Lone Sailor

STRENGTHS: This talented colt has been pretty unlucky this year. Two back he ran well, despite running on a rail that wasn’t the place to be. In the Derby, he got stuck in and among horses while in the midst of making a run. He wasn’t going to win, but the margin of defeat would have been less and he might have been third or fourth with a clean run. He touted himself in his two April workouts, and an improved performance would be no surprise. Wet weather shouldn’t be any impediment based on his romp in a Saratoga maiden race.

WEAKNESSES: Another for whom the win might be out of reach just based on figures and form. He just hasn’t run as fast as Justify or Good Magic. Race design could be another issue for him as he’ll have to make up ground against those two. Trainer Tom Amoss is a believer in the bounce theory, and the 14-day turnaround feels quick until you look at the numbers. He’s 69 for 205 (34 percent winners) with horses returning in 16 days or fewer over the past five years, with 64 percent in the money and a $2.07 return on a $2 investment. Clearly, he has a sense of when they can come back quickly.

BETTING VALUE: This one feels more interesting as a flyer around 20-1 and definitely one to mix in in exactas in a race where it feels like one of the big two could easily no show. Could be the value of the race. – Peter Fornatale

SIRE: Majestic Warrior is a Grade 1 winner at seven furlongs who earned both of his career wins at age 2. His average progeny winning distance of 6.91 furlongs is in the lower tier among this year’s Preakness sires. Lone Sailor would be Majestic Warrior’s first Preakness starter. Majestic Warrior is the sire of 2013 Kentucky Oaks winner Princess of Sylmar, as well as Lady Sabelia, a Grade 2 winner at seven furlongs, and Declan’s Warrior, who won a Grade 3 at the same distance.

DAM: Ambitious was winless in nine career starts, but she finished second at a mile and 70 yards. Lone Sailor is her first foal, and he is a maiden winner at seven furlongs. Lone Sailor is Grade 1 placed at 1 1/16 miles and Grade 2 placed at 1 1/8 miles.

OUTLOOK: There’s not a ton here that begs for added distance or higher class, but Princess of Sylmar’s Oaks win proves a strong performance on a big stage is not outside the realm of possibility.

– Joe Nevills