2018 Preakness Pace Projector

How does the Projector work?

The TimeformUS Pace Projector attempts to predict how a race will unfold early. It displays the horses ranked by the TimeformUS Early Speed Rating – fastest in the front, slowest in the rear. The image shows where the horses are projected to be after the first half-mile of a route race. The front is displayed to the right. It also attempts to determine if the pace of the race is likely to be fast, average, or slow.

What is the Pace Projector saying about the Preakness Stakes?

This race is likely to have a fast pace, according to the Pace Projector. This fast pace designation is based on the number of horses with a preference for racing on or near the lead and how closely those horses are rated on the aforementioned Early Speed Rating. Of the eight horses entered, three have been designated with a TimeformUS running style Speed and four more are labeled Tracker. Morning-line favorite and Kentucky Derby winner Justify (No. 7) appears to have an early speed edge on this group and is shown with a clear lead. Diamond King (No. 4) is predicted to be second. He has shown plenty of speed sprinting and successfully stretched out to nine furlongs when winning the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park. He has never run fast enough to be considered a contender to win this race.

Are there any quirks to this particular distance, surface, or field size that the algorithm adjusts for?

Unlike the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby, the “Favors Horses On/Near Early Lead” designation is an available option for the shorter Preakness, but that didn’t come into play here. More speed horses are required to display the Fast Pace label on dirt than on turf or synthetic surfaces since the pace for dirt races is generally faster than those on other surfaces. The Preakness field size is average and is not part of the reason the Fast Pace designation is displayed.

Based on a more nuanced, granular look at the past performances, from watching the races, knowing the jockeys and trainers tendencies, etc., which horse do you think is likely to show more early speed than in this projector?

Diamond King drew inside of Justify and is likely to be hustled from the gate by jockey Javier Castellano to try and secure the lead. Justify has the speed to lead, but rider Mike Smith may be content to sit to his outside and take over at a later point.

Does any horse stand out as exceptional on TimeformUS Late Pace Figures if the pace turns out to be hot?

Lone Sailor (No. 2) is the only horse in the field with a TimeformUS Running Style other than Speed or Tracker. He is listed as a Midpack type and he his 109 Late Pace Rating is 17 points better than any other horse in the field. Good Magic (No. 5) and Bravazo (No. 8) are tied for second at 92. Lone Sailor rates a very good chance to get into the exotics and is 15-1 on the morning line.

How have recent editions of the Preakness Stakes developed from a pace standpoint?

The last three Preakness Stakes have featured a fast pace with multiple fractions being coded in red by TimeformUS. The two prior races had an average pace and are not color coded by TimeformUS. In those five years, two horses have led wire to wire (American Pharoah, Oxbow), two more were in a tracking position early (Cloud Computing, California Chrome), and one (Exaggerator) closed from eighth in an 11-horse field to score. It should be noted that American Pharoah and Exaggerator won over sloppy tracks and that condition is a very real possibility Saturday.