ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MCKALE

FIRST RACE

AVALANCHE finished second last out in a similar N1X turf mile, but he ran well enough to win. He missed by a half-length after a 22.90-second final quarter, good enough to win most races at this level. AVALANCHE improved each successive start since last fall. He is solid. Favorites this meet won 7 of the first 14 turf miles. TEMPLE KEYS upset a restricted $32k claiming turf mile last out. Although he lost nine previous starts at this class level, he has run moderately fast numbers and finished close enough to warrant respect right back. CATS BLAME is 2-for-2 since being gelded. He stretches out from sprints first start off the claim and has an upset chance with a frontrunning or pace-pressing trip. FASHION BUSINESS showed promise last summer against 3yos including a runner-up finish in the G3 La Jolla. This is his first start since September. He posted good figs last year.

SECOND RACE

FOXY FRESH was claimed last month from a decisive win at this $8k claiming level; she runs back at the same level first start off the claim. The cutback to five and one-half furlongs is ideal; she does have speed. CORONADO COOL plummets four levels from $20k claiming. Not a positive pattern, obviously, but cannot discount her recent winning habit. She won two of her last four starts, vs. N2L and N3L claiming rivals. IRISH DAME wheels back six days after a last-place comeback at a higher level. She won four races last year including a big win at Del Mar at this level and distance. MAMA’S SECRETSTORM is a seven-win veteran (six vs. Thoroughbreds) shipping up the freeway from Los Alamitos.

THIRD RACE

Choices are slim in this modest maiden route. Two main contenders are stretching out from a sprint, another main contender is a five-start maiden. The tepid call is five-start maiden DRAFT PICK. He has something his rivals lack, which is experience around two turns. His most recent effort was his best yet, fourth in a race that produced two next-out maiden winners including Longden, and a next-out third in the Santa Anita Derby by Core Beliefs. First start in two months, DRAFT PICK is the lukewarm choice. AURORA D’ORO was wellbacked into his sprint debut off a string of flashy drills, but finished off the board after he engaged in a multi-horse speed duel. The fractions will be slower in this two-turn race, ‘D’ORO might be the one to catch. VICTORY ELEMENT will be one of the favorites off a good runner-up debut. Tough to stretch out following just a single sprint, although Bob Baffert is 8-for-16 with maiden favorites running long second time out.

FOURTH RACE

In the money four straight at this Cal-bred N1X level, SIX POINT RACK stretches out to the mile and one-eighth distance of his career-best effort. That was a runner-up finish two back. The only knock this time is price. His odds could be short. LYMEBYRD finished second last out at this level, three lengths clear of third. It is unclear if he really wants to run this far, but he does figure for a comfortable trip positioned second behind likely pacesetter CALVERT STREET. The latter stretches out and drops in class from an open $20k claiming turf sprint into a state-bred optional claiming turf route. He appears to be the speed of the field, though he faces a challenging course profile because 6 of the 7 turf routes this meet at this distance were won from the back of the field.

FIFTH RACE

MCKALE lost to stablemate ZULFIKHAR last out in a N1X, but the tables are likely to be turned in this G3 sprint for 3yos. MCKALE is the pace of the race, speed has been good lately at seven furlongs, and the lightly raced colt’s work pattern since raced is solid. None of the pace rivals that MCKALE dueled with last time entered back in this race. Color him long gone as the most probable winner on the card. However, his stablemate ZULFIKHAR is no slouch. He rallied wide from the back to upset the top choice last time and is now 2-for-2 in sprints.

The stretch-out from six and one-half furlongs to seven is fine. Look for him late. KANTHAKA finally is back doing what he does best. That is, run one turn. After his impressive February win in the G2 San Vicente at 7 furlongs, he faltered in a pair of Derby-prep routes. He returns to one turn, and will motor late.

SIXTH RACE

Back to back for RONALD R? His win last month in a $40k claiming turf race at Golden Gate was validated when the fourth- and sixth-place finishers returned to win. RONALD R meets a fairly ordinary bunch of N1X/optional $40k claiming rivals in his return to Santa Anita; he earned his best U.S. figure (87 Beyer) the one time he ran long on this “firm” course. That fifth-place finish in a N2X would probably be good enough for this. Stick with the sharp horse from a stable with momentum. LUCKY BRYAN was away from the races for a year and a half prior to his okay fifthplace comeback. He was a promising 3yo in 2016; he has a history of improving second start back. CONQUEST TYPHOON finished second in the race ‘BRYAN exits. The tactical speed of ‘TYPHOON means he will be out of trouble and get first run. No surprise if he actually starts favored.

SEVENTH RACE

AWESOME E K might be a standout in this drab maiden-20 sprint. He pushed a legitimate pace last time and finished a close fourth. The runnerup returned to win; the winner returned to finish a creditable third. AWESOME K is quick enough to make the lead. All things being equal, he should be gone. TROJAN TIME finished in the money 3 of 5 starts including an okay third last out in a slow race. His “trouble” was not a factor; he was being outrun when he steadied. He has enough early run to keep the top choice in his sights. He might be the first to pounce if the leader tires. DOWNSIDE UP is a 17-start maiden that missed by a head last out while finishing five clear of third. Someday.

EIGHTH RACE

MOONSHINE MEMORIES was among the top 2yo fillies in the country last season, winning a pair of G1s before tiring to seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Freshened since, training well, supplemented to this stakes race, and returning at what might be her preferred distance (sprint), she should come back firing. Lots of speed in this race, but not much late speed. ‘MEMORIES is the class of the field, expected to run well first off the bench. THIRTEEN SQUARED drops to a non-graded stakes and shortens in distance after facing top company (G1 winner Midnight Bisou, G1 winner Dream Tree) her last three starts around two turns. One turn probably will be her best trip. UPPERCUT dueled and tired in a G3 at Keeneland that was only her second start. She benefits by a return to the Santa Anita track on which she scored a highly maiden win two starts back. SHOW IT N MOE IT is speed on the rail, while longshot Turf Paradise shipper FILM ACTRESS is the only legitimate late-runner in this speed-filled field. A stakes winner in Arizona, she goes route to sprint and will roll from the back of the field at a big price.

NINTH RACE

Difficult turf sprint for maiden fillies ends the card, dirt-to-turf WHAT’S BRUIN gets the call based on her solid runner-up try last out in which she finished nearly three lengths clear of third. Sired by Curlin, she is a sibling to turf stakes winner Bear Access and dirt stakes winner Access Charlie, who won a maiden race on turf. The point is, grass should be okay for WHAT’S BRUIN. Her current form is sharp. TOKEN VOW rallied from next-to-last to finish third in a respectable career debut over this downhill course. With a race under her belt, improvement is expected. UNCHAINING MELODY also finished well for third while making her U.S. debut. Upside potential. JOURNAL ENTRY is a first-time starter by Uncle Mo, which means grass should be fine. Also, progeny of Uncle Mo do well first time out.