ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, CRIMSON HAYES

FIRST RACE

PAULITA came from off the pace to just miss in a promising turf debut at Tampa but she could be on the lead in this opener, which is a little light on pace; expecting jockey Joe Bravo to have her involved from the start. SMASHING SERENA is clearly dangerous off that last Beyer but she also ran well in defeat in her prior two tries on the green; another who figures to benefit from a forward trip. HIGHLAND LADY has steady figures and a hint of early zip, a combination that makes her dangerous given the expected race flow.

SECOND RACE

NICE SURPRISE won each of his last two starts, at Parx, and though he’ll be looking to close here he should get ample pace to chase; clearly in good form off those last few. SMART RUSSIAN took advantage of a lack of pace and a loose lead in that last one but he can also rate if need be; may fall into an ideal trip. INFLUENCE was off the board in his sprint prep off the layoff but he has license to make a big move forward as he stretches out to his preferred distance; another who would appreciate a quick, contested pace, courtesy of SMART AND TOUGH, WE B JAMMIN and NICHE, and perhaps others.

THIRD RACE

RITHM BOX makes her first start for a tag off a long layoff, which can certainly be viewed as a negative, but she meets a seemingly sub-par field, and she could be the main speed; big threat if loose. SLIGHTLY TIPSY has the early zip to stay close, and she may in fact get first run at the top pick; note the barn’s record with horses moving from turf to dirt. L. A. WAY had little chance to close in that debut run at Keeneland, a race controlled by the frontrunners; would be the top pick in this sprint if there were just a little more obvious speed in this field.

FOURTH RACE

FIELD ADVANTAGE is kin to three winners, including Lovely as Ever, who won her own career debut; trainer Mario Serey Jr. has had a lot of success here over the years with maiden claimers. SALINGER merits respect on the strength of that last figure, earned at Parx; dangerous if he’s able to run back to that figure in his 2nd start off the short rest. SWIPING DAN faded when last seen but he’s the one to fear back at six furlongs, as the Beyers he’s posted at this distance put him right in the middle of this.

FIFTH RACE

CRIMSON HAYES has been first or second in each of his last three starts and he’s going to be a handful here as the potential clear speed in this apparently otherwise paceless race; sharp work since the last try. LIQUID ALOHA has the speed to stay close, an edge if the fractions are in fact controlled; steady Beyers add to the appeal. SINATRA is down in class and the one to beat thanks to the solid, consistent Beyers he posted prior to the break; main danger in the lane.

SIXTH RACE

GROOVY TALE is kin to a couple of winners in Mello Groove and Stylish Notion, and his work tab suggests that he has some speed; not wild about

the rail draw for inexperienced runners but with a clean getaway he should be expected to be a threat in his debut. WAR TALES looks best of those who have run; this is his first start for a tag, and the Beyers he posted in his first two starts very much make him the one to beat. SATURDAYNITEAFFAIR figures to flash some speed off the bench; could get brave if able to get clear easily enough in the early stages.

SEVENTH RACE

SALEM LOOP made a big run off the turn to score convincingly at Penn in his latest; he was off the board in his prior try but he was squarely against the race flow there, with closers up against it behind a controlled pace. BRAVE REQUEST was caught up in a race-long duel in his latest but he proved two back and in the maiden score that he can rate and make one run if need be; that versatility gives Gallardo some options here. MY UNCLE AL stretches out and figures to be a factor from the start; may help set things up for the top pick, his entrymate.

EIGHTH RACE

NATIONAL HONOR gets back on the grass, and the Beyers he’s posted in his four starts on both surfaces clearly suggest he prefers this surface; he’s never been in for a tag this light and he doesn’t seem to meet an above-average field for the class level. MANDEL is a first time gelding, and he’s got room to improve off already decent turf form; tactical speed should lead to a favorable trip just off the leaders. CHICHMEISTER was bumped at the start in his only other start over this course and that cost him position in a race with several others with speed; makes his return carrying some decent works.

NINTH RACE

LELA’S GIFT gets back on the main track, and it was on dirt that she broke her maiden, at Churchill, where she also posted a career-best Beyer; adds blinkers but will likely need to rate here, as there are several speeds to her outside. SPRING FOR MORE was overmatched against stakes company at Aqueduct last time out but she has to be considered a threat on the strength of the figure she posted two back; would benefit from a lively tempo up front. JUMP RULER is the one to catch for trainer Kelly Breen; wouldn’t be a real surprise but she has stopped on loose leads in the past and this is her first start around two turns.

TENTH RACE

HE’S GOT TALENT looms a short price for perennial leading trainer Jorge Navarro and beating him won’t be easy at this reduced level, as he has an edge in figures as well as a possible pace advantage; obvious credentials to steal this. BLUE Y GOLD will be going well late as he makes his first start of the season for trainer J. Willard Thompson; solid try for 2nd in his seasonal bow last year, when 2nd in the Wolf Hill Stakes. CREATE A WINDSTORM has the speed to stay close, an edge if the top pick sets a controlled pace from the start; not a viable threat to beat that one but perhaps a contender for bottom of exotics given the right trip/set up.

ELEVENTH RACE

MISS INCLUSIVE has good early zip but she can also rate, and that should enable her to work out a trip regardless of how this race shapes up in terms of pace; has some good back Beyers, and she’s better than she showed when in against better last time and in a sprint two back. IN THE NAVY NOW closed nicely for the show in a two-turn sprint at Charles Town when last seen; may be the one they have to stave off in the lane. BERNED comes out of graded stakes and is a threat against this softer field; stretches out but she won going two turns here last season.

TWELFTH RACE

DIG DEEPER certainly moved was up when switched to the grass in her second career start, and the resulting Beyer gives her strong credibility; she was rank when rated early on in that last one but she may be asked to set the pace against a short field in this finale, which lacks an obvious race flow. TAPIT TODAY was off the board in her debut last time but she hardly ran a poor race, and the resulting Beyer makes her a clear threat with these; connections another big plus. LADY OXBOW has a couple of decent works showing for her debut, and she figures to be overlooked some in the wagering; she’s a half to Feed Me Carats, a three-time winner on the green.