ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, WITH EXULTATION

FIRST RACE

STOP THINKING debuted on turf and went evenly to finish a distant 3rd behind a wire-to-wire winner; pedigree suggests she can improve on this surface, as she is a half to the good dirt horses Mirai (2 for 2 in his brief career, including a stakes win), and the enigmatic Danebury, who has run some big races on dirt along the way. CARLISLE BELLE also switching from turf to dirt for this after finishing well back in that field behind the top one last time; best Beyer of her career came over this distance. CONSUBSTANTIAL has failed to be competitive in first four starts of her career; stretches out for the first time in a race that doesn’t contain a lot of early speed.

SECOND RACE

OUTSHINE debuting for Pletcher with some pedigree as a full to Bowie, who was a 2yo debut winner at Saratoga a couple of years ago, before missing a lot of time and reinventing himself as a turf horse recently; training right along in Florida on the way into this. STRIKE PLAY a rare 2yo to be unsuccessful on debut for this trainer at Keeneland, especially since he was the favorite, but he was defeated by a stablemate who had more speed in that race; didn’t care for the way he weakened late to lose out of a placing, but he can benefit from that experience. RHYTHMIA has yet to get beyond 3 furlongs in his training, but he has some pedigree to fall back on, even if this is just a test run; dam was a good sprinter in her day, and she has dropped three stakes winners already. We’ll see how Flashback does as a sire, but his FLASHGUN also has a nice pedigree underneath, though he may ultimately want more distance as a half to a pair of stakes winners going longer, including Toasting, who could sprint but was more like a 7-furlong to a mile kind of horse.

THIRD RACE

Have to be concerned with the last to starts from RECRUITING READY as he heads into this race, though there are excuses to be made (faced X Y Jet in the Pelican and caught a sloppy track last time) and he did run a 95 Beyer in his first start of the year; not much other speed to run with him in this spot. FAVORABLE OUTCOME has managed to race only sparingly after a highly-promising start, which may be the main reason that he hasn’t really developed into the horse it once looked like he could be, but he did earn a 104 Beyer late last year before trying the Grade 1 Malibu; did not run well in his seasonal bow, but his Carter was okay in a spot that was just too tough for him. CLASSY CLASS better sprinting and will benefit from this class relief after proving to be no match in the Grade 3 Tom Fool last time; has enough speed to keep forward in this spot.

FOURTH RACE

It’s not as though WITH EXULTATION can’t sprint, but that looked like a prep off the layoff at Aqueduct last month in a race that was won by his stablemate, and he figures tough vs. this field if stepping forward with that one out of the way; form from late last year, albeit in a different barn, makes him hard to beat. MOBRIDGE missed a lot of time after his 4yo campaign concluded, but he got back on track pretty quickly following the long layoff to win three times from his first ten starts, with all of the wins coming at this level; Mott does good work off of layoffs. HIGH MOON won his first ever turf start off the claim for Maker, though he was loose on a slow pace in that race; was once again making the pace vs. 1x competition last time, though that wasn’t a strong field the level.

FIFTH RACE

TOGA CHALLENGER obviously isn’t winning this with another effort like that last one vs. several of

these, but he was taken out of his game to contest the pace in that race, and it’s not like his first start back from the long layoff was a total non-effort while trying to close into a slow pace; ran some strong races from off the pace last summer as a 3yo, and can be a threat here if he can get back into form. MORNING BUZZ the one to beat based on recent strong of races where he just kept upping his game and his figures while rising in class; looking for five in a row after defeating several of these horses on Wood Day, and he won’t be compromised by dynamics. VERY VERY STELLA didn’t run well two back for whatever reason, but he was in too tough here on Derby Day in a race that did not feature a fast pace to set him up, and his form prior to that has been solid for Jacobson; excellent effort three back while coming wide to just miss in a paceless race.

SIXTH RACE

DEEPLY UNDERVALUED dropping way down in class and cutting back for his third start since starting back following a Grade 2 win as a 3yo; have to be at least a little worried about a drop like this, but he did endure a significant setback, but anything close to his good race will be too much for these, and it’s not like Chad doesn’t have an endless supply. BRIAN BAKE S COOKIES back to turf and back to the right level after getting outrun on dirt off the claim; better on turf and he has the tactical speed to pull a trip. BASELINE second off the layoff after cutting the pace and tiring over yielding ground in his first start back; best, and likely only, chance if he can get loose on the lead.

SEVENTH RACE

SOPHIE N took no money for her debut at Parx, and she proceeded to break slowly and get outrun in that race, before rallying in the very late stages; interesting shipping in and stretching out for an underrated trainer, who has an overall positive ROI for all starters over the past five years, and who is 2 for his last 6 with maiden second-time starters stretching out on dirt, including a winner at 24/1 odds. PAS DE DEUCE ran fine first-time out while chasing wide and staying on for 3rd at the end without threatening to win on the opening Saturday of the meet; adds Lasix and she is bred to stretch out as a daughter of Curlin and the Grade 1 winning mare Acey Ducey. A SONG FOR

SUE switching from turf to dirt and picking up Irad for her third career start; bred to handle distance and she should be plenty legged-up now.

EIGHTH RACE

MO FLASH has improved in recent starts on the main track, but that doesn’t have to be due to surface as she was fine on turf at the start of her career while facing some tough fields at Woodbine, including a tough trip chance in her final starts as a 2yo; like her coming back to grass at this level. AWSUM ROAR was heavily-favored in her return to turf last month at Aqueduct, and she was confidently ridden in that race before taking over in the stretch, but she drifted and tired late to get closed down in a disappointing effort; horse that caught her did come back with another good effort in her next start. AVERY MAEVE won her first two starts sprinting on turf as a 3yo, and he continued to hold her own at this level last year despite going 0-6; has to be ready off the layoff.

NINTH RACE

HIGH PROMISE prepped on dirt behind an impressive winner off the layoff, now switches back to turf where he held his won vs. some tough competition last year at the MSW level; think this is the best spot he’s landed in so far, and he has run well enough in his two starts in NY for that not to be a concern. POWER BOSS also back to his best surface after trying dirt over the winter to no avail; has to improve, but is eligible to do so as he makes his 3yo debut on grass off a layoff. LIL COMMISSIONER just missed to a solid horse in Sand Dancer while making his turf debut at this level last year, and he went to the outside coming to the stretch in his next start, while the top three finishers in that race all stayed toward the inside; lightly-raced for a very good trainer as he makes his 3yo debut.