ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, ESCAPADE

FIRST RACE

SUPERSECRET won a PIM turf sprint last May 28 coming back from a layoff with a work pattern similar to the one he brings into this start. Appears to be ample pace to set up his run. Looks like decent chance connections would scratch him if this is off turf, but would love to see him in on dirt, actually, since his style (combined with all the dirt pace entered) perfectly fits the way the PIM main track played last week. CAME BACK a very rare claim for these connections. Showed up on Colt’s Neck work tab April 7 and figures fit enough for this short sprint by now. His off-turf, sloppy-track success could be meaningful here. Main-trackonly FINAL FORUM probably will be favored if the race is on dirt, and he not only fits, but can stalk from the outside, but the concern is he gets pulled into a strong pace just enough to make him vulnerable late if last week’s track profile holds.

SECOND RACE

SHOOT THE GAP’s first start outside maiden ranks produced a seventh of nine last out, but the finishing position isn’t representative. Was caught inside behind horses in a claustrophobic spot down the backstretch and around the turn, and while finally clear tried to rally up the rail on a LRL card that appeared to have at least a mildly dead rail. There’s little longer-term upside here, but in this particular race he can do better. PATRIOT SAINT is 1/33 wins and doesn’t appear to race with, shall we say, a lot of strong intent? He does has an outside draw and will be off the pace and off the fence - both positives going by PIM’s first week — and seems to handle wet tracks, which could come in handy. SVENTASTIC can stick to the outside from this draw while dropping to his lowest class level.

THIRD RACE

Since switching to the MD circuit and joining his current barn, main-track-only MUTARAAMY has two second-place finishes from his two dirt starts, both of which would fit snugly in this $16K N2L claimer. Until we see a change in the main-track trend that held through Sunday, we’ll be looking for outside closers / stalkers in PIM dirt races. KABOOM got off to a poor start, then got into a speed duel while making his turf debut last out. He might well suit grass racing better than that one showing. COLONEL ANDY figures solidly favored but not enthused taking a short price on a horse making first start since October on a claimingprice drop of $24,000.

FOURTH RACE

Gonna take the worst of the pricing with MONTANA SUNSET, who didn’t show a lot first time out but is trained by everybody’s favorite 2yo trainer, Wesley Ward. Does exit a KEE race in which she broke slowly from an inside draw, and since worked back a bullet 3f there. On top for lack of an appealing alternative. MARKEESA shows a $4K purchase price and debuts in an MSW with a solid-seeming work pattern, but the barn is 18-0-0-1 with firsters over the last five years. Granted, that’s not a huge sample, and trends were made to be defied. NO REFUNDS missed by a head as the chalk first time out at LRL but is stuck down on the inside while back on short rest.

FIFTH RACE

CLEARLY SUPER worked May 1 at LRL and raced May 5 at CD, giving connections access to a live Derby Day experience. Just sayin’. Race might best be ignored, and otherwise he’s a solid fit here, especially if the race comes off, which gives him best chance of making it in from AE list. SIR DOUGLAS raced with the race flow when a distant but decent third last out facing similar foes at LRL, but that start has the hint of a stepping-stone to this one. Hard to know exactly what to make of ENGLISH TUDOR’s pasting of $12.5K maidenclaiming foes lat time, but leaning toward idea it’s not immediately repeatable.

SIXTH RACE

MEO DESPERADO, well drawn if the track remains

outside-biased, won over a sloppy track in his career debut, which could be meaningful in this N2L starter / claimer. Just a $16K MCL winner but showed he fits at this class with near miss two starts back, and won’t hold lesser turf try against him. TO BLAVE holds appeal in many areas - right style, class fit, encouraging work pattern for comeback run - but has won just once in 24 starts. CASH

EXCHANGE is capable and appears well meant but might get just a touch too much of the pace. ESCAPADE’s turf-sprint debut, one of just two starts, produced a good second-place finish in a nine-horse BEL MSW, and since she’s making her first start now since Aug. 6 and didn’t post a published workout last year after that start, it’s fair to guess something went amiss in that SAR turf route. The trainer does strong work preparing horses at Bridlewood’s training facilities, and this filly might also handle dirt if it comes to that. Main-track-only HOLIDAY TIME debuts for trainer B Trimble, whose MD starters this year, nearly all in the MSW or allowance ranks, seem to fire nearly every time. Doubt she is a speedy type - a good thing the way the dirt played last week. Maintrack-only BELLERUE debuts for trainer A Delacour, solidly proven with firsters like she. Lively, encouraging works.

EIGHTH RACE

Would be more skeptical of LEGIT if not for Mo Smart’s performance Sunday at Pimlico. Also trained by T Pletcher, that filly came into a twoturn first-level allowance race off a very similar pattern and won by 13 lengths. Legit won first out at 7f but certainly bred to handle the stretch and might just be - legit. AMERICAN LINCOLN solid if unspectacular fourth in the Tesio, and didn’t seem to travel quite as well as he had in the previous AQU MSW blowout. Might have a little more to give and could offer some value with Legit likely to be hammered in the win pool. THREES OVER DEUCES has two wins and a third in his three starts around more than one turn, and appears to be working forwardly for this.

NINTH RACE

AY CARUMBA turned in a solid debut performance last out breaking from the rail in a bulky field while racing one maiden-claiming class higher than this. Typical second-start improvement could get it done. Not sure about FLYING CRUSADER on turf but definitely interested if this race is rained onto the main track. First Lasix and solid-seeming PIM work pattern for comeback run. FORT BRANDY also could benefit from a surface switch.