ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, IMPRESSION

FIRST RACE

Freshened nearly two months and returning to preferred footing (grass), BIG SKY LOGAN is the one to beat in a turf mile that is the first of five maiden-claiming races on the nine-race Sunday card. The two best performances by ‘LOGAN were runner-up finishes returning from layoffs; trainer Vladimir Cerin and jockey Edwin Maldonado are 7-for-11 together since November. TEQUILA BLANCO followed his maiden-20 runner-up debut with a runner-up effort in a maiden-50 turf sprint. Combine the two elements (route and grass), and ‘BLANCO enters as a legit contender. DESOLATION SOUND had trouble last out. He got stuck behind a tiring rival on the far turn, lost position, re-rallied after waiting for room, loomed a threat along the inside and then got swallowed late. His third-place finish was very good under the circumstances. Class drop from maiden-75 to maiden-50 seems curious considering how well he ran. He will be among the favorites.

SECOND RACE

This Cal-bred maiden-50 is a good spot to take a shot with comeback speedster LUCKY OUTCOME. She flashed keen speed and faded in her debut last fall vs. MSW state-breds, now returns for a claim tag as one of two main front-runners. The other is drawn to her inside, therefore ‘OUTCOME has the tactical edge. First start back, ready to fire. MARJORIE E lost ground and finished an okay third in her debut. She benefits from the experience and extra half-furlong of this six-furlong dash. Likely improvement second time out. GET YOURSELF HOME is the aforementioned pace rival for the top choice. The inside post does her no favors however, considering her history of slow starts and early trouble. She is a front-end contender nonetheless.

THIRD RACE

CINNAMON TWIST crushed $16k claiming 3yo fillies last out by more than four lengths, jumps three levels to $32k first start off the claim by Vladimir Cerin, and meets enough speed to flatter her closing rally. The outside post is a poten- tial benefit for the off-pace filly; Cerin is 7-for-15 first start off the claim since August. UNO TROUBLE MAKER wired similar last out in her second start since adding blinkers. She is quick enough to establish position from the rail, but she faces a serious pace rival to her outside. That is TIGER MOM, whose game is speed. Overmatched in a turf sprint vs. tougher, she drops and returns to preferred dirt footing. AVAIL finished in the money all four sprints.

FOURTH RACE

A big win last out by SKELTON PASS, on this downhill turf course, stamps him the one to beat as he jumps from $20k to $32k first off the claim by Javier Sierra. He has speed but is versatile, and he is a bona fide horse for course. Seven starts on the hill produced two wins, a second and three thirds. He wheels back in 15 days in peak form. SYCAMORE LANE finished last and next-to-last in two starts this year, albeit against tougher company. He drops from stakes to claiming, was gelded since his last start, and trainer David Jacobson is holding a hot hand. By the way, DRF Formulator provides this interesting Jacobson stat that applies to top choice SKELTON PASS: 8 of last 22 horses claimed from Jacobson that started in Southern California won their next start for new connections. ALLABOUTMIKE flashed speed and tired in his comeback, he could improve second start back down a couple notches in class. Win or lose, the front-runner will keep the pace honest.

FIFTH RACE

The 13-start maiden VEILED HEAT merely split the field last out, but her previous three starts were in-the-money finishes fast enough to win this maiden-20 hodgepodge. SECRET OFFER ran okay in her debut vs. tougher company in a Cal-bred special-weight turf sprint; she chased the speed and backed up late. Her “trouble” was inconsequential, she was going nowhere when she got bogged in traffic in the stretch. Regardless, it was a useful debut by the filly, who takes a sudden drop