ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, WHERE’S DOMINIC

FIRST RACE

No way as of right now (Friday) to know if the trend holds through the weekend, but the PIM main track rail really seemed dead during Thursday’s opening card, and handicapping today reflects that observation. T SIZZLE is drawn on the fence but will try and rally from off the pace - hopefully while off the rail. His 7f try for twice this price two back encourages. OFF ROAD probably maxed out last time, and not expecting anything better than that, but the race shape could work for him. DIONYSUS for the second start in a row is lowered in claiming price after a win. Part of the pace.

SECOND RACE

Main-track-only HICKORY HILL was in a $10K conditioned claimer about 15 months ago, which makes the considerable class drop for first start of 2018 somewhat easier to take. Never worse than second at the abbreviated trip and won lone previous PIM try. FLIGHT CREW’s suitability to the spot obscured by a long string of races (dirt, turf route) not entirely relevant to the task at hand. A year ago he was a solid N1X allowance winner turf-sprinting on the PIM course. ROMAN OFFICER breaks from fence and probably has little choice but to use his speed. Wired a PEN $25K / N2X turf sprint in his most recent grass start, but might struggle to shake off the other pace.

THIRD RACE

PUNCH NEPHEW has a win and a third from his two starts since falling to class levels this low, and he’d look like a contender here without even considering he’ll get the right trip if the track still is favoring outside stalkers and closers. PAPACHO followed home the top pick when fourth in a similar spot March 31 and might’ve “needed” that first race after a two-month break. RAVEN RUSH has a long history of stretch fades but mainly has met higher-class rivals, and shows a fast recent workout, FWIW.

FOURTH RACE

HEY MABEL’s lone turf try among five starts jumps off her past performances. She was beaten less than three lengths while fourth of a dozen and got her final furlong in less than 12 seconds. Figures to improve back on preferred surface while making second start after a layoff. ANIMALISTIC could be the right one for dirt based on her solid debut last out in a 7f KEE race, but connections that claimed her from that start waste no time switching to grass, a surface she’s bred to handle. MISS IMPAZIBLE’s only turf try hints she’s a better horse on grass, though she seems a little suspect racing farther than one mile.

FIFTH RACE

TEQUILA HERO has three second-place finishes in his last three two-turn starts, and he’s back here in a true route. Wide rally starting at 3f pole would put him in the right flow if the outside-favoring nature of the main track persists from Thursday. Barn change for RING NECKED, who has been facing higher-class foes for years if not for his entire career. Might wake up. MID OCEAN been nibbling on the edges in similar spots and hard to see him going much better back on just 10 days rest.

SIXTH RACE

Yes, WHERE’S DOMINIC is dropped here for half the recent claim price as well as half what was paid five starts ago. But the purse for this $7.5K claimer is a healthy $18K, and surely connections are eager to get something back after four poor dirt runs since the claim. Horse had raced only on turf or synthetic recently before move to dirt, and he clearly didn’t like that. Return to his standard 2017 turf-sprint form makes him a major player.

GAELIC MAN ran all right in a previous PIM maintrack start, likes short sprints, and even with some main-track-only entrants, he could be the right one in the event of a rain-off. POLITICAL FARCE had gotten in a comeback run when he won at this level turf-sprinting over the PIM course about this time last year. This time around he’s first out after a winter and spring break.

SEVENTH RACE

PISTOL POSSE is a very modest 7-0-0-3 on wet dirt tracks, so take that last-out muddy surface performance accordingly. The recent run was his first back with the barn in which he thrived last season, and a return to his better 2017 form probably wins this. Tactically versatile, trains daily over the local surface. Guessing based on longer-term history that the steep drop for SILVER COWBOY is more negative than aggressive. Which is not to say he can’t still produce a competitive run back on dirt following a failed turf experiment. THE IRON BANK a prototypical “runs along for a share” sort of horse.

EIGHTH RACE

The running line at press time for ADVERSARY’s last start is incorrect, as he was never 23 lengths behind in that race. The trouble line is accurate though, and he did finish well for a close fifth facing stronger foes than this for a $20K claiming tag. Barely exposed at all on turf with just the two recent runs, and there could be more to come there. PUTURSEATBELTON has won his last four turf sprints and is 4-2-0 from his last six - which is hard to fault. Also 2-2 over the PIM course, and it’ll be surprising if he’s not in the mix. MODERN

MEDICINE gets over grass decently but is the top pick here for dirt.

NINTH RACE

MAYA MALIBU figures second choice behind favored MO SMART and seems like a better bet. Back out to two turns and lone prior true route came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Blinkers off could be a meaningful move here, and she might get the run of the race. A little surprising to see sharp GP debut winner MO SMART running in MD rather than NYC for TAP, and it has taken her a bit of time just to make her second start. Could get hooked into a strong pace at a short price. EMMA’ S DIAMOND DIVA could clunk along pasta couple tiring rivals to get into the trifecta.

TENTH RACE

Not going to get too enthused over PENDRELL MOON, who was bred to be a “good” horse and is down to $16K maiden-claiming nd in his third start, but Lasix and move to turf in second start produced a $35K MCL run that itself would probably win this, and there’s a decent chance he could go a little better here with blinkers on, more work, and that previous grass try behind him. ZEKE THE STREAK should have a chance to lead all the way if this race is rained onto dirt (and if the rider keeps him clear of the inside path, provided the rail remains poor). ZAPTUIT has had his chances, drawn wide, unappealing price, probably.