Sporting Chance

STRENGTHS: He’s the Grade 1 stakes winner in this Preakness field you probably don’t think of being a Grade 1 winner, but he is, having won the Hopeful last summer. He’s turned in some good efforts since, specifically his third in the Southwest after some stretch trouble in his first attempt around two turns off a 5 1/2-month, injury-induced layoff, and his third in the Blue Grass. His Blue Grass performance – which earned him a disqualification to fourth – was something. He ducked out severely inside the eighth pole, not unlike the way he ducked out late in the Hopeful. Despite virtually running sideways late in the Blue Grass, he still was beaten only a little more than three lengths for it all by Good Magic, last year’s champion 2-year-old male who then came back to finish a terrific second in the Kentucky Derby. Sporting Chance is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who has six Preakness victories to his credit.

WEAKNESSES: The antics he demonstrated in the Blue Grass and Hopeful suggest he can be his own worst enemy, which is problematic at this level of competition. He has zero margin for error against the best horses in this Preakness because it is an open question if he is good enough to be just marginally competitive with them. Even if he didn’t have the best of trips, his fourth in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard was disappointing and resulted in his lowest Beyer Speed Figure since his debut.

BETTING VALUE: He’ll be a big price, so I won’t throw cold water if you want to use him underneath in your vertical wagers.

– Mike Watchmaker

SIRE: Tiznow was named Horse of the Year in 2000, and he won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2000 and 2001. Only one of his 15 career starts came at a distance shorter than 1 1/16 miles. His foals post an average winning distance of 7.65 furlongs, putting the sire at the top of the Preakness class. Tiznow’s runners of note around two turns include champion Folklore, Canadian champion Bear Now, Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed, Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara, Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Tourist, Travers Stakes winner Colonel John, and Blue Grass Stakes winner Irap. Sporting Chance would be Tiznow’s fourth Preakness starter, following Titletown Five (ninth, 2013), Dynamic Impact (seventh, 2014), and Term of Art (10th, 2017).

DAM: Wynning Ride is a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles and Grade 1 placed at 1 1/4 miles. She is the dam of two foals to race, and both are winners. Catcher, by Tale of the Cat, maxed out as a winner at seven furlongs. Sporting Chance is a Grade 1 winner at seven furlongs, and he’s Grade 3 placed at 1 1/16 miles.

OUTLOOK: Plenty of distance and class credentials on both sides. Sporting Chance has a reputation for finding trouble, but he’s got the page for the Preakness distance. – Joe Nevills