ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, J C’S PROUD KITTEN

FIRST RACE

X Y RUNNER broke his maiden when on the lead in a paceless race but he showed in his latest that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead, as he sat off the speeds and made a late bid; that versatility should mean he works out a favorable, forward trip in this opener, which lacks a clear pace scenario. CLEVER CALIBAN, on the other hand, is a stone closer who is reliant on pace; the good news is he could get honest splits here, and he does have competitive figures. JERSEY JOE B needs the lead and will be looking to steal this in his seasonal debut.

SECOND RACE

NIGEL’S DESTINY rises and switches from turf to dirt off the Jeremiah Englehart claim and this does seem to be his preferred surface; he was on the lead in each of his last two but he may be at his best when he’s able to take back and make one run. AZTEC SENSE seeks his third straight for trainer Jorge Navarro, and he’s the one to beat off those last two figures; if he’s able to run to those Beyers he’s going to be a handful at a short price. CHUNNEL, also from Navarro, is always tough at Monmouth; scored when paired with Ferrer here last year, albeit over the turf.

THIRD RACE

NO MORE MUSIC made a decent late run in his first start off the short break, and he galloped out strongly past the wire; hoping he gets enough pace help to set him up for the last run here. BE A HERO certainly looks like the main speed in this sprint, which seems to be a little light on pace; very dangerous despite the class rise, especially if he is in fact able to shake loose in the opening stages. DUKE OF DENVER was off the board when last seen but he had legit excuses, including the longer distance and the fact it was his 2nd start off the layoff, as he may have regressed; needs to stay close from the start.

FOURTH RACE

CLASSI CAT is a complete and unmitigated guess in a most puzzling maiden claimer; he was against the race flow in his only two route tries to date and he should get at least some help from the frontrunners today. PORT ARCH is the one to beat, and the most likely winner, on the strength of his Beyers and this drop in class; would be no surprise, almost assuredly at a very short price. GUARICHONGO ships up from Gulfstream and may find the locals more his speed.

FIFTH RACE

AUTOBAHN EXPRESS sports a couple of breezes which hint he may show some run in his first start; kin to a minor winner, and her sire, Macho Uno, won his own career debut. HOMEFIELDADVANTAGE is the first starter out of the dam, Proud Pearl, who was 2nd in the 2012 Monmouth Oaks over this strip; jockey/trainer combination ensures a short price but this filly has to be strongly considered regardless. BOLD RATE is kin to four winners, and two of them won their first career starts; decent works showing, and she could offer some value against the Chad Brown firster.

SIXTH RACE

INDIAN GUIDE will be looking to make the last run here, as he’s at his best when able to take back off the pace, and he should get ample pace help; drops below the level of the claim in only his second start for the barn but Navarro of course wins with this move at a high rate. ONEBALLNOSTRIKES is another who could benefit from a lively tempo, though he does have the speed to get position early on; trainer John Servis always tough here. ROAMING UNION should be a factor from the start, though he will need to avoid a duel with runners like GAMBLER’S GHOST and AWESOME

THOUGHT; part of an entry with INCUBATOR.

SEVENTH RACE

Thought BEN OF THE BRIDGE was moving well enough through the back of the field in her first start of the meet last time, a race that was a little light on speed; has license to improve upon that race given a better pace scenario this afternoon. DANGEROUS WOMAN could be tough to reel in if she is able to shake loose easily enough, and she does appear to be the primary speed in this field; filly meets males here but she would still be the top pick based on the apparent pace edge if she had run better in her seasonal bow last year. TERRY’S CHARM returns off a short freshening for Navarro, who does well with runners off this type of intermediate layoff.

EIGHTH RACE

INDIAN CHASER could be the main speed here, a big edge given the relative lack of pace in this field; she was in a duel in her latest and against the race flow in other starts, but in a race lacking pace three back she was a game 2nd. SWEET REEF has the tactical speed to stay close and that should be an edge if the fractions are in fact mild; most recent try resulted in her best figure of the year. OH MY DAR is another who should enjoy a forward trip; Beyers are a little light but she has license to improve today with the right kind of trip.

NINTH RACE

J C’S PROUD KITTEN was well off the board when last seen but that was a dirt race, and she clearly prefers the grass, and she stumbled badly at the start; returns to the turf here and she catches a seemingly below average group for the class level. ROYAL CASHMERE faced better in her return from the freshening and in her last couple of starts in Jersey in 2017; she ran well at this level in prior tries and she should be seriously considered here if she’s able to scratch in off the Also Eligible list. BABY ISABELLA ran a big race in her first start back from a break last time, which either indicates she’s an improved filly or she caught a soft field, or a combination of the two theories; either way, she merits respect off that Beyer.

TENTH RACE

ACT NOW was a sharp winner in her debut but while she was far back in her first start against winners she had no chance there after a slow start forced her to rush up into a contested pace; with a clean break she should be very tough here, and she could in fact be the controlling speed. STARSHIP REINA will have something to say about that, as she also likes to be on the front end; she can also rate a bit, and could be part of a two-speed exacta with the top pick if they can avoid a racelong duel. MONEY OR LOVE was overmatched in the Hurricane Bertie but has to be viewed as one of the top contenders here on the class drop.

ELEVENTH RACE

BANK ELABORATION broke her maiden in her latest with a run from just off the pace but she could find herself on the lead in this seemingly paceless finale; looms tough here if she is able to replicate that last Beyer. SASSY SILK makes her first start of the season but lands in an apparently good spot, as she has some early zip, and she should get a forward trip prompting a controlled pace. MARKET TALES draws inside, and while she was well off the early pace last time she has proven in the past that she can stay close if need be.