Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
The two chalks can walk the walk in Preakness
If your handicapping game involves identifying shortpriced horses with vulnerabilities and betting against them, then Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico could be dangerously close to the kind of race you would watch more than bet.
Justify was tremendous winning the Kentucky Derby. He was days the best. Justify disputed a very fast early pace, a pace that would have caused many good 3-year-olds to crumble going the Derby distance, and yet he still bounded away from his field through the stretch.
As was the case in his first three starts, including a powerful score in the Santa Anita Derby that made him the clearcut Kentucky Derby favorite, Justify never allowed anyone to think he was in danger of losing for even a fleeting instant.
Justify also obliterated that little 136-year Kentucky Derby streak against horses who did not race at 2. Not bad at all for a colt who only began his career Feb. 18.
You don’t have to be Andy Beyer Jr. to know that Justify is an extremely likely winner of this Preakness at a very short price. You also don’t have to be a savant to know that Good Magic, last year’s champion 2-year-old male, has a huge edge on the rest of this Preakness field as the short-priced second choice.
Good Magic was primed to run a big race in the Derby, and he did. Good Magic was close to the rapid Derby pace from the outset – not on it, like Justify, but close to it – and he fought on gamely through the stretch, if in vain.
Although Good Magic saved the place in the Derby by only a head from Audible, pace considerations insist he ran considerably better.
The Derby’s fast and disputed pace was tailor-made for closers like Audible. In comparison to those who were involved in the pace and did all the dirty work, the Derby setup made some closers appear better than they really were.
The margin between Good Magic and Audible might have been a mere head, but after having raced close to Justify’s wicked pace from the outset, Good Magic, for my money, did far more meaningful running.
I made Justify the 2-5 favorite in Daily Racing Form’s morning line for the Preakness. That’s how likely a winner I believe the general betting public will see him. I think 3-5 is about as high as he can go. Good Magic is second choice in my line at 5-2. I don’t see him going off any higher, and he might actually go a bit lower if the betting public really turns their back on the remainder of this Preakness field, which is possible. If these odds are in the ballpark then simple math says the odds on the third choice in Preakness betting (Quip, I think) will be all the way out in the mid-teens.
The “beat-the-favorite” crowd, of which I am usually a member, but not this time, will likely base their position on Justify’s short, two-week turnaround. While I agree a two-week turnaround is tough these days for the average horse coming off a huge effort, I don’t believe “Justify” and “average” belong in the same sentence and think the short turnaround issue in his case is a non-starter.
The thing is, Good Magic and the others coming out of the Derby have the same quick turnaround to deal with while also having to face the formidable task of closing a substantial talent gap of varying proportions. And while the new shooters in this Preakness have no concerns about a quick turnaround, they have an even wider talent gap to worry about. As a rule, and with very few exceptions, the best 3-year-olds at this time of year by far are the ones who run in the Kentucky Derby.
So, what do you do with a race like the Preakness where the prohibitive favorite and the strong second choice look so tough to beat? Well, you could get creative in multi-race exotics, take Justify as the bingo free space in this leg of whatever pick X you’re participating in, and play for surprises in the other legs of your sequence.
Or, you could try and turn a tiny exacta into perhaps a palatable trifecta, and get a horse back for third who others might be selling short. For me (and I almost can’t believe I’m saying this), that horse is Bravazo.
Frankly, Bravazo was one of my first eliminations in the Derby. His final prep in the Louisiana Derby was dreadful – a distant eighth-place finish after lugging out much of the way, earning a maiden claiming-like Beyer Speed Figure of 64. And he was bringing a six-week layoff into the Derby, to boot.
But Bravazo ran much better in Kentucky than anyone other than those closest to him could have expected. He was bumped soundly behind a few strides after the start, found himself much farther off the pace than he is accustomed to, and raced wide throughout. And yet he actually made a bit of a run into fourth in upper stretch.
Bravazo did flag a little late and wound up sixth. In his defense, though, he could have been short since he couldn’t have gotten very much out of his Louisiana Derby debacle, and it was mid-February since he last ran a representative race. Bravazo should be more fit for this go-around.
Maybe fit enough to get third, behind Justify and Good Magic.