Mother Nature has key role in Murphy, Sir Barton lineups

BALTIMORE – Sometimes races can be won at the entry booth. Several trainers with 3-year-olds eligible for two Preakness Day undercard stakes at Pimlico, the James W. Murphy and Sir Barton, entered both spots, banking on a combination of factors ultimately giving them a better chance.

Four horses are crossentered in the Murphy, which has nine starters on the program, and the Sir Barton, which has 11. Clearly, either or both will be affected by scratches, with the forecast’s heavy rain playing a major role in determining the final lineups.

The Murphy is scheduled for a mile on the turf, and even though track officials will do everything in their power not to transfer any of the Friday and Saturday turf stakes to the main track, they may be helpless against Mother Nature. A few days of rain, including a Friday deluge, were to be followed by “morning rain and drizzle” for Saturday, according to an AccuWeather forecast. No one is sure exactly what to expect after that.

“Most of all, we’ll be looking out for the horses,” Gary Capuano, who cross-entered Threes Over Deuces and Whirlin Curlin in both races, said Thursday.

“If the turf races come off, we’ll keep both in the Murphy. If they stay on [turf], we’ll probably stay home. We’ll just have to see how the track is.”

Lacey Gaudet, who entered Takedown in both races, said she also is inclined to stay in the Murphy, but only if it comes off the turf, since the field likely will be weaker than the Sir Barton. “Fingers crossed,” she said. Mike Maker, with California Night in both races, said he would consult with the colt’s owner, Kirk Wycoff of Three Diamonds Farm, before a final decision is made.

In case the Murphy stays on a soggy turf, bettors could settle on the following as their favorites: Tap Daddy, a twotime winner as a 2-year-old over yielding courses; Black Stetson, an 18-1 last-out winner of an ungraded turf-sprint stakes at Aqueduct; and Say the Word, an improving lastout maiden winner with ample turf experience.

Off the turf (at 1 1/16 miles), the Murphy becomes a real scramble, with plausible favorites being California Night, assuming he can rebound off a 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, and Threes Over Deuces, a consistent performer at Mid-Atlantic tracks.

The Murphy is named for the longtime Maryland-based trainer who died in 2009 after a 44-year career.

It goes as the fifth race, with post time set for 12:51 p.m. Eastern.

The 2017 winner was Yoshida, who two weeks ago won the Grade 1 Old Forester Turf Classic on the Kentucky Derby undercard.

The Sir Barton, which goes at 1 1/16 miles on the main track, obviously could be noticeably altered by attrition, but, regardless, the horses who best fit the prevailing conditions of “non winners of an open stakes” are Pony Up, second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks and third in the Lexington, and Ax Man, whose last-out allowance win at Santa Anita equated to a gaudy 101 Beyer Speed Figure.

Until early this week, Pony Up was under serious consideration for the Preakness. The confirmed stretch-runner will have John Velazquez riding for Calumet Farm and Todd Pletcher and will break from post 2.

Ax Man, trained by Bob Baffert for Hal and Patti Earnhardt, could prove a difficult catch out front when ridden by Mike Smith. Having arrived here Wednesday in the company of his Kentucky Derby-winning stablemate, Justify, the speedy homebred has sandwiched two big Beyers (he got a 97 in his Jan. 1 career debut) around a distant fourthplace finish as the 2-5 favorite in his only stakes attempt, the Grade 2 San Vicente at seven furlongs. He was assigned post 8, although he could be closer to the rail after scratches are known Saturday morning.

The Sir Barton directly precedes the Preakness as race 12 (post, 5:39).

The race is named for the colt who swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes in 1919, prior to the races being known as an ensemble. Retroactively, he was dubbed the first Triple Crown winner.

The 2017 Sir Barton winner was No Mo Dough, owned by Alex Campbell Jr.