced some traffic issues. TWO STEPS TO TOGA pressed the pace before fading to seventh against much classier in his lone start, but a lengthy layoff followed that race, and now he is dropped sharply by his connections before they even see a return from him.

ELEVENTH RAnCEd

MR. JORDAN faced much better stakes foes than these over the winter and early spring here, and aside from his latest, when beaten 18 lengths, he was competitive in those starts; edge in a tricky race in which most of the contenders have drawbacks of one type or another. In the case of THREE RULES, it is that he hasn’t started since December. Still, he is 6 for 9 over this surface - a record that includes numerous stakes victories. QUIJOTE and KROY are Midwest Thoroughbred representatives that bring different credentials to this stake. QUIJOTE is experienced main tracker, while KROY is the sharper and more talented runner, though he gives the appearance of preferring turf over dirt.

TWELFTH RACE

MISS CASUARINA gets back to sprinting on dirt in the nightcap following a turf failure when routing; not a blinkers-on fan - believing the angle to be often overbet - but this one is still the choice based on what she has done in two starts on dirt compared to the form of others. DIVINE DIVA managed a third in her last start, though it was just a so-so race. It was a short field of seven and she lost by 11 lengths. JUBILANT was eased as the favorite in her latest, but fits if her connections have her straightened out for this race a month later; forgive her latest and her other maiden-claiming starts on dirt suggest she is in the mix.