ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

MR. FIXIT steps up following easy win over two-life claimers in his 3yo debut to go two-for-three, but this race didn’t come up as strong as it could have and, as opposed to his main rivals, we have yet to see the best of MR. FIXIT; rail draw complicates things a bit, but he can go with these with slight improvement. THE CARETAKER dropping after doing his best but failing to clear his NY-bred 1x condition after getting back into form following a layoff; benefits if the two drawn inside hook up early. DATA DRIVEN has run the fastest races in this field to date, and he goes well fresh having won his career debut as well as his first start back from an 11-month layoff back in 2016; good spot for his return but that is a long layoff to overcome. WRONG BEN has speed and an inside post, and if nothing else it was nice to see him finally come close to backing up his sharp debut win last time, even if he did have to work hard to do it after getting a clear early lead.

SECOND RACE

OUR AMERICAN STAR had had the most chances in this maiden claimer for NY-breds, but he has run some competitive races along the way and he was unlucky in his first start of the year when getting no help from his 5 lb. bug rider in a race he easily could have won, which remains his only start sprinting on fast dirt this year; one more chance at a price cutting back. THERE GOES JOSE landed in a pretty tough field first time out and couldn’t keep up with those horses after actually getting off to a good start in the race; has been gelded since that race for Diodoro, who has done well with similar horses in the past (MSW-to-MCL drop, second start, dirt sprints: 4 for 13, 31%, $6.29 ROI). GUY AMERICAN DREAM took the race to heavily-favored Three Goals and dueled him all through the stretch before coming up just short in a four-horse photo when switched from turf to dirt last time; BAREFOOT ANGEL got up for 2nd there, but thought GUY AMERICAN DREAM ran the better race while doing more work, and he also ran well in his prior dirt start for a tag when contesting a fast pace in a race that went to closers. IRISH MARAUDER has a bit of a wildcard look to him as he returns from a long layoff and can be used, but would want a price on him.

THIRD RACE

ENGAGE faced a pretty tall order going seven in the Grade 3 Bay Shore off the layoff, and he bumped hard at the start of that race before winding up down toward the inside in the stretch, which wasn’t the place to be on Wood Day, before prevailing for 2nd; hope to see a sharper version second off the layoff in a race where his main rivals are all speeds. FORCED has finished first in both starts to date, and neither of those races was in doubt once he used his ample early speed to clear off on the lead (he was disqualified for causing interference at the start last time, though he was never losing that race); Lasix goes on as he tries stakes company in NY for a good trainer. I’M AN OCALA DUDE has started to find himself lately while posting back-to-back blowout wins and then following those up with a respectable 4th place finish in the Bay Shore; unlike the other main contenders in here outside ENGAGE, he is not a speed.

FOURTH RACE

OKEAMO was off slowly and falling out of contention around the turn in his career debut, which came sprinting over a sloppy track, before appearing to be racing on again in the late stages if that race; returns from a short layoff to make his second start with Lasix and blinkers on, and he is bred to stretch out as a half to the Grade 2-winning dirt router Re capture the glory, who earned over $550k in his career. LOCAL COUNSEL goes long in his debut for a capable first-out trainer; Union Rags colt is a half to two stakes winners from this dam, who went on to become a stakes winner herself after winning the first five starts of her career, including three routes. SANTO ANTO-

to the bottom for the second start of her career. Improvement seems likely, yet the severe drop second out seems rather abrupt. Comeback filly

CHEYENNE DANCER has speed and looms a threat on the front end. DEE WAY TO GO is a 10-start maiden with early speed and okay figures.

SIXTH RACE

Maiden-30 colts and geldings go a mile on dirt; JUMP THE TRACKS returns to the surface and distance on which he ran the best race of his career two starts back. That was a third-place finish with a figure (66 Beyer) appropriate for this level. MIDNIGHT SOOT stretches back out following a creditable third-place sprint comeback. The gray could vie for favoritism based on his comeback, and respectable fall/winter efforts vs. good company including Instilled Regard (fourth in Kentucky Derby) and Peace (graded stakes placed). IT’S A NEW YEAR is back with maidens after giving turf a shot in a starter allowance vs. winners. He has speed, this is the lowest class level he has tried. WRITE ME A SONG missed by only a neck last out under these same conditions. He finished more than four lengths clear of third.

SEVENTH RACE

The Sunday feature race is a deep, interesting N2X turf route in which lightly raced BEACH VIEW and LIFELINE are leading contenders in a race with many contenders. BEACH VIEW finished a commendable fourth last month in a mile race that was his first start since last spring. He benefits from the stretch to a mile and one-eighth; his best races last year were at a mile and one-quarter and beyond. LIFELINE backed up as the favorite last time in a similar N2X; his N1X victory two back was decent enough. The well-bred colt (sire Tapit, dam BC Distaff winner Life Is Sweet) has raced only five times, so he might improve. MR. ROARY has been in tough spots most of the past year; eight of his last nine races were in graded stakes. The last time he raced at this N2X level, he led gate to wire over this turf course. Entered for the optional $62.5k claim tag, he is good enough for this cast. FABOZZI is a miler with respectable recent figures. The uncertainty is distance. It is unclear if he can stay a mile and one-eighth.

EIGHTH RACE

This $6,250 claiming mile is the first career dirt route for veteran 7yo gelding CHROMIUM, so it is unknown if he can get the trip. His current form also is unclear; he finished ninth of 12 last out. The positives are his winter speed figures in sprints were okay, his rivals in this bottom-rung claiming race are bleak, and he gets in light with a sevenpound apprentice rider. Bottom line, CHROMIUM can spring an upset. AWE was claimed last out by Genaro Vallejo, who is 5-for-12 f.o.c. since fall and 3-fo-3 f.o.c. the past three weeks. AWE was gelded after being claimed; his best figures the past few months are good enough. HACKLETON “won” a similar low-level claiming race at 15-1 odds but was disqualified and placed second. He fits if he can run two alike. SAINT DERMOT plummets in class from $18-20k claiming. nd Tough race to decipher.

NINTH RACE

The racing week ends with the most probable winner on the card. IMPRESSION finished in the money seven straight, mostly in maiden-claiming turf routes such as this maiden-50 turf mile. Therefore, he might be considered tough to trust. On the other hand, he is simply the fastest in the field based on numbers, he has been freshened nearly two months by a high-percent trainer Bill Morey, and he has a versatile style that should lead to a cozy trip behind the pace that is likely to be set by KOPITAR. The latter stretches to two turns after setting the pace and tiring in sprints. The speed of the field, with a seven-pound apprentice aboard, he has a shot to wire the field. Or, he could fade again. STARTING BLOC returns from a layoff and drops to maiden-claiming first start back. AMAZON CRY is an eight-start maiden that will rally late.